Filibuster CartoonsTitle: 20110712 (click to view)
Date: July 12, 2011
Regardless of what you think of the man, or the party he leads, it's very difficult to deny that Republican House Speaker John Boehner has simply been a better negotiator during this current round of debt ceiling negotiations.
While the Democrats, led by President Obama, have consistently pleaded, in increasingly fevered terms, that an increase to the ceiling
must be passed by Congress this summer lest the United States be forced to default, and all manner of calamity ensue, the Republicans have countered with cool indifference. It's not that they necessarily
want a default any more than the Dems do; they simply refuse to entertain the idea at all. From their perspective, there is no automatic cause-and-effect. Raising the debt ceiling is bad because it justifies Uncle Sam's further spending of borrowed money. End of story. Or at least the last page they want to read.
John Dickerson over at Slate estimates that about a third of Republicans in the House of Representatives they control will simply never vote for an increase in the debt ceiling under any circumstances, and that another third of the caucus is very much on the fence. When you contrast this to the Democrats, who are 100% in favor of a raise, it's not hard to realize why the former party has the upper hand. And since appeals to fear clearly won't get them moving, the only solution is for the President to negotiate a tit-for-tat legislative compromise, almost entirely on the Republicans' terms.
In theory, it's not terribly hard to arrange what the Republicans say they want from any debt ceiling deal — namely an end to the federal government's perpetual debt addiction. Simply raise taxes, cut spending, and watch an increase in revenue and a decrease in expenditures solve the problem. But of course Republicans don't want tax raises,
any taxes raises, for anyone,
ever, which leaves only the cutting. "Cuts or nothing" has been the Republican mantra, and since the party seems equally prepared to tolerate either outcome, the Democrats find themselves bullied into a tight corner before talks even begin.
The cleverest response the Dems can muster at this point is deception. If they can offer a deal with enough spending cuts to look significant, yet not be deep enough to be too consequential, and enough tax tweaks to offer plausible deniability that they're actually
raising taxes, the Republicans might be mollified enough to pass it. This seems to be the plan at present. In order to achieve around $2.5 trillion in deficit reductions over the next decade, Democrats have said they will agree to cut spending for a variety of their beloved executive branch programs, but spare social security and medicare. They'll then drum up some modest increases in revenue though the not-quite-a-tax-hike tactic of closing several tax loopholes and tax breaks, mostly those presently employed by folks at the highest point of the income pyramid (for instance, curbing existing tax breaks offered to
jet and yacht owners).
Obviously this plan doesn't go nearly far enough in the eyes of many Republicans, both in terms of the amount of money saved and the ferocity of the cuts. It's likewise still a fairly open question as to whether or not the closing tax loopholes and scaling back tax credits will sufficiently appease anti-tax fundamentalists, who have made solemn pledges not to vote for anything even
resembling a hike, regardless of who it affects.
Regardless, it seems that Boehner is prepared to test his luck, and push ahead with a "good enough" deal sooner, rather than later. "Despite the tougher talk, aides say behind closed doors the tone in the White House meetings has been frank and constructive"
says FOX, and many Washington insiders are speculating that an arrangement is only days away. Others, however, aren't willing to take any chances. A letter signed by representatives of hundreds of leading US corporations and the US Chamber of Commerce arrived in the mailboxes of Congress and the White House
today, warning that a "default would risk both disarray in those markets and a host of unintended consequences."
In his heart, Boehner clearly believes them. But in the American system of legislative democracy, the buck ultimately stops with the House itself. And it remains to be seen if its members can be persuaded by argument alone.
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