BartSimpson wrote:
bootlegga wrote:
BartSimpson wrote:
It ain't a matter of running out, it's a matter of supply and demand. If the world DEMAND is 50 million barrels a day, and we can only produce 45 million, where do you think the price goes? UP...
Yes, there is still plenty of oil, but unfortunately, countries that once exported oil (like China) have now become big importers themselves. Other major deposits (like the North Sea) are prodcuing less and less. Companies now tout 'big' oil finds like 10 billion barrels off the ocast of Brazil, when in the heyday of discoveries, that wouldn't rate a mention on the last page of the newspaper.
I highly recommend "Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller" by Jeff Rubin. It'll change the way you look at carbon taxes, oil prices and the cost of globalization.
Note the correction.
Read the article. With huge supplies of oil deep in the earth all that matters is the technology to extract it. When shallow supplies dry up, as they did in Pennsylvania, the technology to extract oil from deeper sources (as in Texas and offshore) will be developed. Right now there's no compelling reason to drill 10km down when there's plenty of oil 1km down.
I agree there is plenty of oil, but what will it cost to get oil from 10 km down? There’s a reason oil companies drill to a km and stop. It costs a shitload to go deeper.
The problem isn’t oil supply, it’s CHEAP oil supply. We’ve run through most of the cheap oil in the world and if we want what’s left, it’s going to leave a mark on our economies. With all the cheap stuff running out, producers are having to drill in marginal fields or deal with extreme environments (like the oil sands) to find oil to keep our economies running. Want oil from the Arctic? We can do it, but given the lack of transportation infrastructure up there, it ain’t going to be cheap, which is one big reason why the Arctic isn’t dotted with oil wells/offshore platforms.
It’s just like the oilsands. The technology to refine tar sand has been around since the 1960s, but the cost was so much higher than the price of oil, it wasn’t worth it. It wasn’t until oil jumped over $30 a barrel that that the resource began to really be developed. Same goes for oil 10 km down.
Given that there weren’t any announcements of such deep well drilling at $147/barrel, I’m scared as to what the costs are. $250? $500?
BTW, daily consumption is closer to 80 million barrels a day, not 50 (that’s what it was back in the 80s).