[Scape]

I don't see a conflict that would be conventional, rather what I see between China and Japan is the exact same thing that is happening between Canada and the US. Economic annexation. Japan will still remain a country in name but the economy will gradually become subverted as they are drawn towards the economic black hole of China. Given the choice between armed conflict on the trade lanes and economic subservient Japan will submit because it needs a constant flow of incoming resources to exist.

It will be a slow change but China is always working the long game, over decades at least. The Japanese will succumb like frogs in slowly boiling water. Same way the US is buying up Canada. Before you know it the country is hollowed out from within.

[Kirk]

So many dictators falling lately.....

[Scape]

Ya, Rob looks so sad...

[Thanos]

ShepherdsDog wrote:

The fascism I was referring to was that of China. Authoritarian rule, based on Confucian principles, with quasi free markets.

I know. It's just that I get a bit weirded out when others (not you) get all spooked by the idea of Japan and Germany being more forceful in world affairs. It's probably not possible to expect rational thinking in a culture that's gotten as stupid as ours has over the past few decades, but a view of these other nations shouldn't be formed by those who watched too many* stupid Hollywood movies based in WW2. Nations change over time. Canada, for example, had a governor general in the late 1930's who basically said out loud that one Jew in Canada was one Jew too many, essentially putting words to the prevailing attitude of the time that left us with a moral stain regarding the Jews that we couldn't be bothered to help escape from the Nazis. Now things have gone completely the other way, where we've gone so far overbaord in helping refugees that even Conservative governments practically roll out the red carpet for those (e.g. the Tamils) who don't even in the slightest deserve it. It's not the 1940's anymore and there's really no justification at all for some people to keep pretending that the state of existence and patterns of thought from back then should be guiding us today. The modern Chinese economic and social renaissance is almost totally dependent on them being able to sell cheap-ass goods to us. A period of more-or-less stable peace has done more for them than any foreign conquests ever will. They have no vested interest in killing off their best customers so why we have to regard them as the "next big imminent threat" is beyond me. The world's changed and great countries make more money by selling crap and lending money to each other than they do by bombing each other. Living in a state of perpetual Cold War-esque paranoia towards each other died out as a rational state of being a long, long time ago. We should really save the other way of thinking for actual threats, like North Korea and Iran, than for former enemies from seventy years ago or for the guys who keep the shelves at WalMart full for of garbage for us to buy.

* Too many stupid war movies = practically all of them.

[Kirk]

South Korean stock market plunging...down 4%

[BRAH]

[Mr_Canada]

We've lost the butt of many great jokes, sadly...

[SprCForr]

So, so ronery.

Poor Kim, no more looking at things...

Kim Jong Il looking at things

[andyt]

Scape wrote:

I don't see a conflict that would be conventional, rather what I see between China and Japan is the exact same thing that is happening between Canada and the US. Economic annexation. Japan will still remain a country in name but the economy will gradually become subverted as they are drawn towards the economic black hole of China. Given the choice between armed conflict on the trade lanes and economic subservient Japan will submit because it needs a constant flow of incoming resources to exist.

It will be a slow change but China is always working the long game, over decades at least. The Japanese will succumb like frogs in slowly boiling water. Same way the US is buying up Canada. Before you know it the country is hollowed out from within.

Interesting idea.

[andyt]

North Korea's military to share power with Kim's heir

BEIJING (Reuters) - North Korea will shift to collective rule from a strongman dictatorship after last week's death of Kim Jong-il, although his untested young son will be at the head of the ruling coterie, a source with close ties to Pyongyang and Beijing said.
The source added that the military, which is trying to develop a nuclear arsenal, has pledged allegiance to the untested Kim Jong-un, who takes over the family dynasty that has ruled North Korea since it was founded after World War Two.
The source declined to be identified but has correctly predicted events in the past, telling Reuters about the North's first nuclear test in 2006 before it took place.
The comments are the first signal that North Korea is following a course that many analysts have anticipated -- it will be governed by a group of people for the first time since it was founded in 1948.
Both Kim Jong-il and his father Kim Il-sung were all-powerful, authoritarian rulers of the isolated state.
The situation in North Korea appeared stable after the military gave its backing to Kim Jong-un, the source said.
"It's very unlikely," the source said when asked about the possibility of a military coup. "The military has pledged allegiance to Kim Jong-un."
North Korea's collective leadership will include Kim Jong-un, his uncle and the military, the source said.
Jang Song-thaek, 65, brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il and the younger Kim's uncle, is seen as the power behind the throne along with his wife Kim Kyong-hui, Kim Jong-il's sister. So too is Ri Yong-ho, the rising star of the North's military and currently its most senior general.
The younger Kim, who is in his late 20s, has his own supporters but is not strong enough to consolidate power, analysts said.
"I know that he's been able to build a group of supporters around himself who are of his generation," said Koh Yu-hwan, president of the Korean Association of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
"So it is not entirely elders in their 70s, plus some like Jang in their 60s, who are backing him. These young backers will be emerging fairly soon."
Koh said the coterie was put in place by Kim Jong-il before he died. "The relative calm seen these few days shows it's been effective. If things were not running smoothly, then we'd have seen a longer period of 'rule by mummy', with Kim Jong-il being faked as still being alive."
He said the younger Kim would accept the set-up, for now. "Considering the tradition of strongarm rule by his father and grandfather, things can't be easy for him," he said.
"REGIME SURVIVAL"
Ralph Cossa, an authority on North Korea and president of the U.S. think tank Pacific Forum CSIS, said it made sense that the ruling group would stick together.
"All have a vested interest in regime survival," he said. "Their own personal safety and survival is inextricably tied to regime survival and Kim Jong-un is the manifestation of this. I think the regime will remain stable, at least in the near-term."
He added in a commentary that the new group may be inclined to reform, but stressed this was far from confirmed.
"Over the long term, there appears to be some hope, primarily emanating from Beijing, that Kim Jong-un will take North Korea down the path of Chinese-style reform, apparently based on the belief that Jang is or will be a 'reformer'."
"Who knows, this may be true. While this could relieve the suffering of the North Korean people over time, it will do little to promote the cause of denuclearization, however."
The high-level source also said North Korea test-fired a missile on Monday to warn the United States not to make any moves against it. Pyongyang however had no immediate plans for further tests, barring an escalation of tensions.
"With the missile test, (North) Korea wanted to deliver the message that they have the ability to protect themselves," the source said.
"But (North) Korea is unlikely to conduct a nuclear test in the near future unless provoked" by the United States and South Korea, the source said.
The unpredictable North's nuclear program has been a nagging source of tension for the international community.
Pyongyang carried out nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, and has quit six-party talks with South Korea, the United States, China, Japan and Russia on abandoning its nuclear program and returning to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The high-level source also said Beijing was only notified of Kim's death earlier on Monday, the same day North Korean state television broadcast the news. Kim died on Saturday.
A leading South Korean newspaper reported on Wednesday China learned of Kim's death soon after it occurred.
China has given no official comment or even hints suggesting it was told of Kim's death before the public announcement.
Beijing, the North's closest ally and biggest provider of aid, has pulled out the stops to support the younger Kim.
The government has invited him to visit and, in an unusual gesture, President Hu Jintao and Vice-President Xi Jinping also visited the hermit state's embassy in Beijing to express their condolences. Roads leading to the embassy were blocked.
Mainly, the prospect of instability on its northeastern border worries China and it sees the younger Kim and his coterie as the best prospect for keeping North Korea on an even keel.
North Korea has been pressed by China to denuclearize and is willing to do so on condition that North and South Korea, the United States and China sign an armistice replacing a 1953 ceasefire agreement, the source said.
The two Koreas have been divided for decades and remain technically at war since their 1950-53 conflict ended with an armistice but no peace agreement. The United States backed the South, while China supported the North in that conflict.
Pyongyang is also convinced there are U.S. nuclear weapons in South Korea and demands Washington pull them out, the source said.

[Unsound]

So... I still don't miss him. Anyone?

[saturn_656]

Quote:

North Korea will shift to collective rule from a strongman dictatorship after last week's death of Kim Jong-il, although his untested young son will be at the head of the ruling coterie, a source with close ties to Pyongyang and Beijing said.

Sounds like the son going to be something of a figurehead, with the military making all the decisions behind the scenes.