[Newsbot]

Filibuster Cartoons
Title: The first nuclear commandment (click to view)
Date: August 11, 2010
In a story that did not get a lot of press this week, the Obama administration has announced that it plans to go ahead with a nuclear technology deal with the Communist nation of Vietnam, despite that country's refusal to make a pledge to not enrich uranium. Enriching uranium is the first step towards bomb-making, and we may recall, the whole brouhaha with Iran largely stems from President Ahmadinejad's refusal to stop doing it. In a display of good global citizenship earlier last year, the United Arab Emirates promised the US that it would not enrich uranium as part of a similar binational nuke-tech deal, but Vietnam has not been quite so willing to roll over.

It's interesting to watch the slow evolution of the postwar relationship between Vietnam and America, and the atmosphere of awkward, guilty tension that seems to define it. Vietnam remains, after all, a vicious Communist dictatorship, and in other circumstances one can imagine the States recoiling from the possibility that such a nation could soon be in the possession of nuclear arms. When Vietnam's case study (to say nothing of Pakistan and China) is viewed in contrast to the treatment of Iran and North Korea, the principle that dictatorships should not be in the possession of nukes seems to be getting more hazy and arbitrarily enforced by the day.

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[saturn_656]

Quote:

In a story that did not get a lot of press this week, the Obama administration has announced that it plans to go ahead with a nuclear technology deal with the Communist nation of Vietnam, despite that country's refusal to make a pledge to not enrich uranium.

Unwise.

[BartSimpson]

Vietnam is not a threat to the USA. It is a threat to China. That's not an excuse for this policy , if it happens, but I more expect that this is really intended to be a bargaining chip for some sort of deal with China.

[Murray_Smith]

The comparison between Vietnam and the U.A.E. seems a bit unfair. The U.A.E. is making its name as an economic powerhouse (houses built on sand notwithstanding) while Vietnam is a Communist dictatorship.

Ultra-simplified analogy: Sam is in the fireworks business, and he has two associates making gunpowder. Umar is a ridiculously rich guy who is friends with a lot of Sam's friends. Vivi has often been involved in shady activities with her neighbors.

Would you be surprised if Umar agreed not to make gunpowder at home for personal use, but Vivi was more reluctant?

I don't think the U.S. has much to fear from a nuclear-powered Vietnam, especially given that I see a lot of merchandise that says "Made in Vietnam".

Bart, how is Vietnam a threat to China?

[BartSimpson]

Murray_Smith wrote:

Bart, how is Vietnam a threat to China?

China wants to control the Spratly Islands for their oil reserves and those islands are also claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam. A nuclear armed Vietnam would be better suited to assert sovereignty of these islands and to foul China's ambitions for a western Pacific hegemony. The two Communist countries have a history of war and have never been close. Vietnam was a Soviet client state and not a ChiCom client state.

Add to this the fact that all of China would be in range of the IMRBM forces that Vietnam has maintained in a conventional state for some time. Adding nukes to those forces means Hanoi can directly threaten Beijing and give pause to the old farts that run China.

[Quantum_Wizard]

The administration probably doesn't think that Vietnam would really develop nukes, or else they wouldn't do this. It's not that unlikely that Vietnam wouldn't enrich uranium, after all, or would only enrich it for power generation.

Not many trust Iran enrich uranium for peaceful purposes only, but apparently Vietnam is deemed more trustworthy.

[Pseudonym]

I think "Thy is" should be replaced with "Thou art".

(totally not a grammar nazi)

[Bruce_the_vii]

There's going to be an energy cruch and nuclear power will be part of the response. Nuclear power is going to get very wide spread and they will have to start planning now. It'll be difficult to have a play book.

[Psudo]

Quantum_Wizard wrote:

The administration probably doesn't think that Vietnam would really develop nukes, or else they wouldn't do this.

It could be part of some negotiation with China over North Korea.
<USA> China, as the world's biggest influence on North Korea, you need to reign them in.
<China> If we do you a favor, we need one in return. Leave us Taipei and we'll give you North Korea.
<USA> We will not negotiate Taiwan. They are their own, not ours.
<China> Then we have nothing to discuss.
--- Viet Nam/US Nuclear Agreement ---
<USA> You stop North Korea's nuclear weapons program, and we'll stop Viet Nam's.

China might take that deal.

[Calbeck]

Quantum_Wizard wrote:

Not many trust Iran enrich uranium for peaceful purposes only, but apparently Vietnam is deemed more trustworthy.

I think it's more a matter of Iran being openly supportive and exportive of Islamic terrorism, with a Holocaust-denier President who insists gays do not exist in his country, and which is ultimately dominated by an essentially omnipotent extremist clergy.

Imagine the United States being taken over by the televangelist clique, and see just how much more uncomfortable you feel about OUR having nukes.

[martin14]

Psudo wrote:

Quantum_Wizard wrote:

The administration probably doesn't think that Vietnam would really develop nukes, or else they wouldn't do this.

It could be part of some negotiation with China over North Korea.
<USA> China, as the world's biggest influence on North Korea, you need to reign them in.
<China> If we do you a favor, we need one in return. Leave us Taipei and we'll give you North Korea.
<USA> We will not negotiate Taiwan. They are their own, not ours.
<China> Then we have nothing to discuss.
--- Viet Nam/US Nuclear Agreement ---
<USA> You stop North Korea's nuclear weapons program, and we'll stop Viet Nam's.

China might take that deal.

Interesting idea..

[Bruce_the_vii]

Thirt years ago I was in a debate about nuclear energy at my energy issues club and I realized that nuclear electricity or no nuclear electricity The Bomb is going to be used again. Eventually a third world nut will use it. Hopefully it won't be New York City or something.

[Quantum_Wizard]

Calbeck wrote:

Quantum_Wizard wrote:

Not many trust Iran enrich uranium for peaceful purposes only, but apparently Vietnam is deemed more trustworthy.

I think it's more a matter of Iran being openly supportive and exportive of Islamic terrorism, with a Holocaust-denier President who insists gays do not exist in his country, and which is ultimately dominated by an essentially omnipotent extremist clergy.

Well, don't those reasons you listed make Iran untrustworthy in the eyes of Americans (and many others). You don't seem to disagree with me.

Iran claims that it's not bombs that it's enriching its uranium for, but many disbelieve them. In addition to the issues you listed, there's the animosity they feel towards Israel, which might give them a motive for acquiring the bomb.

Calbeck wrote:

Imagine the United States being taken over by the televangelist clique, and see just how much more uncomfortable you feel about OUR having nukes.

Obviously, anyone in their right mind would be uncomfortable with Iran having nukes. Still I'd say the administration wouldn't want Vietnam to have nukes either (though that's not as bad as nuclear Iran).

Though Vietnam hasn't pledged to not enrich uranium but they have essentially pledged to not develop nukes since they are a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran is also, but they are not trusted to not violate it.

[Psudo]

Quantum_Wizard wrote:

Iran claims that it's not bombs that it's enriching its uranium for, but many disbelieve them. In addition to the issues you listed, there's the animosity they feel towards Israel, which might give them a motive for acquiring the bomb.

The disbelief is because there is no further electrical power production gained by enriching uranium past a certain point. Iran was enriching uranium significantly past that point, though not quite to the level typical for nuclear weapons (except dirty bombs, which can use anything). A confusing action, but given the danger of nuclear weapons people acted on their fear of the worst.

This all applies to Viet Nam, too, except that they haven't done any enrichment yet.

[Zipperfish]

Given the technology is now 70 years old, I wonder how much trying to control the proliferation of nuclear weapons is trying to put the genie back in the bottle.

Makes me wonder what new weapons could be in the works to make the nuclear bomb look like a firecracker.