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CKA Uber
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 4:28 pm
 


I'm not saying to ignore, just don't go overboard with it.

I don't think that a preemptive strike is the way to go, prepare but let him show his hand first.
I might be crazy but I wonder if he wants to get attacked first.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 4:44 pm
 


raydan raydan:
I'm not saying to ignore, just don't go overboard with it.

I don't think that a preemptive strike is the way to go, prepare but let him show his hand first.
I might be crazy but I wonder if he wants to get attacked first.


I think the Norks have made the mistake of believing their own propaganda. They look at their troops marching around Pyongyang and just can't imagine how anyone could take them on.

While a very few of the leadership might know differently these things can take on a life of their own. I've seen it myself when people in dusty places have seen an American company of soldiers pull back from a town and they start celebrating as if they just defeated the entire US military.

Then they get treated to an airstrike. :lol:

Seriously, these people are insulated from the rest of the world in ways we can't even begin to imagine. There are generals in the DPRK who are less aware of world affairs than some of those SWA villagers I mentioned here. They may as well live on another planet they're so isolated.

The problem there is that when they get an order to fire missiles at the US, Japan, or etc. they really have no reason to believe that they won't win. That makes them dangerous enough to start a war.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 4:50 pm
 


It'll probably turn into the biggest bit of cynical face saving of all time, at least since the fall of Saddam, as it appears that someone inside NK is deliberately trying to collapse the regime without it appearing that way to the population. The NK generals goad L'il Kim into doing something stupid. He does it and pushes the US and SK to the brink of war. Then the Chinese step in, wipe out the NK Communist party but conveniently leave the NK general staff alive. The Kim family regime and it's ridiculous cult of personality comes to a bloody end, the generals take over with the backing of China, and a state of affairs with a massively liberalized (but still Communist) NK a la modern VietNam comes into existence. The Americans back off and NK - SK integration accelerates at a rapid pace with family reunifications, a mostly open border, and the capitalistic exploiting by both SK and China of an impovrished NK population that is desperate for jobs, even if they're the shittiest and lowest paying ones on the planet. A lot of people end up dying but at least the mess doesn't spread outside of NK.

Could happen. Kim doesn't have top-to-bottom control of the entire country, military, and Communist party as much as we believe he does. I've read elsewhere that Kim and his generals have major disagreements on a lot of things. And the generals might be tired of having to deal with an insane family when it would be easier for them to wipe out the party altogether and take over the whole show themselves.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 7:30 pm
 


Thanos Thanos:
It'll probably turn into the biggest bit of cynical face saving of all time, at least since the fall of Saddam, as it appears that someone inside NK is deliberately trying to collapse the regime without it appearing that way to the population. The NK generals goad L'il Kim into doing something stupid. He does it and pushes the US and SK to the brink of war. Then the Chinese step in, wipe out the NK Communist party but conveniently leave the NK general staff alive. The Kim family regime and it's ridiculous cult of personality comes to a bloody end, the generals take over with the backing of China, and a state of affairs with a massively liberalized (but still Communist) NK a la modern VietNam comes into existence. The Americans back off and NK - SK integration accelerates at a rapid pace with family reunifications, a mostly open border, and the capitalistic exploiting by both SK and China of an impovrished NK population that is desperate for jobs, even if they're the shittiest and lowest paying ones on the planet. A lot of people end up dying but at least the mess doesn't spread outside of NK.

Could happen. Kim doesn't have top-to-bottom control of the entire country, military, and Communist party as much as we believe he does. I've read elsewhere that Kim and his generals have major disagreements on a lot of things. And the generals might be tired of having to deal with an insane family when it would be easier for them to wipe out the party altogether and take over the whole show themselves.


Brilliant analysis. China wants the N Korea buffer, but probably can't stand the (how did Shep put it) the largest fmily-run criminal enterprise on the planet.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 7:24 pm
 


What's wrong with Missile Defense? lots of good jobs servicing and building all the sites the Yanks install at their cost? If the WW3 hits all the missiles gonna fly over us anyway--might as well stop them as soon as possible. So what if it's not 100% accurate or effective.... you would rather have entire attack of missiles hit us (Canada and U.S.) instead of say even 50%? Please explain how I am wrong...


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 7:39 pm
 


LoneCanadian LoneCanadian:
What's wrong with Missile Defense? lots of good jobs servicing and building all the sites the Yanks install at their cost?

Good point, assuming the Yanks hire Canadians and pay the whole load. Do you know for sure that that's how it'll shake down?

LoneCanadian LoneCanadian:
If the WW3 hits all the missiles gonna fly over us anyway--might as well stop them as soon as possible. So what if it's not 100% accurate or effective.... you would rather have entire attack of missiles hit us (Canada and U.S.) instead of say even 50%?

Your logic is sound but your conclusion presumes your numbers are correct. A 50% interception rate seems incredibly optimistic to me. If you and I each have a gun and I shoot at you and you attempt to shoot my bullets out of the air with your bullets, what percentage of my shots are you likely to intercept?

LoneCanadian LoneCanadian:
Please explain how I am wrong...

Since you asked, I think you're wrong because, economically speaking, I doubt that the Yanks would be so gracious as to employ a lot of Canadians in such a scheme. I think you're wrong, militarily speaking, because I doubt that missile defense could actually take out even one in-coming missile out of a hundred, let alone the 50% you're speculating.

Cheers, and welcome to CKA. Maybe introduce yourself to the forum. [B-o]


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 8:27 pm
 


Didn't we lose a whole bunch of potential tech jobs when Chretien stopped Canadian participation in the program?


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 10:04 pm
 


$1:
LoneCanadian wrote:
What's wrong with Missile Defense? lots of good jobs servicing and building all the sites the Yanks install at their cost?

Good point, assuming the Yanks hire Canadians and pay the whole load. Do you know for sure that that's how it'll shake down?

Well I'm not a super smart politician but getting an agreement for X percentage of Canadian content on the project could be something the U.S. would have to agree on before we give the green light.

$1:
LoneCanadian wrote:
If the WW3 hits all the missiles gonna fly over us anyway--might as well stop them as soon as possible. So what if it's not 100% accurate or effective.... you would rather have entire attack of missiles hit us (Canada and U.S.) instead of say even 50%?

Your logic is sound but your conclusion presumes your numbers are correct. A 50% interception rate seems incredibly optimistic to me. If you and I each have a gun and I shoot at you and you attempt to shoot my bullets out of the air with your bullets, what percentage of my shots are you likely to intercept


Gun slingin' old west style and leading edge weapon technologies are not really comparable. Military has GPS that's accurate to a few meters (officially), cameras in space that can see the brand of ass wipe I use, radar hooked up to super computers thinking at light speed and that's the declassified stuff from the 80's, who knows what they got in terms of capability right now. I think shooting a huge ICBM taking over half an hour to reach N.America is not such a technological problem.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 10:12 pm
 


I agree with LoneCanadian.

The tech has been around since the 1980's to shoot down MIRV ICBM's en route to their targets. I'm sure that the reliability of these sytstems has only got better since the Reagan era.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:21 am
 


raydan raydan:
Having nukes and being able to deploy them are 2 different things.


The USA tested our first nuke in July 1945 and deployed two of them the very next month.

:idea:


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:31 am
 


BartSimpson BartSimpson:
raydan raydan:
Having nukes and being able to deploy them are 2 different things.


The USA tested our first nuke in July 1945 and deployed two of them the very next month.

:idea:

I'm guessing that you guys will be able to intercept and bring down a North Korean plane carrying a nuclear warhead before it gets to LA. :lol:


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:42 am
 


raydan raydan:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
raydan raydan:
Having nukes and being able to deploy them are 2 different things.


The USA tested our first nuke in July 1945 and deployed two of them the very next month.

:idea:

I'm guessing that you guys will be able to intercept and bring down a North Korean plane carrying a nuclear warhead before it gets to LA. :lol:


Not that easy. NK planes are currently made to fit their dear leader, so the wingspan is only 4' 11".
The new rule is to make planes that are large enough to fit his ego so they will be twice the size of a 787 and much easier. We will have to wait and see.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:47 am
 


raydan raydan:
I'm guessing that you guys will be able to intercept and bring down a North Korean plane carrying a nuclear warhead before it gets to LA. :lol:


Obama's cut our readiness to where the USA often has no fighters in the air patrolling the CONUS and nothing on ready alert, either.

That said, the Norks stand a better chance of getting a cargo plane into the USA than they do an ICBM. Pathetic. :|


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:48 am
 


Thanos Thanos:
It'll probably turn into the biggest bit of cynical face saving of all time, at least since the fall of Saddam, as it appears that someone inside NK is deliberately trying to collapse the regime without it appearing that way to the population. The NK generals goad L'il Kim into doing something stupid. He does it and pushes the US and SK to the brink of war. Then the Chinese step in, wipe out the NK Communist party but conveniently leave the NK general staff alive. The Kim family regime and it's ridiculous cult of personality comes to a bloody end, the generals take over with the backing of China, and a state of affairs with a massively liberalized (but still Communist) NK a la modern VietNam comes into existence. The Americans back off and NK - SK integration accelerates at a rapid pace with family reunifications, a mostly open border, and the capitalistic exploiting by both SK and China of an impovrished NK population that is desperate for jobs, even if they're the shittiest and lowest paying ones on the planet. A lot of people end up dying but at least the mess doesn't spread outside of NK.

Could happen. Kim doesn't have top-to-bottom control of the entire country, military, and Communist party as much as we believe he does. I've read elsewhere that Kim and his generals have major disagreements on a lot of things. And the generals might be tired of having to deal with an insane family when it would be easier for them to wipe out the party altogether and take over the whole show themselves.


That's a real possibility, except for the increased integration - the last thing China wants is another high tech Western rival on its borders (Japan and Taiwan are plenty, thank you very much).

The possibility of a unified, re-invigorated Korea is not a pleasant thought for China - unless of course it was run by North Korea and allied with China and not the USA.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:51 am
 


BartSimpson BartSimpson:
raydan raydan:
I'm guessing that you guys will be able to intercept and bring down a North Korean plane carrying a nuclear warhead before it gets to LA. :lol:


Obama's cut our readiness to where the USA often has no fighters in the air patrolling the CONUS and nothing on ready alert, either.

That said, the Norks stand a better chance of getting a cargo plane into the USA than they do an ICBM. Pathetic. :|


According to Fox News, there are still 18 sites across the USA that have ready alert fighters (though two MAY close at some time in the future);

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/03 ... n-va-minn/


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