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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:26 am
 


Title: Michael on pace to be 1st Category 4 hurricane to hit Florida Panhandle
Category: Weather
Posted By: DrCaleb
Date: 2018-10-10 08:19:29
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:26 am
 


Forcasters say "2018 has been a below average Hurricane season". Hurricane season says "Hold my beer . . ."


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:41 am
 


8O


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:55 am
 


DrCaleb wrote:
Forcasters say "2018 has been a below average Hurricane season". Hurricane season says "Hold my beer . . ."


It's still a below-average hurricane season.

http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:29 am
 


That's how averages work. Some years are below, some above.

But the hurricanes and typhoons this year have been rather exceptional. :idea:


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:34 am
 


DrCaleb wrote:
That's how averages work. Some years are below, some above.

But the hurricanes and typhoons this year have been rather exceptional. :idea:


How so?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:43 am
 


BartSimpson wrote:
DrCaleb wrote:
That's how averages work. Some years are below, some above.

But the hurricanes and typhoons this year have been rather exceptional. :idea:


How so?


They have been gaining strength at unprecedented levels, and starting to show a trend of stalling just offshore and dumping rain on land at a never before seen rate. This one went from 'topical storm' to 'Category 4' in 2 days. Air pressure dropped to 930millibars, which is nearly unprecedented as storm lows go.

So much rain was dumped in the Carolinas and Huston that GPS stations were been able to record the land sinking under the weight.

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/9/eaau2477


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:02 am
 


Update: Michael is now at 923 Millibars, making it top 10 in intensity for hurricanes that have made landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1528.shtml

It is expected to further intensify, making it top 5 and surpassing Andrew, one of the most destructive hurricanes.

Edit: Crap! 919 Millibars, and falling!


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:12 am
 


DrCaleb wrote:
(Hurricanes) have been gaining strength at unprecedented levels, and starting to show a trend of stalling just offshore and dumping rain on land at a never before seen rate.


Hurricanes are not gaining strength any differently than have most hurricanes in the past. The storms that follow the Gulf Stream are also carrying a typical water load.

What is different compared to twenty years ago is the amount of development in the path of these storms. Stupid people have built too many things in aesthetically attractive low-lying areas near to tree-lined rivers and creeks.

That GPS could be measuring something occurring during storms is not new, it's just new that we're measuring it and getting freaked out over new data.

I've seen the same psychological phenomenon at work when we've started monitoring seismic shifting in the LA basin. People freaked out over data that this fault or another fault was moving at 10mm per year and causing cracks in roadways.

As if this were a NEW phenomenon.

Yet a pretty simple check with the street maintenance departments for affected cities revealed decades and decades of tagged spots that receive schedule repairs due to shifting that's been observed since the 1920's.

Meaning it's best not to jump to conclusions when you see new data. And this particular feature of measuring GPS stations is new to ArcMap 10.6 this year.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:39 am
 


BartSimpson wrote:
DrCaleb wrote:
(Hurricanes) have been gaining strength at unprecedented levels, and starting to show a trend of stalling just offshore and dumping rain on land at a never before seen rate.


Hurricanes are not gaining strength any differently than have most hurricanes in the past. The storms that follow the Gulf Stream are also carrying a typical water load.


They are not quite typical. What has been observed with a few of the more recent storms is that instead of heading inland and dissipating, they are hugging the coast, and continuing to soak up more moisture and bring it inland. That's what made Harvey and Florence so unique. A lack of a northern high pressure system to pull the storm inland was thought to contribute.

BartSimpson wrote:
What is different compared to twenty years ago is the amount of development in the path of these storms. Stupid people have built too many things in aesthetically attractive low-lying areas near to tree-lined rivers and creeks.


Very true.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:27 am
 


True. But considering the sheer size of these storms, the only place really where you’d be safe building is in Kansas.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:35 am
 


DrCaleb wrote:
Update: Michael is now at 923 Millibars, making it top 10 in intensity for hurricanes that have made landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1528.shtml

It is expected to further intensify, making it top 5 and surpassing Andrew, one of the most destructive hurricanes.

Edit: Crap! 919 Millibars, and falling!

Got an "explain it like I'm 5" for what the millibars measurement means? Or a link that has it?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:46 am
 


Tricks wrote:
DrCaleb wrote:
Update: Michael is now at 923 Millibars, making it top 10 in intensity for hurricanes that have made landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1528.shtml

It is expected to further intensify, making it top 5 and surpassing Andrew, one of the most destructive hurricanes.

Edit: Crap! 919 Millibars, and falling!

Got an "explain it like I'm 5" for what the millibars measurement means? Or a link that has it?



One Bar (14.7psi) is the average air pressure at ground level, a millibar is one thousandth of a bar.

919 millibars signifies a very low atmospheric pressure. Same as rapidly stirring water in a bowl, the water level drops in the center due to lower pressure. Sort of. :wink:


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:47 am
 


xerxes wrote:
True. But considering the sheer size of these storms, the only place really where you’d be safe building is in Kansas.

This one is predicted to hit Nova Scotia and Newfoundland... although not as a hurricane.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:48 am
 


Tricks wrote:
DrCaleb wrote:
Update: Michael is now at 923 Millibars, making it top 10 in intensity for hurricanes that have made landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1528.shtml

It is expected to further intensify, making it top 5 and surpassing Andrew, one of the most destructive hurricanes.

Edit: Crap! 919 Millibars, and falling!

Got an "explain it like I'm 5" for what the millibars measurement means? Or a link that has it?


It's a measurement of air pressure. KiloPascals is another scale. MM of Mercury . . .Atmospheres . . .

Normal air pressure at sea level is 1013 Millibars. A thunder storm can mean +20 Millibars, hurricane -30.

This one is like 100 millibars. 8O


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