[Bruce_the_vii]

Yup, that's mass labour shortage not far off.

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2 ... 1-qmi.html

[kenmore]

There is certainly no shortage of bullshit.

[KorbenDeck]

If the Conservatives cut the number of immigrants entering Canada by 90% there would be a big shortage of labourers within a few years, since immigration is used to offset Canada's low birth rate

[Bruce_the_vii]

Only in Alberta. If you look at the detailed labour force survey data Alberta is ahead of Canada with regard to people working. In most of Canada the labour markets are very soft to extremely soft. We're ten years out from a labour shortage. That's technically. Intuitively people know this because there are lots of people around with marginal jobs. I live in Toronto and I saw some immigrant hawking socks, pairs of socks, at a traffic interesection corner the other day. That's not a job.

[Curtman]

Bruce_the_vii wrote:

I live in Toronto and I saw some immigrant hawking socks, pairs of socks, at a traffic interesection corner the other day. That's not a job.

That's what you're basing your opinion on? One "immigrant" in Toronto?

[EyeBrock]

Hey curtman, you might be able to give up drug trafficking and get a real job now eh?

[andyt]

Bruce_the_vii wrote:

Only in Alberta. If you look at the detailed labour force survey data Alberta is ahead of Canada with regard to people working. In most of Canada the labour markets are very soft to extremely soft. We're ten years out from a labour shortage. That's technically. Intuitively people know this because there are lots of people around with marginal jobs. I live in Toronto and I saw some immigrant hawking socks, pairs of socks, at a traffic interesection corner the other day. That's not a job.

Nope. Neither is working 3 part time jobs to try to make a living. But that's why Herpes wants the unemployment rate to only drop to 5.5 to 6.5 (Funny how he uses decimals here - why?). If the EI rate drops too low, workers will become uppity and demand a living wage for a days work. Can't have that, how will top execs continue to earn the average Canadian's annual wage in half a day, if they have to share corporate profits with the workers?

[Zipperfish]

Massive labour shrotage--well, here's an idea, Stephen: why don't you try working instead taking 2 months off on the taxpayer's coin!

[bootlegga]

Zipperfish wrote:

Massive labour shrotage--well, here's an idea, Stephen: why don't you try working instead taking 2 months off on the taxpayer's coin!

SNAP!

Seriously though, the stats don't lie, we will face a labour shortage sometime inthe near future. Do the math, the Baby boomers started being born in 1947 in Canada, so the the first of them is due to retire in 2012 (assuming they wait until 65). They currently represent almost 1/3 of Canadians (9 million or so). The generation that followed ( commonly called Gen X) is almost 50% smaller (5 million and change), so even if everyone if them can step into a boomer's job (and there's a lot of doubt about that), there is a shortage of 4 million jobs or so. I'd call that a massive shortage.

[andyt]

bootlegga wrote:

Zipperfish wrote:

Massive labour shrotage--well, here's an idea, Stephen: why don't you try working instead taking 2 months off on the taxpayer's coin!

SNAP!

Seriously though, the stats don't lie, we will face a labour shortage sometime inthe near future. Do the math, the Baby boomers started being born in 1947 in Canada, so the the first of them is due to retire in 2012 (assuming they wait until 65). They currently represent almost 1/3 of Canadians (9 million or so). The generation that followed ( commonly called Gen X) is almost 50% smaller (5 million and change), so even if everyone if them can step into a boomer's job (and there's a lot of doubt about that), there is a shortage of 4 million jobs or so. I'd call that a massive shortage.

It's only a shortage as long as we remain addicted to capitalism, which demands continual growth. Worldwide, population is expected to stabilized at around 9 billion by 2050(?). Then we'll have a worldwide calamity - OMG. Except even 9 billion people will exhaust the resources of the planet. I think humans have already vastly exceeded the capacity of the planet to support them. I think a die back is coming unless we figure out how to live sustainably. I doubt we will tho, and a sustainable economy certainly won't be a capitalist one.

[Bruce_the_vii]

bootlegga wrote:

Zipperfish wrote:

Massive labour shrotage--well, here's an idea, Stephen: why don't you try working instead taking 2 months off on the taxpayer's coin!

SNAP!

Seriously though, the stats don't lie, we will face a labour shortage sometime inthe near future. Do the math, the Baby boomers started being born in 1947 in Canada, so the the first of them is due to retire in 2012 (assuming they wait until 65). They currently represent almost 1/3 of Canadians (9 million or so). The generation that followed ( commonly called Gen X) is almost 50% smaller (5 million and change), so even if everyone if them can step into a boomer's job (and there's a lot of doubt about that), there is a shortage of 4 million jobs or so. I'd call that a massive shortage.

The stats do lie. Compared to Alberta's level of employment prerecession the real unemployment is 17.5%. Statistics Canada technicians ignor the fact that the labour force will go away up.

Also some 23% of jobs in Canada pay less than $12 an hour. Many of these jobs you could just eliminate and the economy would be fine. That's retail, fast food and restaurants telemarketing and some services couuld be downsized as they are over-invested. These people need a real job. So there's millions more workers.

Harper is something of a cold fish politically and saying the economy is good pretty much tells you all you need to know.

[Bruce_the_vii]

Curtman wrote:

Bruce_the_vii wrote:

I live in Toronto and I saw some immigrant hawking socks, pairs of socks, at a traffic interesection corner the other day. That's not a job.

That's what you're basing your opinion on? One "immigrant" in Toronto?

Anacdotal evidence can be quite telling. I mention the sock hawker because it's pretty bad but most Canadian cities have these kiosks in malls where hawkers try to make a living with a cartful of merchandize. It's Dickenesque. Kenmore's favorite is the Rose selling girls that come around in bars. It's not progress.

I do have data, I have about $1,000 of custom run data from Statistics Canada, for one.

[CommanderSock]

andyt wrote:

bootlegga wrote:

Zipperfish wrote:

Massive labour shrotage--well, here's an idea, Stephen: why don't you try working instead taking 2 months off on the taxpayer's coin!

SNAP!

Seriously though, the stats don't lie, we will face a labour shortage sometime inthe near future. Do the math, the Baby boomers started being born in 1947 in Canada, so the the first of them is due to retire in 2012 (assuming they wait until 65). They currently represent almost 1/3 of Canadians (9 million or so). The generation that followed ( commonly called Gen X) is almost 50% smaller (5 million and change), so even if everyone if them can step into a boomer's job (and there's a lot of doubt about that), there is a shortage of 4 million jobs or so. I'd call that a massive shortage.

It's only a shortage as long as we remain addicted to capitalism, which demands continual growth. Worldwide, population is expected to stabilized at around 9 billion by 2050(?). Then we'll have a worldwide calamity - OMG. Except even 9 billion people will exhaust the resources of the planet. I think humans have already vastly exceeded the capacity of the planet to support them. I think a die back is coming unless we figure out how to live sustainably. I doubt we will tho, and a sustainable economy certainly won't be a capitalist one.

Not even close.

Full industrialization is yet to swing into full gear. India, China, Africa, Latin America, when they reach the standards of Europe and North America and consume as much resource, then we can talk.

Capitalism doesn't rely on population growth, it lies in the efficient allocation of resources. The fact that 80% adults over 18 don't have bank accounts is reason enough to guarantee growth for the next 200 years in the banking industry - alone.

Most governments in the west are scrambling to open as many borders as possible because they realize without free-trade the very existence of the system is in peril.

Capitalism will continue to flourish, not because of population growth, but because there are people without bank accounts, cell phones, 2 cars, a mortgage, and so on.

Gotta love the system.

[N_Fiddledog]

Bruce_the_vii wrote:

bootlegga wrote:

Also some 23% of jobs in Canada pay less than $12 an hour. Many of these jobs you could just eliminate and the economy would be fine. That's retail, fast food and restaurants telemarketing and some services couuld be downsized as they are over-invested. These people need a real job. So there's millions more workers.

I hadn't considered that, but yeah.

So really the question is which can you do without? Telemarketers or the headaches of open immigration.

[bootlegga]

Bruce_the_vii wrote:

bootlegga wrote:

Zipperfish wrote:

Massive labour shrotage--well, here's an idea, Stephen: why don't you try working instead taking 2 months off on the taxpayer's coin!

SNAP!

Seriously though, the stats don't lie, we will face a labour shortage sometime inthe near future. Do the math, the Baby boomers started being born in 1947 in Canada, so the the first of them is due to retire in 2012 (assuming they wait until 65). They currently represent almost 1/3 of Canadians (9 million or so). The generation that followed ( commonly called Gen X) is almost 50% smaller (5 million and change), so even if everyone if them can step into a boomer's job (and there's a lot of doubt about that), there is a shortage of 4 million jobs or so. I'd call that a massive shortage.

The stats do lie. Compared to Alberta's level of employment prerecession the real unemployment is 17.5%. Statistics Canada technicians ignor the fact that the labour force will go away up.

Also some 23% of jobs in Canada pay less than $12 an hour. Many of these jobs you could just eliminate and the economy would be fine. That's retail, fast food and restaurants telemarketing and some services couuld be downsized as they are over-invested. These people need a real job. So there's millions more workers.

Harper is something of a cold fish politically and saying the economy is good pretty much tells you all you need to know.

How many people working in a fast food restaurant or retail are qualified to be a power engineer? Or a lawyer? Or accountants? Or any real, skilled job? Without years of training, NONE. Hell, how many of those service workers could be good sales managers or do any of the middle management jobs due to open up soon? Again, either none or so small a number as to be none.

So much for your extra millions of workers.

Jobs go wanting each and every day in this country because the people looking for jobs either don't have the skill or the experience (or both) to do those jobs. If you want to put millions of Tim Horton's workers (and all those millions of people working 'useless' jobs) into good jobs, then we'll need to spend billions retraining all of them. Meanwhile, who's selling donuts and coffee?