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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:41 pm
 


The question of entering EU is the important part of political life of Turkey during several last decades. Here, like in Europe, there are lots of supporters and opponents of membership in EU. After Recep Erdogan came to power (in 2003-2014 he was a prime minister and since 2014 he is a president), the process of negotiations became more intense at first. The newspaper “European Voice” in 2004 even named Erdogan “the European of the year” for reforms he carried out in the country. But in 2009 a local worsening of the conflict with Cyprus happened, Turkey closed its harbors for Cyprian ships. It served as a reason for freezing the negotiations with EU about the entering.
At the beginning of 2015 the president Erdogan claimed that Europe will not await Turkey begging for entering EU. Then the other official persons made similar statements. And minister for EU affairs stated that the format of negotiations, demanded by EU, is not convenient to Turkey anymore. At the same time he added that the level of democracy in Turkish Republic is higher than in European countries at present.
After attempt of military coup in Turkey in 2016 more than 150 journalists were arrested, 10 parliamentarians from the opposition were detained, more than 2000 of justice functionaries are kept in the cells of imprisonment before trial; in the aggregate almost 40000 people are accused of belonging to the coup.
The people of Turkey became divided at that time: some of them had to hide and keep silence, the others – to unite against the conspiracies from the West, The USA and other countries, which provided to be against Turkey for a long time. So the situation in the country, stable before, changed harshly. It became clear that any country, even the calmest and the most flourishing, can be destroyed, if even the small group of people will need it for achieving their aims.
And all the threads led and lead to one person: Turkish preacher Fethullah Gűlen, who lives quietly in the USA, the state Pennsylvania, for some years. One can just wonder at the power and the might of his sermons, if after them he can lead crowds of followers at such a great distance. Obviously, it is impossible without serious support and help. So, one may believe that somebody helped Gűlen to start the last year’s attempt of the coup. And it is easy to guess the sources of this help – the West with the USA at the head is watchful, they evidently need Turkey, but without Erdogan and his supporters. But instigators of the coup in July 2016 cannot even think that there were so many supporters of the present Turkish president. It is evident that Gűlen played the oracle telling the Americans that Erdogan is not liked in the country, they need only to start and the army will rebel and usual people immediately will do the same after it. In general, it was usual hopes of ringleaders of any coups and dethronements.
It can be stated that the coup was only the top; there were lots of preparatory measures and different provocations before. Only during the last year there were ten acts of terrorism in Gaziantep, Istanbul, Ankara and other places. And barbarous murder of the Russian diplomat in Ankara on December, 19 – the ambassador Andrey Karlov, who performed at the unveiling of the photo-exhibition “Russia through the eyes of the Turks”. It began since November 2015, when the Russian plane was shot down – the pilot Oleg Peshkov was killed. To do all these things is necessary to prepare a lot, to have much money and support at high levels. And later, in July of the previous year, they attempted the coup. They used state computer systems, occupied mass media, brought out the military equipment, attacked the parliament and the president’s residence, and shot the people at the same time. The concrete group of people, just desiring to change Erdogan for a person loyal to them, was (and is) responsible for it. But it is clear now that all people, who were responsible for the coup in Turkey, went wrong. Instead of getting rid of Erdogan, they lost all of their agents and followers in the state system of Turkey.
But the Turks have now an important circumstance: they were able to unite around a leader. They believed Erdogan. And now they will give a hostile reception to all attempts of anybody to instigate them for staging a coup. Moreover, they saw that their country is not alone. Around, nearby, there are the others, who also resist the Westerners’ attempts to propagate the foreign morals, regulations and rules of play. And Turkey turned. It turned towards Russia, China and other neighbors. Towards common Eurasianism, because it is closer and more understandable than North Atlantic Alliance and European Union with their not traditional views and hazy rules of life and collaboration. And it seems to be the biggest sorrow for Americans and strategists from NATO and EU; evidently, such a turning-point was not expected in their headquarters.
Except for the American factor there is also the European one. In the opinion of German political scientist, the head of the German-Russian Forum programs, Alexander Rahr, the scandals with Turkey started due to Germany. “German government began to close the doors for Turkish politicians. In Germany they are be guided by the entirety policy. Germans do not want the Turkish politicians speak on their territory and advertise the Erdogan’s authoritarian constitution”, – the expert claimed during the interview with the newspaper “Vzglyad”.
However, “Europe runs huge risks”, the expert emphasized. He reminded that Germany and the other Europe explain Turkey all the time that it should observe democracy, the right to free speech and so on, but “now it serves as not the best example” and in that way can be criticized for the “double standards policy”, the political scientist pointed. He mentioned that the battles of Europe and Turkey” started in the previous year when the parliaments of German and other countries admitted the genocide of Armenians. “All these crumbs lead to Erdogan’s turning away from the agreement about the closing the borders for refugees from Syria and North Africa to Europe, and it will be the cause for the new rush of the migratory flows”, - the expert warned.
The weakening of European influence on Turkey has already been working for the Russian interests, because Russia is interested in the lack of a united front against it. Against a background of the relations that have become worse utterly, Ankara demonstrates the “improvement” of the relations with Moscow. The example to it is the recent Erdogan’s arrival to the Russian capital and his talks with Vladimir Putin.
Russia and Turkey did not simply came back to the pre-crisis level of the relations, but also were able to make new aims about their development, announced the ambassador of Turkey in Russia Hűseyn Dirioz, speaking at the press conference in INA “Russia today”. The Istanbul newspaper”Tűrkiye”, commenting the Erdogan’s visit to Moscow, emphasized: it is an important signal to Europe, which has benefits from problems in relations between Turkey and Russia. In the opinion of the edition columnists, “such situation is one of the proofs that Europe does not know lately, how to act, and thinks confusedly”. Turkish political scientist Talat Cetin in the comments for the Azerbaijan agency “Trend” declared that the rapprochement between Moscow and Ankara (never joined the anti-Russian sanctions) is not advantageous for EU, and it explained the nervousness of the authorities of several EU countries.
There is a statement “You cannot choose your homeland”, but it can be added that we do not choose the neighbors also. In virtue of its geographical position Russia and Turkey are doomed both to rivalry and cooperation. Turkey, as Russia, is the country with the imperial past and, of course, it has an effect on international policy of our stated. Especially on the policy that is carried toward the nearest neighbors. And in this aspect both Russian and Turkish leaders need to demonstrate the ability to agree and to show flexibility; possibly to maneuver, considering their own interests at the same time.
Taking into account not simple relations between Turkey and western allies it can serve as a good platform for the development of Russian-Turkish bilateral communications and even multilateral formats, where the other regional countries will take part. For example, the interaction between Turkey and SCO, this also will promote the development of political and economic collaboration between our states.
The trend for the improvement of the relations, which was taken by the sides after the meeting of Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Saint-Petersburg at the beginning of August, is developing headily enough. Most likely the image of Turkey as an important Russia’s supporter in the region and abroad generally will be formed up further.
In Turkey there will be the similar situation if nothing happen inside Russian and Turkish political elites. However, there is no doubt that the question of bilateral relations will be on the individual control of heads of both states.
In that way the relations between Russia and Turkey will be able to develop headily on conditions that the home-base situation in Turkey will be more or less quiet.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:07 am
 


The problem with Turkey's accusations against Gulen is there is zero evidence linking Gulen to any sort of acts of terrorism, never mind the minor coup attempt by some junior officers. But the US operates under the rule of law (unlike Turkey) and can't simply extradite a man who is a permanent resident without evidence. That's particularly so when the nation wanting him is an autocratic dictatorship where the courts are merely extensions of the dictator's will.

Turkey is in the process of becoming just another corrupt, broken down, backward Islamic dictatorship, and has no chance whatsoever of being accepted in the EU. It will probably be expelled from NATO, in fact. As for Russian and Turkish relations, those should progress well since Gulen and Putin are extremely similar men in their ruthless pursuit of power, their corruption, and their determination to wield absolute power. In fact, Erdogan has clearly been playing directly from Putin's playbook on how to take over an ostensibly democratic nation and then eliminate all free press and all opposition. Putin did it more subtly, of course, but Erdogan clearly lacks his patience.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:39 am
 


Pay attention to what's happening between the US & Turkey right now. Diplomatic relations are at an all-time low and it is starting to look like the US is going to pull out of Incirlik very, very soon.

Not long after that I expect the US to want to oust Turkey from NATO.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:24 am
 


BartSimpson wrote:
Pay attention to what's happening between the US & Turkey right now. Diplomatic relations are at an all-time low and it is starting to look like the US is going to pull out of Incirlik very, very soon.

Not long after that I expect the US to want to oust Turkey from NATO.


The US should have encouraged and supported a coup against Erdogan years ago, but nice-guy Obama would never go for that.


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