The West ascendant: Canada's new political power
Ted Rhodes/Postmedia News
Alberta, B.C. and the other western provinces are playing a bigger and bigger role in the Canadian economy.
.CommentsTwitterLinkedInDiggBuzzEmail.Kenyon Wallace, National Post · Thursday, Dec. 16, 2010
Canada’s rising west, now accounting for over a third of Canada’s national economic output and sitting at No. 26 on the list of the world’s largest exporters — ahead of even India and Thailand — is sparking, albeit slowly, a political sea change away from the historical Ontario-Quebec power base, experts say.
With a combined population now of more than 10 million and climbing, and an economy that now ranks 18th in the world, political scientists say Canada’s westernmost provinces — Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia — are carrying more weight in debates over national issues, such as pension reform, health and social transfers, and foreign investment, and will continue to do so as their economies grow.
The prognosis comes on the heels of the release of a new study Thursday by the Canada West Foundation that pegs Western Canada as the country’s fastest-growing region — a region that accounts for over a third of Canada’s economy, and which has one of the highest rates of college and university education in the world.
“In terms of federal-provincial relations I think you’re going to see a shift to western Canada but I think that’s going to take a while to catch up in the House of Commons itself,” said David McGrane, a political science professor at the University of Saskatchewan. “You have places like Saskatchewan and Alberta having increasing amounts of weight when it comes to national questions, and I think you’re going to see this when you talk about re-negotiating the health and social accords.”
Prof. McGrane points to last month’s decision by Industry Minister Tony Clement to deny a $40-billion US takeover bid by BHP Billiton to buy PotashCorp. as an indication of a growing provincial influence in federal circles. Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall is credited by many for pressuring the federal government not to go through with the deal.
“I didn’t know anybody could change Stephen Harper’s mind, but apparently Brad Wall can,” he said.
With Stephen Harper now one of the longest-serving Western prime ministers in decades, combined with a federal cabinet of which Western MPs make up more than 30%, the region’s interests are becoming harder to ignore.
Researchers at the Canada West Foundation, a Calgary-based think tank that dubs itself “the voice for issues of vital concern to Western Canadians,” note that while the West’s growth in both economic and political power has not gone unnoticed, the region’s dependency on natural resources could mean significant declines in growth should global commodity prices fall.
“How long can we rely on our natural resource base and how do we make sure we continue to diversity and become a place that has other things going for it economically?” said Robert Roach, a Canada West Foundation senior researcher and principal author of State of the West 2010: Western Canadian Demographic and Economic Trends. The report uses data collected by Statistics Canada, Industry Canada, the OECD and a number of other sources to produce a snapshot of western Canadian economic and population trends.
“Saskatchewan is enjoying an economic renaissance right now and has finally reversed an outflow of population. It’s urbanizing and doing well right now because of things like potash, uranium and oil, but it faces the question Alberta has faced for a long time — can it sustain long-term future on that?” he said.
The challenges don’t end there. The report notes that Western Canada is home to 60% of the country’s Aboriginal population — a population that continues to be faced with low employment, low income and low rates of education.
“While problems facing the Aboriginal population are not new, this report highlights once again that public policy is not getting the traction it needs to on that issue,” Mr. Roach said.
The report also raises the possibility for further economic diversification in light of the fact that both B.C. and Manitoba attracted more immigrants in 2008 than their share of the national population, while two-thirds of immigrants to Western Canada fall under the “economic” class, meaning they are selected for their potential to contribute to the economy. B.C. now has the largest visible minority population in the country, and the overall western visible minority population is expected to grow faster than the rest of population.
If Western Canada was a country, its annual exports of $180-billion would place it 26th on a list of the world’s largest trading regions, ahead of such countries as India, Thailand, Norway and Indonesia, according to the report.
“We don’t tend to toot our own horn. We tend to see ourselves as small and not that important,” Mr. Roach said. “Yes, we’re nowhere near as big as China, Germany and Japan, but we’re not exactly this tiny little backwater. I bet if you asked Western Canadians if India trades more than Canada, they’d say for sure. And yet that’s not the case.”
University of Calgary economist Ronald Kneebone says the recent economic downturn shone a light on the importance of the West.
“I think there probably is a recognition now that Alberta and Saskatchewan, and to a lesser extent, B.C., have really been driving the Canadian economy,” he said. “I would be betting that a large part of the reason we came through this recession in not so bad shape is because of the strength of those three provinces. We sell resources the rest of the world wants and has continued to want even through this recession. That’s kept the whole boat afloat.”
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http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada ... z18PYci1TARegionalism is ganing in strength and changing it's political colours.