[knoper]

OK, since its a really boring election, my mind has wandered a bit, and one of JJ's earlier comments put a thought in my head.

Go back to 2003. Paul Martin is basically on top of Canada's political world, the Alliance has just gotten back on its feet (if not its earlier position), and Peter MacKay has run the Progressive Conservatives into the ground. The NDP has a bigger voice, and the Bloc is moribund.

Now, say, instead of what really happened, the merger discussions fall apart, over say, the leadership formula (100 per riding). Harper gets some kudos from the base for standing up for democracy, but no real popular bounce: MacKay looks worse than ever. Martin takes over, and the Bloc presses Sponsorship. With only the Bloc and Harper pressing, an no real alterative present, Martin pulls a Chretien and appoints a royal commission, rationalizing everything under the unity banner.

In the election, the Bloc makes some gains, the Alliance holds at about 40 after BC losses, the Tories hit 10 with the loss of Clark's seat and another, the NDP gets some intercity ridings attacking Martin from the left for 40 or so, and Martin gets 170 or so. Not 200, but still a majority, and a more regionally balanced one than the 2/3 Ontario ones.

And so, Martin would have to move: His Western caucus would push Senate Reform with the provinces, which would probably take up most of his time. He would probably stall on same sex marriage to not strain caucus and hold his so-con Toronto ridings. Despite some yelps from the other benches, he wouldn't have to go on spending sprees to keep up in the news, except probably Kelowna. Health care would be the same dearth it always is. The party wars would continue, especially if he put all of the Liberal senator's jobs on the line, and if Afghanistan heats up like it did.

The opposition? The dead Tories and the Alliance would probably merge according to Mike Harris's original plan, destroyed and ready to unite under his leadership if only to hold on to Official Opposition. Corporate Canada sees the right has its act together, and starts the donations again. The NDP faces regional tensions from its remaining Western bastions to level with Martin on the Senate, but has SSM and Afghanistan as ammunition.

The 2008 election would feature a fractured Liberal party with an aging leader and little purpose, attacked from its left by a rejuvinated NDP and from its right with a tested Ontario leader, and in Quebec by a Bloc that pushes Martin's "Western Agenda".

So, my conclusion? It probably would have been better for Canada's [c]onservative movement if Paul Martin had been allowed to sail in 2004. Care to discuss?