[Bruce_the_vii]

http://www.economist.com/node/21529049


Here’s a two page article in The Economist on the saving the Euro. It suggests if the Europeans act quickly and massively they might get most of their money back, and costs might be limited to 100’s of billions of Euros. If the euro zone breaks up the cost could be trillions. The German marc would soar and Germany would go through a recession, and so on. At this time Germany Chancellor Mrs. Merkel holds the world economy in her hands.

[martin14]

Wow, what a load of fiction.

The Greeks aren't leaving the Euro, they get too much benefit from it.
Kids in the streets may whine and burn the odd car, but the bankers know better.


Anyway, legally they can't; neither can they be kicked, there is no framework for either.


The only real solution is even closer fiscal integration, and to start stripping
powers from the National governments, so they can stop making assholes of themselves.

The Greeks defaulting will provide the vehicle for transferring their debt
into a new European Super Institution, along with the removal of the Greek
Economic Ministry, and the Greek Tax Office.

Gonna be fun.

[Bruce_the_vii]

Your post sound reasonable, especially the going to be fun part.

[Thanos]

Too bad the Germans are so timid now that they'll just sit back and take this crap without fighting back. They ought to kick all the PIIGS out of the EU and let them sink before they drag down the rest.

[andyt]

I don't see how what Martin describes can work unless Germany is given control of the whole EU. Nobody is going to go for that, but the Germans would be nuts to give away any more authority over their own affairs. Maybe Germany should just get over itself and start taking a true leadership role the way the US did - my way or the highway, and tell all the doubters who will bring up the Nazis to take a flying leap. It's the only way out I see.

[Thanos]

I can't see why a peaceful and democratic Germany that assumed a larger and more aggressive world leadership role wouldn't be of incredible benefit not just to Europe but to the entire world as well. God knows we all could gain from their sense of cultural organization and discipline. The world wars might have been a million years ago for all the relevance they have anymore to the problems of today. It might be the only thing left to the destructive economic chaos, financial irresponsibility, and greed-fueled rapaciousness that have become the defining characteristics of the dying American business model.

[Bruce_the_vii]

There's been a couple of very high profile resignation in Germany in the state financial regulation area to protest that Germany is asked to foot the bill. The Germans are dead set against it, although all the commentary I hear is this is a must do. The stakes are enormous.

[Brenda]

It's not just Germany. It's the EU.

[martin14]

Thanos wrote:

I can't see why a peaceful and democratic Germany...

ugh, I think my grandparents just rolled over in their graves, I'll
bet a lot of other grandparents just rolled over as well.

One of the major unbroadcast points of creating the EU was to keep the Germans
so meshed in European affairs that the flame and sword would never rise again.


You and Andy are still thinking in terms of a group of Nation-States.

To an extent it is still true, but each and every time the EU Governments meet,
the EU gets stronger and the Nations get weaker.


Closer fiscal controls are the natural end of the processes here.

And the only institution big enough to absorb Greek debt is the EU,
not Germany. In return, the EU will start running Greece, not the Greeks.
The Greek population won't have a choice; the other countries will accept it
because they know they're all severely fooked if they don't.
And then Ireland, Spain and Italy can wait their turn.


Let's not forget there is a group of people who are quietly very happy this is
happening.. It will open up new places for EU institutions to go.
The group that introduced the Euro are probably well pleased.


The Germans have been calling for tax harmonization of the EU countries;
of course, they want the high German levels of tax, not the lower rates
the others have.

So things like this will happen, it only a question of 'when'.. Looks like the
various EU governments will provide the 'how'.

[andyt]

Well that was always the dream, of modern Germans as well. But you know:

Quote:

TURNING and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

[andyt]

Oh, and:

Quote:

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

[Brenda]

They also want wages to be the same, so the companies will not move to low-wage countries like Poland. A lot of trucking companies went there, putting a lot of West European companies out of business. Also, seasonal work is done by cheap East Europeans, who are paid less than minimum.

[martin14]

Brenda wrote:

They also want wages to be the same, so the companies will not move to low-wage countries like Poland. A lot of trucking companies went there, putting a lot of West European companies out of business. Also, seasonal work is done by cheap East Europeans, who are paid less than minimum.

True, but it will never fly, the East countries.. and the Southern ones..
would lose two of the major competitive advantages they have:

lower wages and lower taxes.


In the current system, no chance..... just wait a while.

[Brenda]

martin14 wrote:

Brenda wrote:

They also want wages to be the same, so the companies will not move to low-wage countries like Poland. A lot of trucking companies went there, putting a lot of West European companies out of business. Also, seasonal work is done by cheap East Europeans, who are paid less than minimum.

True, but it will never fly, the East countries.. and the Southern ones..
would lose two of the major competitive advantages they have:

lower wages and lower taxes.


In the current system, no chance..... just wait a while.

And that is the exact reason why I do not favour the EU, especially not as an "Economical Union". It's bullshit. It's just another subsidy program to have the low-wage countries, that did nothing in the past few centuries to get out of their situation, subsidized by the other countries, which actually DID something.

There's no equality. Why the hell would you commit to an economic union with someone that does not bring in anything? What are the Western countries, sugar daddies? They only get screwed, but they are not enjoying it.

[martin14]

Spoken like a true Dutchie !