[eureka]

Major storms could submerge New York City in next decade

Sea-level rise due to climate change could cripple the city in Irene-like storm scenarios, new climate report claims

Irene-like storms of the future would put a third of New York City streets under water and flood many of the tunnels leading into Manhattan in under an hour because of climate change, a new state government report warns Wednesday.

Sea level rise due to climate change would leave lower Manhattan dangerously exposed to flood surges during major storms, the report, which looks at the impact of climate change across the entire state of New York, warns.

"The risks and the impacts are huge," said Art deGaetano, a climate scientist at Cornell University and lead author of the ClimAID study. "Clearly areas of the city that are currently inhabited will be uninhabitable with the rising of the sea."

Factor in storm surges, and the scenario becomes even more frightening, he said. "Subway tunnels get affected, airports - both LaGuardia and Kennedy sit right at sea level - and when you are talking about the lowest areas of the city you are talking about the business districts."

The report, commisioned by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, said the effects of sea level rise and changing weather patterns would be felt as early as the next decade.

By the mid-2020s, sea level rise around Manhattan and Long Island could be up to 10 inches, assuming the rapid melting of polar sea ice continues. By 2050, sea-rise could reach 2.5ft and more than 4.5ft by 2080 under the same conditions.

In such a scenario, many of the tunnels - subway, highway, and rail - crossing into the Bronx beneath the Harlem River, and under the East River would be flooded within the hour, the report said. Some transport systems could be out of operation for up to a month.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... -york-city

[Gunnair]

Got a link to the report and not an alarmist newspaper article?

[Brenda]

Gunnair wrote:

Got a link to the report and not an alarmist newspaper article?

BUAHAHAHAHA!!!

You just made my day

[eureka]

The link is in the report. To the New York State Energy Authority or some such title. A report done for the state of New York.

[BartSimpson]

eureka wrote:

Major storms could submerge New York City in next decade

So your headline is untrue. The climate disaster isn't here, it's projected for ten years from now and, of course, when 2022 comes around and nothing happens you'll deny ever having posted this pile of bullsh*t.

[jeff744]

BartSimpson wrote:

eureka wrote:

Major storms could submerge New York City in next decade

So your headline is untrue. The climate disaster isn't here, it's projected for ten years from now and, of course, when 2022 comes around and nothing happens you'll deny ever having posted this pile of bullsh*t.

The funny part is how they are talking about decades when they have trouble telling us how the weather will be next year. Hell, they said it would be the coldest winter for a long time Canada wide last year, for my region is was one of the warmest.

[peck420]

Here is a link to the actual report (ClimAID, Cornell):
http://nyserda.ny.gov/~/media/Files/Publications/Research/Environmental/EMEP/climaid/responding-to-climate-change-synthesis.ashx?sc_database=web

I haven't had time to review it myself so no comment yet.

Any chance, Zip could take a gander, as most will be over my head anyways.

[andyt]

I got as far as page 22. Seems pretty straightforward to me - this is written for a general audience. But I also don't see any discussion of current climate change effects. This is meant to boost support for climate change adaptation strategies for future effects.

But here's what NASA says: Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering sooner.

Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result from global climate change are now occuring: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves.

[Scape]

http://earthsky.org/earth/frank-wentz-w ... e-rainfall

[Bruce_E_T]

jeff744 wrote:

The funny part is how they are talking about decades when they have trouble telling us how the weather will be next year. Hell, they said it would be the coldest winter for a long time Canada wide last year, for my region is was one of the warmest.

I think it is much easier to do a long term projection as opposed to day to day. You have the benefit Of decades of data that avarage out the fuctuations. I looked through the report posted by peck420 and there are lots of graphs and maps which domonstrate the long term trends.

I live in the "Great Lakes Basin weather chaos system". If they can tell me hot to cold, cold to hot, big rain or big snow I am happy.

I thought the posted report was very good. Makes NY state seem interesting. I notice they call the Buffalo/Rochester area the "Southern Tier" Someone from West Texas must be involved here, or visa versa.

Anyhow a very attractive report, I thought.

[commanderkai]

Haven't we heard these sorts of reports before? Aren't we already supposed to be in some climate change apocalypse? We only had ten years a decade ago, and now I'm guessing that God or Mother Nature is giving us another 10 year extension?

[eureka]

commanderkai wrote:

Haven't we heard these sorts of reports before? Aren't we already supposed to be in some climate change apocalypse? We only had ten years a decade ago, and now I'm guessing that God or Mother Nature is giving us another 10 year extension?

We have only five years now! I thought about posting the International Energy Agency's assessment for 2011 but decided you were too fragile to have to face that.

That agency now says that if we do not get a handle on this by 2017 then a temperature increase of 3.5C is locked in: cannot be avoided. That, btw, would be the same as it was 3.3 million years ago when sea levels were 25 metres higher than now.

It also calculates the cost of action after that to prevent even worse to be four or five percent of world GDP.

Business as it is now will see an increase of 6C or more. And that would be game over. Mass extinction and humans gone too or existing precariously and primitively in very reduced numbers.

And much of that is also not in a very distant future.

The embellishments are mine. The agency just gives the facts that knowledge of what has been said about various scenarios lead to the conclusions.

But don't get too upset. The swelling tide of evidence will probably make politicians wake up.

[Gunnair]

eureka wrote:

The link is in the report. To the New York State Energy Authority or some such title. A report done for the state of New York.

Well it was a quick look at the link but I didn't see the actual report just the agency it was written for.

So... Do you have a link to this article?

[Strutz]

Eureka's first post made me think of the movie "The Day after Tomorrow"

[peck420]

Gunnair,

The link to the study was not in the article.

The link in the article was to NYS Energy Authority page, which came up with nothing when I searched for the report (title of actual report is different than search parameters I used based on article report title [climAID]).

Found the actual report by searching ClimAID + Cornell, which linked it to NY.gov site with pdf of the report, titled "Responding to Climate Change in New York State".