[Bruce_the_vii]

The Conservatives have attached legislation to their budget to sell AECL, the CANDU technology. They say it has been subsidized to the tune of $30 billion and needs to go.

I asked AECL public relations about CANDU features. The pamphlets they sent me describe the new ARC 1000 as being able to have "sustainable fuel cycle" with thorium. That is with thorium / plutonium it's a breeder reactor. Reactors being planned today will still be working in 2050 at which time not only will oil be rare but uranium will be pressured as well.

In addition the AECL literature describes the heavy water CANDU as "non core melt down". This is as the heavy water moderates the nuclear reaction and if there was a disaster the loss of the heavy water would end the fission chain reaction. Going forward in time there will be 1000's of reactors and they will have to be located in populated areas so you don't want a dangerous core-melt-down reactor.

AECL may have it's day; selling it is short sighted.

[Proculation]

30 billions on how many years ?

[Bruce_the_vii]

The $30 billion was a recent headline. It would include facts like AECL had subsidized, low cost loans from the government for it's exported reactors. They lost money. So fifty years. It's a lot but the future energy market is going to require trillions of dollars of investment.

The problem is Harper is playing the government subsidy card just at the time future world energy problems have come on the public's radar. If you said Harper isn't personally aquainted with the statistics on this issue I would say Amen.

[Proculation]

if they need 30 billions of govt. investment, I say privatize it. It's not the govt. role to build power plants. Plus, maybe we can lower the debt with the selling.

[Bruce_the_vii]

The coming energy crises will be in the trillions of dollars of investment. Governments will get involved. It will go crazy in some cases. The CANDU billions at least came up with a good technology. The ball is in the rough and you have to play it from there. The CANDU may need further support but it makes sense.

A non core meltdown, breeder reactor in the face of a trillion dollar market and world energy emergency. Harper can see the free market aspect to it only. Be reminded that Harper and Flaherty missed the fact that the Canadian economy slipped into recession in the fall of 2008, which the editor at the Toronto Sun knew full well, and that something like a coming oil shortage may be only data to him.

[Proculation]

if we sell it, we won't loose the technologies. The CANDU will still be there. We just won't loose money with it for decades.

[Bruce_the_vii]

That's true. Selling it may make little difference. However it probably still needs subsidies as the reactor market is not going to heat up for 10 years. Just right now they won't get much money for it either. I do think it is important to our energy future. (The $30 billion was past expenditures - checking the tense of your post.)

[Khar]

Quote:

Be reminded that Harper and Flaherty missed the fact that the Canadian economy slipped into recession in the fall of 2008, which the editor at the Toronto Sun knew full well

Can you link me?

Sorry if it is a bother, but I find that an editor of a newspaper would be able to figure out something faster than not only two political figures within experience in that area, but several hundred economic advisors within Canada, sounds somewhat off.

As for the rest, I don't think privatization will do great, wonderful, grand things for the commercial aspects of AECL, but that's chiefly because I think the Liberals overstate the value of our technology, something they drove down the value of when they caused problems for us over with India in two different Liberal governments which lead to the arrival of a strong AREVA presence in India which outweighed Candu. Instead of providing us a foothold to being expansion of our nuclear technology when it was beginning to flower in the early years of nuclear expansion, we instead ending up biting ourselves and giving competing countries a leading edge. I know Harper went there to renew talks but India has been developing competing reactors for some time now, including a cleaner, more efficient Thorium reactor which would compete heavily with our own.

Candu is not a super powerful movement -- it has problems even getting bids in Ontario (although this is largely due to the Liberal provincial government taking forever to move forward with nuclear plans), and even then has a history of forcing the federal government to pay a decent amount in overhead costs beyond what it should. It is a leader in producing nuclear isotypes, but the medical community is all for any stance which would increase the supply and feel if this is the way then that is what should happen, according to Dr. Christopher O’Brien of the Ontario Association of Nuclear Medicine.

Recommendations from the banks and other groups have, for at least 6-10 months, been recommending that the Canadian government reduce the amount of interest it has in AECL, from what I remember reading.

Push comes shove, even though nuclear is cleaning, as you said, Bill, it’s a heavy water reactor design us Canucks have – light water tends to be preferred for most new projects as it is even cleaner. Our reactors produce a large amount of tritium and plutonium as hazardous side products, and I’m sure there will also be some political pressure on us if it does become a powerful forefront in Nuclear technology becomes of concerns raised between heavy water reactors and nuclear proliferation.

In the end, I’m not entirely comfortable losing another Canadian aspect, but I’m not too sure on it’s prospects even under our control while we continue to dump a vast amount of money into it. Will Chalk River and other installations do better under private management? Would private investment spur development of CANDU reactors to another level? I sure don’t know, I find the whole situation a bit confusing, with lots of gray areas. I do think that the Liberals need to be more proactive in getting their provincial level party on board in Ontario, but I definitely think there has been some overstatements from both the government and the opposition on this one.

[bootlegga]

Proculation wrote:

if we sell it, we won't loose the technologies. The CANDU will still be there. We just won't loose money with it for decades.

No, but odds are it would be sold to a foreign company and all those profits exported overseas.

$30 billion over 50 years, that's less than $2 billion a year (which sounds like a lot but sadly isn't when it comes to governments), and I'd bet a lot of that was in the first couple of decades for R&D. I'd be curious to know how many jobs they generated over that time, how much tax was paid to various governments, etc. I'd be willing to bet that AECL has proven to be a good investment of government money.

I can't imagine AECL is costing that much these days. Now if AECL was looking for $30 billion, then I might be interested in privatizing (as long as a Canadian company could be found to buy it), but I don't think that's the problem.

[Bruce_the_vii]

The AECL pamphlet says their reactors have generated $100 billion in electricity, and they will be producing electricity for some time yet.

I don't really know what privatization would be like, however the advantages of non core melt down, will breed fuel and is a tested technology are huge.

[Bruce_the_vii]

The province of NewBrunswick is looking to the French nuclear giant to study the possibility of a new reactor for them. It's not looking good for AECL, Ontario has put off purchase of a reactor. The heavy water design is safer, Canadian and will eventually sell on the basis of being a near breeder.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets ... t=b3884341