[Scape]

[Sunnyways]

I’d say they’ll get there before then.

[bootlegga]

The one thing this misses is that the USN is in the same strategic position as the RN was in World War 1 and 2 - it is a force with global responsibilities, while it's opponent only needs to worry about its region. So, just like the RN had to base ships all over the world, while Germany only had to worry about the North Atlantic and nearby seas, the USN has fleets all over the world, while China only needs to worry about the Eastern Pacific.

Having said that, even with their huge growth over the past decade, I think the PLAN isn't anywhere close to matching the USN ship for ship or man for man, as the PLAN has little blue water experience and zero combat experience, while the USN boasts plenty of both. That's why the PLAN needs to be twice as big as the USN, because the personnel quality simply isn't there.

That could change in a couple decades, but I doubt China can afford a major war even less than the USA could.

[Scape]

Neither side want war. They want everything up to that point as the tension create a chaos that is a ladder. Much like the manufactured islands, China is always looking to expand their influence they are testing the limits of what they can get away with and then using that to push new advantages.

China is perfectly fine selling the US the rope it needs to hang itself but it also knows that it simply will collapse under its own weight if it no longer has a market to sell to. China has yet to figure out how to exist post US hegemony but they are learning, their attempts to ram 5G down everyone's throat is testament to that.