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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:06 pm
 


Thanos wrote:
Anyone or any group saying things like "shut down Canada's fossil fuel sector altogether" should be considered a radical. The economic and personal devastation such a policy will cause will be unmatched by anything except for maybe the Great Depression.


Is that any worse than the other side saying "drill baby drill"?

I don't support either of those options. Moderation is always the best policy, but there are plenty of "radical" oil schills and their related think tanks and "charities" denying climate change, and pushing to develop the oil sands as fast as possible.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:10 pm
 


Thanos wrote:
Anyone or any group saying things like "shut down Canada's fossil fuel sector altogether" should be considered a radical. The economic and personal devastation such a policy will cause will be unmatched by anything except for maybe the Great Depression.


Then it should be good news that they don't do that.

https://www.ecojustice.ca/press-releases/


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:10 pm
 


Moderation went out the window when Denis Coderre did his victory lap after he got Energy East killed. And when the Saint Greta cultists came out in droves. And when four out of five federal political parties all said they'd do what they could, either sooner or later, to put a permanent end to O&G development, production, shipping, and export. There is only win or lose in this issue now. And, going by the way things have always gone in this country, Albertans will almost assuredly be the ones to lose the fight in the worst way.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:16 pm
 


So, perhaps it's time to diversify our economy, instead of relying on the 5th place industry that isn't top 10 in terms of employment.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:45 pm
 


We are diversified. Not as much as we'd like but it's not a one or two-horse province. I never said it was either. The problem is when the core industry that provided such a huge amount of revenue, and so many direct and indirect jobs, gets hammered this badly then the others will suffer too automatically. Basic economics, and that's all. Real estate was the first to take it on the chin, when too many homes ended up being listed by freshly-unemployed people who couldn't afford the mortgages. Then restaurants, entertainment, luxury buying, etc. as spare cash dried up. And on and on and on. O&G is far too critical a component, and is always going to be the first (and most important) of the dominos to fall.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:03 pm
 


And that is the reason we've been on an economic roller coaster since Leduc #1.

If we were allowed to criticize the government ;) , and make suggestions as to other industries to develop; like the Film Industry or High Tech; then perhaps O&G wouldn't kill our economy at regular intervals.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:42 pm
 


If that's what you call diversification then we're looking at AB becoming like the Maritimes or the Rust Belt. Those kind of industries will provide neither the number of jobs or wages that O&G does, which means the overall economic health of the entire province will crash.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:15 pm
 


DrCaleb wrote:
Freakinoldguy wrote:
DrCaleb wrote:


Fucking disgusting. First they work to destroy the industry and then they try and prevent the truth about foreign interference from being exposed under the old standby. It's a witch hunt.


They didn't destroy anything. The Saudis did, along with fracking in the US.

And you are right, it's a witch hunt to take away a group's right to freedom of speech to criticize a government or an industry if they feel it needs some.

And as I quoted earlier in the article, the industry that receives the most foreign funding in Alberta are churches. Where is the inquiry into that?


There should be but to say these people didn't destroy anything is a stretch. They work in aid of people who quietly paid groups, people and advertising agencies to fight pipelines both east and west.

So'd I'd say there were instrumental in destroying the economy because if you can keep someone from legally selling their product eventually they'll go under which is what we're seeing happening to Alberta.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:39 pm
 


Thanos wrote:
If that's what you call diversification then we're looking at AB becoming like the Maritimes or the Rust Belt. Those kind of industries will provide neither the number of jobs or wages that O&G does, which means the overall economic health of the entire province will crash.


The film industry and high tech aren't going to produce the number of jobs that O&G does? You might want to check out how many jobs (and the wages people in them earn) the US film industry or Silicon Valley have created. The only difference between the tech sector and O&G is that you have to have an education to work in the tech sector (but not always in the film industry).

Our model for diversification should be California, which relies on agriculture, tourism, the tech sector, film production and manufacturing.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:47 pm
 


And the basis of the belief that you can take a bunch of middle-aged riggers, welders, inspectors, and other O&G types and turn them into cameramen, farmers, or tour-bus guides is based in what reality? Not being snotty with you but we're looking at people, me included, where their age is the main factor against them. This "retraining" mantra is as ridiculous out here as it was in the Maritimes in the early 1990's when the fisheries and coal mines collapsed and the smart people talking on the CBC said things like "oh, just train them on computers and let them go their merry way". At a certain age things like that just aren't possible for a lot of people anymore, not when they've being doing set tasks for most of their working lives, or never had the background education for that kind of thing to begin with. It's not a pride thing, or looking down on the alternatives, it's just a reality that they're too old to train for things that will let them live a safe and stable life.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:55 pm
 


Thanos wrote:
And the basis of the belief that you can take a bunch of middle-aged riggers, welders, inspectors, and other O&G types and turn them into cameramen, farmers, or tour-bus guides is based in what reality? Not being snotty with you but we're looking at people, me included, where their age is the main factor against them. This "retraining" mantra is as ridiculous out here as it was in the Maritimes in the early 1990's when the fisheries and coal mines collapsed and the smart people talking on the CBC said things like "oh, just train them on computers and let them go their merry way". At a certain age things like that just aren't possible for a lot of people anymore, not when they've being doing set tasks for most of their working lives, or never had the background education for that kind of thing to begin with. It's not a pride thing, or looking down on the alternatives, it's just a reality that they're too old to train for things that will let them live a safe and stable life.


Fair enough, but using that same argument, why should we send future generations down the same path only to face the same uncertain future today's middle-aged underskilled workers face?

There will come a time in the future (within 30-60 years is my guesstimate) when oil demand will fall and bitumen will simply be too expensive to compete in a collapsing market. At that point in time, everyone still in the industry will get laid off, not just 100,000 workers.

We'd be better off slowly transitioning into other industries while the oil industry slowly fades away, instead of doubling down on the oil industry for another decade or two. If we do that, we'll wind up looking like post-cod Newfoundland or the US Rust Belt.

The time to begin transitioning away from oil is now, not in 20 years.

I'm not a headhunter, so I can't tell you which type of worker can be re-trained for what new position, but we need to start trying to do it now. Maybe that means getting new young workers into skilled trades and fields, instead of telling them they can drive a hotshot truck right out of high school and earn $80K/year. Maybe it means helping older workers retire or start their own businesses.

Even if oil demand doesn't begin to decline in the next decade, automation is going to start replacing workers (like autonomous vehicles replacing drivers) and jobs are going to keep disappearing. Corporations have to look out for the shareholders, not the workers, so expect more moves to cut costs to increase profits.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:53 am
 


Freakinoldguy wrote:
There should be but to say these people didn't destroy anything is a stretch. They work in aid of people who quietly paid groups, people and advertising agencies to fight pipelines both east and west.

So'd I'd say there were instrumental in destroying the economy because if you can keep someone from legally selling their product eventually they'll go under which is what we're seeing happening to Alberta.


I know your cognitive bias leads you to think that, but we all know the actual causes. The courts, and Indigenous peoples.

Opposition groups are very important in a democratic society in order to keep things balanced. Which is why the pro Oil and Gas lobby goes after them so hard. If there were no opposition, then they could continue to write the environmental laws that favour business, and work against the environment and the citizens.

Environmental lobbies had very little to do with delays in O&G projects, or with eh O&G economy in general.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:05 am
 


Thanos wrote:
And the basis of the belief that you can take a bunch of middle-aged riggers, welders, inspectors, and other O&G types and turn them into cameramen, farmers, or tour-bus guides is based in what reality?


No one suggested that. In fact, I have suggested that all those types transit to other similar industries like geothermal energy, which is in demand.

Thanos wrote:
Not being snotty with you


Yes you are! Own it! :twisted: Put on that Dennis Leary tune in your recent list on Youtube if you like. ;)

Thanos wrote:
but we're looking at people, me included, where their age is the main factor against them. This "retraining" mantra is as ridiculous out here as it was in the Maritimes in the early 1990's when the fisheries and coal mines collapsed and the smart people talking on the CBC said things like "oh, just train them on computers and let them go their merry way". At a certain age things like that just aren't possible for a lot of people anymore, not when they've being doing set tasks for most of their working lives, or never had the background education for that kind of thing to begin with. It's not a pride thing, or looking down on the alternatives, it's just a reality that they're too old to train for things that will let them live a safe and stable life.


You and I aren't that far apart in age, and I learn new skills all the time. The only difference isn't ability, it's motivation. You might not be able to do things physically, but it has been proven time and again that the brain is very plastic and is able to adapt - barring any actual disease. Some people, myself included, get comfortable in our ways. We like our lives, and changing them isn't what we want to do. But we can do it, if we have to or want to bad enough.

In fact, I read an article the other day where you can actually lose half your brain, and you will adapt!

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... orks-66762


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:57 am
 


DrCaleb wrote:
In fact, I read an article the other day where you can actually lose half your brain, and you will adapt!



How would you adapt to losing the second half, and having..... nothing at all ?


:mrgreen: :mrgreen:


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:59 am
 


Martin15 wrote:
DrCaleb wrote:
In fact, I read an article the other day where you can actually lose half your brain, and you will adapt!



How would you adapt to losing the second half, and having..... nothing at all ?


:mrgreen: :mrgreen:


I would then move to Slovakia, where I didn't need it. [B-o] Or become a politician.


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