[Bruce_the_vii]

Poverty figures this high would be politically explosive. They would affect everyone in some way. Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver are latent with politics. Watch for something to happen.

You can check the figures by going to Statistics Canada English homepage and finding "Community Profile" on the menu on the left. A form pops up immediately and you just enter a city. The proverty figures are at the bottom of the list that appears.

[Bruce_the_vii]

____________USA Financial Benefits of full employment

_____________Best Cities Benchmarks 2006

City_______________Official_________Adults in_______Estimated
________________Unemployment____Labour Force__Real Unemployment
__________________Percent__________Percent_________Percent

Madison_____________3.6____________73.7___________(same)
Des Moines__________4.2____________73.8___________(same) Minneapolis__________5.3____________73.6___________(same)



.******************************************************

_______________________USA Nov. 2008
Real Unemployment Based on 72%* in Labour Force of Best Cities 2006


___________________Official_________Adults in_______Estimated
________________Unemployment____Labour Force__Real Unemployment
__________________Percent__________Percent_________Percent

USA_________________6.7_______________65.8_________14.7


If real unemployment in the USA was reduced from that 14.7% to 6% over time there’d be 8.7% more people working. As labour income is 56% of the GDP the GDP would expand 15.54%. This is from an estimated $14.3 trillion USD currently to $16.52 trillion. That’s $2.22 a trillion increase, with no additional costs to the governments. Federal revenues, at 22% of GDP, would expand $490 billion annually. The world needs American to balance its national budget and getting people back in the labour force is a way to do it.

The issue is the gray area of people marginally attached to the economy. These are people who are not currently working but might like a job. They are not considered unemployed by statisticians as they say they are not looking for work during the government survey. The American Bureau of Labor Statistics tries to measure this group and comes up with the figure of 1.1% nationally in contrast to my estimate from the track record of cities at full employment which puts it at 8.0% in 2008. The government surveys are a telephone interview which is to say the answers are spur of the moment and are probably not adequate to guide economic policy by. My 72% benchmark participation rate is consistent in best cities across the USA, the UK and Canada.

* These benchmark cities have slightly fewer people age 65 and over so the participation rate has to be adjusted downward.

[Bruce_the_vii]

I posted real American unemployment back in November appears to be 14.7%. I got one response elsewhere that the Bureau of Labour Statistics alternate measure is some 12%. However the BLS adds in the involuntary part time of 4.6%. I didn't. I would divide the 4.6% by two, because part time jobs on average might be half time, for 2.3% and add that to my 14.7% for real unemployment in the USA of 17.0% The track record of the best cities is an entirely reasonabe measure and the probability is that unemployment in the USA is actually 17.0%. However you can't get anyone to comment, CKA posters or economists that I find on the web.

[Bruce_the_vii]

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2 ... 1-sun.html

The leader of the opposition in Ontario had to step down after losing a by-election. The NDP have some new leader, some fool of a female that doesn’t know male jobs from female jobs. So I’m offering a speech on Premier McGuinty’s latest.

He is going to spend $32.5 billion on infrastructure to fix the economy. Manufacturing jobs are down 1/3 of a million over four years so he is going to replace them with government infrastructure work. It’ll take a few years of course. However in the next two years there’ll be ¼ of a million new immigrants to Ontario, some 150,000 workers that will take up half the jobs created total. Actually immigration has been ahead of the economy for some time and the whole stimulus package will be required to mop up unemployment from immigration. The stimulus package will be a net zero with respect to the any recession that might be around.

To figure this out you do not need to be extra smart, highly educated or as brave as lion rather what it takes is about a minute of thought. You need the personality to have a minute of thought.

The $32.5 billion will be borrowed as the want of the Ontario government for the last 40 years, will never be paid back and interest charges will eventually double the cost of everything purchased. A $2 billion subway will become $4 billion and so on.

The $32.5 billion looks good in the light of Obama’s projected deficits spending of $9 trillion. This contrast is what will make politically possible. It’s Obama contagion.

It’s unfortunate but in Canada politics is a barens when it comes to personality by the practitioners. But hey I have the personality to figure all this out.

[Bruce_the_vii]

I have some data on the free market and low wages. I paid Statistics Canada to run the labour force tapes to get the incident of low wages in Calgary and then in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver. Calgary, the oil patch, had a strong economy in 2008 while the three biggest cities in Canada are swamped with immigrants.

City………………………..Percent of workers over 20
…………………………….earning $12 an hour or less

Calgary....................................7%

Montreal...................................17%
Toronto……............................17%
Vancouver...............................15%

A tighter labour market should improve the bottom in particular because employers run out of bodies at minimum wage so there’s inflation. The data above is the actual result.

At one in six workers in the main cities most people would be touched by this by their extended family. That’s main stream politics although this fact is not generally recognized.

[Bruce_the_vii]

I have been able to embellish one of my numbers.

In the deep recession of the 1990s immigration was maintained at record levels. Toronto got 558,000 new immigrants before the economy recovered to it's previous jobs total. It took 6 years and 5 months to recover the jobs lost, to Nov. 1997, and in that time that many foreigners were allowed into the greater area. No one noticed. That is except me. I realized the cost would be a depression of family income and I paid Statistics Canada to run the income tapes. In the City of Toronto half of the greater area family income was down 15% by 1997. The total hit on family income was some $9.8 billion per year. Now this is something of a scandal and I have calculated it in Adscam units. The advertising program in Quebec that fathered Adscam was something like $350 millions. As I recall they estimate $40 million was stolen. This is a record heist in Canada and done by the political party in power. However the $9.8 billion I discovered is 245 times as large. That is its the equivalent of 245 Adscams per year. The national figure on ill timed immigration would be upward of 1000 Adscams a year currently.

[Bruce_the_vii]

A legislated $13 an hour minimum wage for Alberta is reasonable.

People think a minimum wage increase will screw the economy, cost jobs and inflate. In fact the numbers are not that bad and there are compelling reasons to do it.

Here is the low wage data for four cites.


City………………………..Percent of workers over 20
…………………………….earning $12 an hour or less

Calgary....................................7%

Montreal...................................17%
Toronto……............................17%
Vancouver...............................15%


If you raise the bottom ten percent $2 an hour on average the inflation is about ½%. That’s what would be required in Alberta to come to a minimum wage of $13. Here’s the calculation using the national figures:

In 2009 there were 17,100 people working and raising 10% some $2 an hour would cost $6.8 billion. As the 2008 GDP was $1,398 billion that is 0.49%.

It’s a transfer, a tax, and it would cost jobs the amount of the inflation – 0.49% of jobs. (The jobs lost at the bottom would be more than that amount but the consumers lost go down the street, spend and replace some of the jobs.)

A higher minimum wage does the following:

*Cuts low pay jobs that are subsidized.
*The transfer is mostly within a family because many families have someone working at low wages.
*Is less exploitive. Canada has this exploitive wage problem.
*A higher minimum wage would slow economic growth but only at the bottom where there is a net subsidy
*In particular applies to women who’s first job is child rearing and do not have skills training.

The business cycle impacts on minimum wage and people there need some protection. Unions, at 30% of jobs in Canada, are protected presently as are skilled and professional workers, some 50% of the labour force. Skilled and professionals are protected by virtue of the fact there is a barrier to entry to any field of the training costs. This keeps the markets tight and the wages up. It’s a privileged position.

The real kicker is that if the labour market was allowed to work without immigration there would be prices rises at the bottom. Immigration always begets a little unemployment and this keeps the defacto minimum wage down. If you are going to immigrate you should protect the least well off workers with a minimum wage equal to what their market value would be.

Median wage in Calgary is $23 an hour and $13 an hour is only 56% of that.

[Proculation]

Don't you think we have a high enough unemployment rate ?
It's not everyone who are qualified to work @ 13$/h. These people need to work too.

[Bruce_the_vii]

In Calgary it'd cost about 3,500 jobs. This is about 7 months worth of immigration. They mess around with immigration.

People aren't qualified for $13 an hour? This is Canada, we are all about high wages. The $8 and $10 an hour are embarrasing.

[Proculation]

If everyone was qualified for a 13$/h job, there would not be 8$/h jobs.
Specially in times like we have at the moment. I have some friends looking for jobs and they are lowering their wage expectation because they do not find jobs at the wage they look for.

[Bruce_the_vii]

I don't think so. I don't think qualifications drives the market. For example I have ten years of training and experience in Computer Science but my market value is zero in todays market.

[Proculation]

Of course, it is not the qualifications that drive the employment market. It is like everything else: supply and demand. That's why a minimum wage is bad since you can have a job above it one day and 2 months after there's no job because the would-be wage is below it.

[Bruce_the_vii]

In Canada supply and demand is set by the immigration department. The economy would actually adjust without immigration, in particular wages at the bottom would go up and slow growth.

[Proculation]

Immigration is only one element of the demand of jobs. Like "real canadians", immigrants work in all the ranges of wages. Isolationism/protectionism is NEVER a good way to great wealth. We actually need MUCH MORE immigrants.

[Bruce_the_vii]

It's true that immigrants work in a range of jobs but Canada is characterized by a high education level, over investment in education (and most other aspects of the economy). This means there are people that are trained that can't get jobs in their area and are then displaced downward. These stories of professional immigrants working as cab drivers is only an example of this. The bottom is connect to all immigration in general by this downward displacement. To be an immigrant country you need reasonable jobs at the bottom. Canada hasn't had it since the late 1960s. It's hubris.