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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:52 am
 


Isn't it risky? Oil prices are destined to steadily rise, for the USA as a new major oil importing country (some experts assert that it has outstripped Saudi Arabia in oil output) is deeply interested in higher profits and now it can really influence the international oil market. So, I'm absolutely sure the prices will go up in the nearest perspective and the price of $80 a barrel for next year is quite probable.

I guess it should be a big worry for Canada now, the biggest recipient of the oil import from the USA.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 3:34 am
 


Canada exports oil to the US. Eastern Canada receives oil through a pipeline called line 9, that oil comes from an ocean port at Portland Maine. That pipeline is connected to every oil refinery in Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. My understanding is ships delivering oil to that port still deliver oil from the Middle East. We aren't getting oil from the US.

Geopolitics has drive oil prices down. The US had to recover its economy from the collapse of 2008, it used to be a major oil exporter, and oil continues to be a major part of their economy. Traditional oil wells no longer produce enough to meet their needs. They receive oil from Canada, a large part comes from tar sands, now called oil sands. Americans noticed they had shale oil; a completely different resource, which had to be process differently, but conceptually it is similar. Just like tar sands, this resource must be mined then processed to convert it into oil. The energy required to do so, carbon emissions, and cost are all comparable to tar sands. Furthermore, many Americans wanted to end dependence on Middle East oil. Conventional oil wells, tar sands in Canada, and shale oil in the US together produce enough oil that US should no longer have to import oil from the Middle East.

However, oil producers in the Middle East do not want to lose their largest customer. So they have engaged in a price war. Their goal is to retain market share. They are not likely to win.

These are the primary forces. There's another geopolitical force. Some policy makers in the US noticed Russia has become a major oil exporter. The price war is driving prices down, but since Russia gets so much revenue from oil, reducing oil prices hurt Russia. American policy makes like the fact low oil prices hurt Russia, so they want it to continue. They will use what influence they have to perpetuate low oil prices. Yes, oil companies in the US would like higher profits, but the Middle East desperate attempt to retain market share together with US policy makers who want to hurt Russia will ensure oil prices stay low.

Canadians already know we don't import oil from the US. And in Canada we talk about "USA" or "the US" but usually don't say "the USA". This makes me suspect you aren't Canadian. You're Russian, aren't you?

By the way, the oil pipeline mentioned, the one called "line 9", was built by Canada. It was originally intended to deliver Alberta oil to eastern Canadian provinces, but was shut down due to internal Canadian politics. Very quickly the company that operates it found an alternative profitable purpose for it: to deliver Middle East oil to the American Midwest, including Chicago and Detroit. Since Canadian oil refineries are connected to it, those refineries get some of the oil from that pipeline. But the pipeline was built by Canada, and reversing the flow was due to Canadian internal politics.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 4:26 am
 


Umm, we import a lot of oil every day from the US and other non-Canadian sources.

rants-raves-f12/736-000-barrels-per-day-t116446.html?hilit=barrels%20per%20day


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