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Remember how we talked about the B.C. Lions being an overwhelming Grey Cup favourite heading into the divisional finals? Well, they took care of business with a dominant 40-23 thumping of Edmonton in the West Final to earn a berth in the big game, and now they're an even more overwhelming favourite to lift Earl Grey's cup (former Canadian governor general Earl Albert Grey, not the former British prime minister Earl Charles Grey the tea is named after). Whether it's their league-best +126 point differential, their dominating defence (which topped the CFL with just 385 points allowed), or their home-field advantage in the big game, the predictions already in heavily favour the Lions.
We'll start with a non-betting pick from stats guru Rob Pettapiece of The CIS Blog. Pettapiece's odds have a few sizeable advantages over the sports books, the biggest one being that they're generated to provide strict win probability rather than to try and even out the betting on both sides. He's also doing well at the moment, as his system called both of the divisional finals correctly, and his odds for the big game are the most notable; he has B.C. favoured by 11.5 points and gives them a win probability of 85 per cent.
The sports books that have already weighed in don't go quite as far, but they still have the Lions as substantial favourites. The Vegas Hilton and Sportsbook.com have B.C. -7, with a -110 money line. BetOnline also has B.C. -7 with a -105 money line, and SportsInteraction shares the -7 line. Bet365 is the most favourable to the Blue Bombers, but not by much; their spread is B.C. -6.5. (For reference, B.C. was -6.5 in the divisional final against Edmonton). A touchdown spread is reasonably large, so obviously the oddsmakers feel B.C.'s a pretty substantial favourite here.
Continued at;
http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/cfl/blog/cfl ... cfl-wp2072
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