[llama66]

from http://www.canada.com/topics/news/natio ... id=1021160

OTTAWA - To save his job and his government, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected within Conservative circles to prorogue, or suspend, Parliament this week while his party blitzes the country with a public-relations campaign aimed at discrediting the notion of a Liberal-led coalition government.
The Conservative party began airing radio ads Tuesday while ministers and other Tory spokesmen were appearing on as many all-news television channels and talk radio programs as they could to push their party's message that they will not, in the words of one of Harper's senior advisers, "allow a new radical government without the people's consent."
The all-out bare-knuckles politicking followed the unveiling Monday of a historic accord between the Liberals and the NDP to unseat Harper's minority government and replace it with a coalition supported by the Bloc Quebecois. The new coalition government would be led by Stephane Dion until May 2, his previously announced resignation date, after which time the new leader of the Liberal party would take over as prime minister. Jack Layton and five of his NDP MPs would get seats in the 24-person coalition cabinet.
The prime minister may even take to the airwaves himself this week with a nationally televised address.
For Harper, it is the fight of his political career. Many in his caucus are already grumbling that he is responsible for goading the opposition with unnecessary and incendiary initiatives in last week's economic and fiscal statement. In that document, the government proposed eliminating taxpayer subsidies for political parties and rolling back wages for public-sector unions while taking away their right to strike. Both those measures were hastily withdrawn over the weekend, but not before they had galvanized the opposition to begin the talks that would eventually lead to the coalition accord.
"I think any prime minister in that kind of situation wouldn't feel happy and won't feel comfortable," said Revenue Minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn. "This is not what the population of Canada has decided when they voted two months ago."
On Monday, as he entered the House of Commons, Conservative MPs - with two notable exceptions - gave Harper a standing ovation. Those two exceptions were Environment Minister Jim Prentice and Justice Minister Rob Nicholson, two men who could challenge for the party leadership should it come to that.
The Conservative party also launched a new website at canadiansfordemocracy.ca and were trying organize various anti-coalition rallies across the country. Conservative activists are also being encouraged to call Liberal and NDP MPs to convince them to reconsider.
Meanwhile, Gov. Gen Michaelle Jean, who will play a key role in breaking the parliamentary logjam, cut short a state visit to Europe and will return to Canada on Wednesday.
Only the Governor General can prorogue Parliament and normally does so on the advice of the prime minister. Constitutional experts agree, however, that Jean has the legal right to refuse a request from the prime minister to prorogue although few expect her to do so.
Indeed, many Liberal and NDP MPs said Tuesday they fully expect Harper to prorogue.
"They're desperate so they're going to try pretty much everything," said Pablo Rodriguez, a Liberal MP from Montreal. "I wouldn't be surprised if Harper tried every trick in the book, but at the end of the day he's going to have to understand he's lost the confidence of the Commons."
If Harper does seek a prorogation and if the Governor General refuses his request, the government would face its first and likely last confidence vote in the House of Commons on Monday. Although Jean could choose to call a new general election should the government lose a confidence motion, constitutional experts and many Conservatives themselves believe that, given how little time has elapsed since the Oct. 14 general election, she would simply invite Dion to form a government and become the country's 23rd prime minister.
Jean said in a TV interview in Prague that she has received the letter Dion sent Monday on behalf of the coalition that has formed to replace the Conservatives.
"I received his letter, and the message in the letter is clear," Jean said. "I think that my presence is required in the country, so I will be leaving tomorrow."
Asked what she would do if Harper asks for a prorogation - or suspension - of the current session of Parliament, Jean replied that her door is open when she returns.
"Before I can answer this question, I have to see what the prime minister has to say to me, and what he is actually thinking of doing. I don't know exactly anything about his intentions yet."
Dion's letter to the Governor General requests that if Harper asks her to dissolve Parliament, triggering an election, she instead exercise her authority to call on the Liberal leader "to form a new collaborative government" with the NDP and the Bloc. The rationale is that Canadians just had an election Oct. 14.
"Given the critical situation facing our fellow citizens and the refusal and inability of the Harper government to deal with this critical situation, the opposition parties have decided that it was now time to take action," Dion said Monday at the accord signing, flanked by NDP Leader Jack Layton and Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe.
Harper did not speak to reporters Monday but at a Christmas party for Conservative staffers at an Ottawa hotel, he told supporters the country's very unity was at stake.
"We will use all legal means to resist this undemocratic seizure of power," Harper said.
Harper has also urged the opposition parties to at least wait for his government's budget, which will be tabled on Jan. 27.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty accused the opposition parties of having no confidence in the Canadian economy. "They would rather make a deal with the devil," Flaherty said.
"This is a coalition that's supported by separatists, people who would break up our country," said Environment Minister Jim Prentice. "This is a serious situation. It is irresponsible and it is undemocratic."
Duceppe said his party is ready to support the coalition because the Conservatives chose partisan games based on ideological beliefs instead of considering the interests of Quebecers and Canadians.
"Since last Friday, the Conservatives have retreated on some points, but nothing could restore the trust that was broken by Stephen Harper," Duceppe said.
"In front of the urgency to act on the economic crisis, we started negotiations with the other opposition parties. Each one showed openness and a willingness to make compromises, which allowed us to reach an agreement."


© Canwest News Service 2008

[Jabrwock]

mtbr wrote:

you can call it shear force of stubbornness but it is in the PMs power to pull the plug on Parliament. It's in the same rule book that says the other parties can form a coalition.

Technically, no. It's in the PM's power to ask the GG to dissolve Parliament and ask for an election. The actual power resides solely with the Governor General, and her only requirement is to make sure Parliament meets at least once a year (to pass a budget), and that general elections happen no later than every five years. Other than that, she responds to the will of Parliament, not necessarily the largest party in it. That's why Governor General Byrd back in the 20's was able to appoint the opposition leader as PM. Granted it only lasted a few days, but that was because his first day back he lost a confidence vote, so the GG was left with little choice but a general election, because nobody in Parliament could hope to achieve 50%+1 support of the House.

The Conservatives may hem and haw about how this is a coup, but the Government of Canada is formed by whomever has the support of Parliament. If that's a coalition of parties, then that's who forms the government. The test is the first Throne Speech. If the coalition can't hold together to even pass that, then the GG has no choice but to hold elections. But until it's demonstrated that nobody has the support of Parliament, then she's under no obligation to hold elections (except for the 5 year time limit).

The only option Harper has is to prorogue, and that too is under the control of the GG. She has the power to refuse him, although it's never been exercised before. Then again, no PM has ever used proroguing to try to delay a confidence vote at the start of a new session either... Harper asked for a prorogue last year, but it was a short recess three quarters of the way through a session to clear the books and allow bills to be re-introduced before the holidays.

[Shablabar]

llama66 wrote:

To save his job and his government, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected within Conservative circles to prorogue, or suspend, Parliament this week while his party blitzes the country with a public-relations campaign aimed at discrediting the notion of a Liberal-led coalition government.

Just as I thought. This one will simmer until January, and nothing will likely come of it. Still -- an interesting exercise in constitutional 'what-ifs'.

[Jabrwock]

Shablabar wrote:

Just as I thought. This one will simmer until January, and nothing will likely come of it. Still -- an interesting exercise in constitutional 'what-ifs'.

Technically, he *could* prorogue until Dec '09, Parliament is only required to meet once a year (to pass the Budget). But I think there'd be riots if he did that...

[Shablabar]

Jabrwock wrote:

Technically, no. It's in the PM's power to ask the GG to dissolve Parliament and ask for an election. The actual power resides solely with the Governor General, and her only requirement is to make sure Parliament meets at least once a year (to pass a budget), and that general elections happen no later than every five years. Other than that, she responds to the will of Parliament, not necessarily the largest party in it.

I hate to nit-pick, but the GG doesn't respond to 'the will of Parliament', she follows the advice of the Privy Council, whose authority to advise the GG is delegated to one of its committees, namely Cabinet. However, constitutional conventions that have evolved as a response to the practicalities of government have delegated most of the authority of Cabinet to the Prime Minister alone. The Prime Minister alone advises the GG to summon, prorogue, or dissolve Parliament, and appoint Senators, &c. In fact, the actual dynamics of Cabinet involvement in these decisions varies greatly from Prime Minister to Prime Minister. As I understand it, Orders-in-Council, Royal Assent, and the Speech from the Throne typically involve a high degree of Cabinet involvement, while appointments to the Civil Service, Awards and Honours, and military commissions are delegated to government agencies and bureaucracies, with Cabinet only acting as a rubber stamp.

The only way in which the GG 'responds to the will of Parliament' is indirectly; her choice of Prime Minister must be informed by the practical realities of getting legislation passed and holding the House's confidence.

[Shablabar]

Jabrwock wrote:

Technically, he *could* prorogue until Dec '09, Parliament is only required to meet once a year (to pass the Budget). But I think there'd be riots if he did that...

Now *that* would be interesting...

[Sapio]

llama66 wrote:

Sapio wrote:

They are going to print it.

I hope to christ not, otherwise things are going to really suck, for a long time.

That is their plan, thank the Federal Revere . Both Demo and Rep have a plan to do this. There is only one congressman down there fight this plan.

[Jabrwock]

Shablabar wrote:

I hate to nit-pick, but the GG doesn't respond to 'the will of Parliament'... her choice of Prime Minister must be informed by the practical realities of getting legislation passed and holding the House's confidence.

True, but if the PM does not have the support of the House, then ignoring the will of Parliament is a bad idea.

The PM, as well as the Cabinet, are nearly always members of the Privy Council, all members of which are chosen by the GG. The PM is usually exclusively in charge of the requests for election, proroguing, etc, because he's the party leader. BUT since she only takes their advice into consideration, if say there were a Cabinet coup, she could ignore the PM and rely on the rest of the Council's advice instead. Or in fact ignore the whole Council.

[Shablabar]

^^^^ True. But I'm not sure any GG who valued the continued existence of the office would ignore the will of the PC like that. Constitutional conventions are powerful traditions that entrench the legitimacy of government. Though they are not legal requirements, as the Supreme Court said in the Patriation Reference they can't 'crystallize into law', for all intents and purposes they are binding. But then we could cover a bald man with all the hairs we've been splitting!

[Jabrwock]

Shablabar wrote:

^^^^ True. But I'm not sure any GG who valued the continued existence of the office would ignore the will of the PC like that. Constitutional conventions are powerful traditions that entrench the legitimacy of government. Though they are not legal requirements, as the Supreme Court said in the Patriation Reference they can't 'crystallize into law', for all intents and purposes they are binding. But then we could cover a bald man with all the hairs we've been splitting!

More than a few I imagine.

Still, at least *we* know how it works. It seems to me that the Conservative PR staffers failed to read the constitution. Either that or they are deliberately lying through their teeth as part of a PR game, but they wouldn't *possibly* do that for political gain, right?

[Shablabar]

No kidding. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds. As much as I'd like to have this coalition in power (and that mostly for curiosity's sake), I think the best long term plan would be to have Parliament prorogued, and in January (probably) when it's summoned back, have the Conservatives make a bunch of concessions to the opposition that further weakens Harper's stance within his own party. In May, the Liberals will have a new leader, and hopefully a new fundraising apparatus (it's already off the ground), with which to fight an election.

Ultimately, though, I'm just sick of minority governments. I blame the Bloc. I bet it'll be a decade before we see another majority. In the mean time, everyone's gonna have to learn to get along (or form a coalition! )

[Jabrwock]

Shablabar wrote:

In the mean time, everyone's gonna have to learn to get along (or form a coalition! )

I'm still waiting for certain individuals to explain what the difference is between kowtowing to the Bloc in order to stay in power, and kowtowing to the Bloc to gain power.

[Sapio]

CKASlacker wrote:

llama66 wrote:

yea I remember this movie too. the ending had alot of goosestepping and people asking "ihre papiers, bitte" and some people being sent to the ghetto, really it sucked.

Especially when you consider the straightforward way to connect these dots:

Germany Depression --> Rise of Hitler --> usurpation of Chancellorship --> WWII --> Auchswitz

I'm not saying that this will lead to some sort of holocaust in any shape or form as to what happened then... but the point is that a lot of bad may come of this in the long run.

Well put. I think we need to send the leaders a copy of "A Road to Serfdom".

[Shablabar]

Jabrwock wrote:

I'm still waiting for certain individuals to explain what the difference is between kowtowing to the Bloc in order to stay in power, and kowtowing to the Bloc to gain power.

Absolutely. People have to stop demonizing the Bloc. It's all to easy to attack someone for working with the Bogey Man Separatists -- but everyone on the Hill has done it. They're not even really a separatist party anymore, just an annoying regional one. Separatism is losing steam in Quebec, and none too soon. Why not work with them on an issue to issue basis until they fizzle out and die? It's a practical necessity in any case.

[Shablabar]

Sapio wrote:

CKASlacker wrote:

Germany Depression --> Rise of Hitler --> usurpation of Chancellorship --> WWII --> Auchswitz

I'm not saying that this will lead to some sort of holocaust in any shape or form as to what happened then... but the point is that a lot of bad may come of this in the long run.

Well put. I think we need to send the leaders a copy of "A Road to Serfdom".

Give me a break.

Q.V.: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_Law