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Filibuster Cartoons
Title: Layton's dream (click to view)
Date: April 25, 2011
Finally, an interesting development in Canada's otherwise exceedingly dull 2011 federal election!

A number of national polls are now predicting that if the election were held today, the Jack Layton-led NDP would actually eclipse the Liberal Party, and wind up in a strong second place. One particularly striking survey released this morning predicted that the NDP might, in fact, win over 100 seats in the House of Commons, ably besting the Liberals' 69 and putting them within striking distance of the Conservatives' 131. If true, it would be the most dramatic upset of the Canadian two-party system in almost 20 years.

As I write below, I'm at a bit of a loss to explain why, exactly, the NDP has become so popular so quickly, aside from the obvious fact that their rise is a byproduct of Mr. Layton's incredibly popular personal brand. For all the recent scolding of "parliamentary experts" who say we should stop viewing federal elections as referendums on potential prime ministers, it's worth noting that no campaign has been more unabashedly "presidential" than the New Democrats', where it's impossible to consume any partisan propaganda without being aggressively reminded that a vote for the NDP is a vote for a Layton-led government.

What is clear in my mind, however, is that rising NDP fortunes, coupled with the party's extreme focus on Layton's sacred leadership, makes it increasingly unlikely that we'll see a Liberal-NDP coalition government emerge from the aftermath of this election. A distinguished term as Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is probably the best Jack can hope for.

Unlike Iggy, Layton has never denied that he'd like to participate in a so-called "coalition of the losers" if the Harper Conservatives win a third minority, but the stronger his party gets, ironically, the weaker his hand becomes.

To the extent the Liberals have found common cause with the NDP in recent years, its been based on the patronizing assumption that the New Democrats will be satisfied sitting at the kids' table of any future alliance, and leave all serious decision-making to the adults. A too-strong NDP threatens this pecking order, and a second-place NDP ruins it entirely. If they hold the majority of seats in a "united left" parliamentary coalition, the NDP would obviously insist on making Layton prime minister and giving the majority of cabinet spots to New Democrats. Such a proposal would be anathema to the Liberals, who still like to cling to the fantasy that they are the "Natural Governing Party" of the country, and the NDP is just some flash-in-the-pan fad. Plus, if the Layton administration collapses amid madness or incompetence — which I think would be the quite likely outcome of a minority government led by his team of far-left city council drop-outs — the Liberal Party brand would be forever-tainted by association, and would beautifully demonstrate the oft-repeated Conservative mantra that the Liberals and NDP are too "reckless" to provide good government.

As I wrote on The Mace this week, I think the much more likely outcome of a Layton-led official opposition is, well, not much. Since this election has been so devoid of substance and meaningful debates on actual factual issues, it's very difficult to make the case that the rise of the social-democratic NDP is the result of some sharp swing to the left on the part of the Canadian public. More likely, I think the polling data suggests that voters are simply sick of the endless mudslinging and crookedness of the two establishment parties, and are willing to cast a protest vote for the gang that seems least tainted by the Ottawa power bug.

The public's extreme hatred of Michael Ignatieff — which I find equally perplexing — is also a likely motivator for an NDP surge. The Canadian left has been extaordinary vocal about the need to displace Stephen Harper at all costs this election (indeed, it's pretty much their only real issue) and a ton of websites have sprung up emphasizing the technique of "strategic" anti-Conservative voting to unseat the government. This has, in turn, downplayed the traditional narrative of the Liberals as "the only viable alternative," in favor of a mad scramble to vote for whatever party's candidate seems to have the statistically best chance of defeating a Conservative. Since there are a bunch of tight NDP-Conservative races this time around, a lot of ordinarily Liberal voters appear to be holding their noses to some degree and and supporting the lesser of two evils.

In short, the NDP's rising tide strikes me as very much the sort of thing the political "market," such as it is, will ultimately correct in the long term. It could very possibly happen before this election is even over, in fact.

[martin14]

Quote:

I'm at a bit of a loss to explain why, exactly the NDP has become so popular so quickly

People are pissed off.

The lefties have a choice, couple of choices actually.


The righties don't, we have only Stevie.

[Kjorteo]

I concur; it appears that Layton is just really good at strategically placing himself in a position to fill the void left by all the liberals who hate the Liberals.

On that subject, it somehow amuses me that the Liberals fell so far that Sephane Dion *not* getting to be PM was a historical note, yet all signs point to Iggy being their second bust in a row.

[DanSC]

Of course voters are leaving the Liberals for the NDP. Ignatieff is a secret American.

[CommanderSock]

I agree with most of your analysis apart from

Quote:

In short, the NDP's rising tide strikes me as very much the sort of thing the political "market," such as it is, will ultimately correct in the long term. It could very possibly happen before this election is even over, in fact.

Lefties are waiting to the last poll to decide who will most likely derail the conservative agenda (emphasis on agenda, and not Harper himself, although many lefties do hate the man, me personally, I think it's his caucus that's worse).

My riding is a straight battle between NDP and Libs, cons have no chance, and many liberal voters here will strategically vote for the party that most likely will keep Harper in the tightest check. Right now, Layton seems to be the one.

[Kjorteo]

Have the Conservatives targeted the NDP yet? They've pretty much already done all the damage they're going to do to Iggy, and firing more torpedoes at the ship that's already sinking just in case while ignoring the one that's actually still approaching seems like questionable strategy.

[CKASlacker]

Kjorteo wrote:

Have the Conservatives targeted the NDP yet? They've pretty much already done all the damage they're going to do to Iggy, and firing more torpedoes at the ship that's already sinking just in case while ignoring the one that's actually still approaching seems like questionable strategy.

Layton and the NDP have kind of come from nowhere. I watched both debates, and the while Layton did OK, it wasn't like he trumped them completely. In fact, what I most remember is Duceppe trying to get Layton to be realistic and admit that he has no chance of being PM.

Whether that statement has aroused an anti-Bloc sentiment and now Canadians are turning to the NDP out of spite seems a stretch.

[Dragon-Dancer]

Layton's brand has been consistent and growing since he became leader of the party. He's very rarely swayed from his party's line and generally not thrown too many curve balls at the public. Generally he and his party tend to come off as fairly likable and people friendly so I'm not all that surprised that in the wake of inconsistent Liberal platforms and weak leadership that people are choosing an alternative.

Also the NDP is quite appealing to many Quebecois who want a change from the Bloc apparently, or so the polls and my Quebec relatives are telling me.

[peck420]

CKASlacker wrote:

Layton and the NDP have kind of come from nowhere. I watched both debates, and the while Layton did OK, it wasn't like he trumped them completely. In fact, what I most remember is Duceppe trying to get Layton to be realistic and admit that he has no chance of being PM.

Whether that statement has aroused an anti-Bloc sentiment and now Canadians are turning to the NDP out of spite seems a stretch.

You hit the nail on the head here.

Duceppe made a major error by attacking Layton. It might even end up costing Duceppe his job. Bloc voters are dropping fast, with most going directly to NDP. Something about NDP being the closest ideologically to the Bloc, and Layton being seen in Quebec as a stand up guy.

Why Duceppe would attack a potential ally?...who knows.

Here is the latest from the NANOS Tracker.

Go to page 2 and look at Quebecs daily numbers, crazy stuff, but good for Canada I think.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110424-BallotE.pdf

[Kjorteo]

If this actually holds through all the way through election day, the NDP surges (possibly to opposition level?) and the Bloc implodes (possibly to no-more-Duceppe level?) then... well... at least wouldn't be another one of those boring elections where nothing happens.

Granted, exciting trends about what could potentially happen in Parliament don't automatically mean that's what the actual results are going to be when the time comes--just ask Nick Clegg.

(Geez, I know too much about this stuff. That little flag next to my username that denotes where I'm from is still American, isn't it? How on Earth did I just reference the UK Parliamentary election to make a point about the Canadian one?)

[SteveK]

I can't remember who suggested it, but I remember someone suggesting that if Layton took the leadership of the Liberal Party, they would sweep the Conservatives at the election. I think I might agree with that. It's not necessarily the NDP's policies/initiatives that is causing the shift of left-wing thinkers towards the NDP, it's their leadership (Layton).

Maybe Jack should consider switching over if things don't work out.

[raydan]

For me as least, he looks and sounds like the best party leader we have right now.
Too bad the NDP will never get a majority in his lifetime.

[2Cdo]

raydan wrote:

For me as least, he looks and sounds like the best party leader we have right now.
Too bad the NDP will never get a majority in his lifetime.

Or even a minority. His best shot, and it's a long shot, is leader of the opposition.

[CommanderSock]

2Cdo wrote:

raydan wrote:

For me as least, he looks and sounds like the best party leader we have right now.
Too bad the NDP will never get a majority in his lifetime.

Or even a minority. His best shot, and it's a long shot, is leader of the opposition.

If the NDP get their 100 seats or so, and they lock Harper in a minority, then it is very possible our next PM will be Layton.

Other than that, we go to the polls June 2nd.

[Bruce_the_vii]

I read the comment above that there had been no substance in the election. Actually they have all made promises. Some of the dollar figures posted about Jack's promises are huge. However, I can't make heads or tails out of them. There's the deficit for one. Jacks CPP promise is hugely expensive. Flaherty's $50 billion tax cut for corporations on deficit is well beyond my economics. In that sense there is no substance - just all this froth.