[westmanguy]

I remember we had this up on the federal election. Like I mentioned before, it seems like CKA is disproportionately made up of a lot of British Columbians so there should be interest!

When the polls close at 8pm PT (11pm ET) tonight we can post our live reactions to the seat counts/concession speech/victory speech/etc. here.

First off! Predictions?! There are 84 seats up for grabs in the BC legislature. A party needs a minimum of 43 seats to form a majority.

My best guess:

NDP Majority - 47 seats

Liberal Opposition - 34 seats (Christy Clark barely hangs on to Vancouver-Point Grey over former BC Civil Liberties Union President David Eby)

Greens - 1 (UVIC Professor on the Island ousts Carole James in Victoria-Beacon Hill; Jane Stark loses her seat and resigns)

Independents - 2 (Vikki Huntington in Delta South and Bob Simpson in Cariboo-North)
------
Other Thoughts:

Christy will immediately resign if she loses her own seat. If she hangs on to Vancouver-Point Grey she's a political animal and will fight on but the 801 movement and cut throat BC Liberals will be out for blood and even though I believe she'll have a strong showing tonight, she'll be out as leader after a week.

Vancouver Island will go ridiculously NDP. Liberal shut out there. Southern Interior will remain steadfastly conservative and Kelowna/Kamloops ridings will all remain Liberal. Metro Vancouver, as usual, will be a mixed bag leaning NDP this time around.

Popular vote, despite all the back and forth polls, I see being under 5% difference between Liberals and NDP. Something like 46% NDP-41% Liberal. BC Conservatives utterly implode and do terribly. BC Liberal "free enterprise coalition" survives and is forced to rebuild. BC Liberal brand remains as well. Party embarks on soul searching, new leadership, etc. Union hacks and ideological environmentalists froth at their mouths after being out of power for over a decade and pressure Dix to give them their socialist wet dream bucket list. BC NDP, in true fashion, goes into self destruction mode half way through their term and by 2015 it will be ridiculously ironic how all the same people bitching and moaning about the Liberals/Clark will be berating the NDP daily.

Having nerdishly studied BC politics since I was 12 the history tends to point to me to a sort of sad pattern:

There is a "business as usual" party that re-invents itself and every decade or so that dominates BC politics. They stay in power too long, have too much corruption, NDP takes a romp in the subsequent election from an outraged public. BC NDP, doesn't know how to tame their bat-shit crazy ideological factions and ends up mismanaging the province so terribly that the new re-incarnated "free enterprise coalition" comes back a roarin' the next election to re-establish another decade or so of stable rule.

Social Credit of W.A.C. Bennet -> In power 20 years (1952-72)
Meets NDP of Dave Barrett -> In power 3-4 years (1972-75)
Social Credit of Bill Bennet and Bill Vander Zalm -> In power 16 years (1975-1991)
Meets NDP of Mike Harcourt and Glen Clark -> In power 10 years (1991-2001)
**Caveat in Election 1996, The BC Liberals of Gordon Campbell actually won the popular vote 42%-39.5%, but there support wasn't as diffuse as the NDP so they lost
BC Liberal reign of Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark (2001-Present)
Meets likely NDP defeat of Adrian Dix.

So y'all can see there is a depressing pattern there....business as usual party dominates for a decade plus, then goes down in flames over scandal and forced resignation to be replaced by an ideologically incompent NDP that screws things up so bad that the new evolved version of the free-enterprise coalition retakes the throne in the subsequent election.

Also read the other day 3 of the 4 last BC Premiers were forced to resign. We sure have quite the political history to be proud of!

On forth to the NDP era!

[andyt]

Pretty good guess. We'll see. I think James has got a lot of cred and will be tough to beat.

I'd like to see a slim NDP majority. Slim to keep the from going hog wild. I would also like to see the last of Crispie Clark no matter what happens. God she grates on me.

[westmanguy]

andyt andyt:

Pretty good guess. We'll see. I think James has got a lot of cred and will be tough to beat.

I'd like to see a slim NDP majority. Slim to keep the from going hog wild. I would also like to see the last of Crispie Clark no matter what happens. God she grates on me.

I screwed this up.

Its actually Green Party leader Jane Sterk who is running against BC NDP MLA (& former leader) Carole James in Victoria--Beacon Hill. James will win easily. Sterk loses and resigns Green leadership.

The BC Greens star candidate is UVIC professor Andrew Weaver who is running against BC Liberal cabinet minister Ida Chong in Oak Bay--Gordon Head. I think he will win that riding in a tight 3 way race.

And I agree, despite everything, I think the BC Conservative implosion is going to bolster the BC Liberals to a respectable strong opposition showing and we'll have a slim BC NDP majority after tonight.

Which, honestly going into all of this, is the best I could hope for. If they have a >5 seat majority than they can tame their ideological factions a bit more. But we all know the unions and environmentalists are out for major change and fast. Its gonna be an interesting ride that's for sure.

[xerxes]

It'll be interesting to be sure. Especially if the tightening in the polls of recent days is reflected in the results.

Either way,

[Public_Domain]

Why isn't there a "Nobody" option..?

[Gunnair]

I predict a minority government.

Watch Cummins from behind to landslide it Alberta PC style!

[Freakinoldguy]

Gunnair Gunnair:

I predict a minority government.

Watch Cummins from behind to landslide it Alberta PC style!

Hmmm, 2 votes for the Conservatives

I wonder who they would be.

[Gunnair]

Freakinoldguy Freakinoldguy:

Gunnair Gunnair:

I predict a minority government.

Watch Cummins from behind to landslide it Alberta PC style!

Hmmm, 2 votes for the Conservatives

I wonder who they would be.

Not this cat. I tried, but the tang of the massive bed shitting they did drove me away.

Cummins will get dumped after this and they'll find a leader that doesn't look or sounds like he's decomposing.

[Canadian_Mind]

Looks like the Libs may have it, 43 seats lead so far.

[DanSC]

I'm rooting for Ms. Clarke just because she's attractive.

[Gunnair]

I am gobsmacked so far.

Wow.

[Canadian_Mind]

That's not a bad thing, is it Gunny? Looks like the Liberals are poised to have better numbers than 2005.

[Gunnair]

Canadian_Mind Canadian_Mind:

That's not a bad thing, is it Gunny? Looks like the Liberals are poised to have better numbers than 2005.

Well, frankly, I'm amazed given the initial polling numbers. We're seeing a second Alberta CPC style resurgence in spite of polls.

That being said, I'd have liked to see some pressure on the Liberals after all of their shenanigans.

Just plain amazed. It's like watching a Leafs game!

[DanSC]

Judging from the Vancouver Sun's graphic, the Conservatives are on track to win zero seats. Is that a sign to disband the BC Conservatives?

[Gunnair]

DanSC DanSC:

Judging from the Vancouver Sun's graphic, the Conservatives are on track to win zero seats. Is that a sign to disband the BC Conservatives?

No. It's a sign to dump their zombie undead leader though.