[Zipperfish]

The Mind-Bending Math of Probabilities

My latest blog post is up. Mostly interestd in readers' responses to this teaser.

$1:

Want another mind-bender? How about this:

$1:

Say you plan to roll a die 20 times. Which of these results is more likely: (a) 11111111111111111111, or (b) 66234441536125563152?

Marilyn vos Savant, who was famous for having the Guinness Book of World Record highest IQ in the 80s (before, apparently, they did away with the highest IQ record), answered:

$1:

In theory, the results are equally likely. Both specify the number that must appear each time the die is rolled. (For example, the 10th number in the first series must be a 1. The 10th number in the second series must be a 3.) Each number—1 through 6—has the same chance of landing faceup.

But let’s say you tossed a die out of my view and then said that the results were one of the above. Which series is more likely to be the one you threw? Because the roll has already occurred, the answer is (b). It’s far more likely that the roll produced a mixed bunch of numbers than a series of 1’s.

Is she right or wrong? Think about that. I'd be interested in your comments.

Comment here or on the comment site of the blog.

Cheers

Zip

[bootlegga]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

Thanks boots. Needs a better ending actually. It'll come to me. I'm working on putting a bunch of stories into a book right now. Problem is that I've got about seven decent sci-fi ones and seven decent horror ones. Put 'em together, you gotta book, but they don't really belong together. I'm ot he most prolific author ever. ha ha ha

I'll think of something.

Cheers

For e-books it doesn't matter.

Bundle the seven horror stories together into one collection and sell it for $2.99 - then do the same for the seven sci-fi stories together. Then, sell each individually for $.99 (maybe make a couple free to hook readers in) and soon you'll be making some bank.

Maybe not Stephen King money, but beer money (even with your gargantuan thirst for beer).

My one book has made me almost $300 in four months so far - with very little investment in advertising (I think about $20 on Facebook and $20 on a couple of blogs). Once I release a couple short stories in the very near future, I expect to make even more.

All it would take to start is the investment of $100 or so for a couple cover images - then you're good to go. If you know a graphic artist, then they could probably do them for you even cheaper. This is the cover of a writer friend's book - he got it done by a graphic designer he knows for $25 (I'm paying $75 for my latest cover);

http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/161686

Once you start to get sales, you can find cover images for each short story and then really have a big footprint on the interwebs. To promote yourself, go to Ralan or Duotrope and submit some of your stories there.

The guys who make the most in e-books are the guys with the biggest footprint - and with 14 short stories and 2 collections, you'll have a very significant footprint. Furthermore, by selling them for dirt cheap, people will buy them more often than full length books like mine that cost $4.99. That's because e-book reader owners tend to buy more books;

http://mhpbooks.com/pew-study-finds-ebo ... dominates/

[Zipperfish]

bootlegga bootlegga:

For e-books it doesn't matter.

Bundle the seven horror stories together into one collection and sell it for $2.99 - then do the same for the seven sci-fi stories together. Then, sell each individually for $.99 (maybe make a couple free to hook readers in) and soon you'll be making some bank.

Maybe not Stephen King money, but beer money (even with your gargantuan thirst for beer).

My one book has made me almost $300 in four months so far - with very little investment in advertising (I think about $20 on Facebook and $20 on a couple of blogs). Once I release a couple short stories in the very near future, I expect to make even more.

All it would take to start is the investment of $100 or so for a couple cover images - then you're good to go. If you know a graphic artist, then they could probably do them for you even cheaper. This is the cover of a writer friend's book - he got it done by a graphic designer he knows for $25 (I'm paying $75 for my latest cover);

http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/161686

Once you start to get sales, you can find cover images for each short story and then really have a big footprint on the interwebs. To promote yourself, go to Ralan or Duotrope and submit some of your stories there.

The guys who make the most in e-books are the guys with the biggest footprint - and with 14 short stories and 2 collections, you'll have a very significant footprint. Furthermore, by selling them for dirt cheap, people will buy them more often than full length books like mine that cost $4.99. That's because e-book reader owners tend to buy more books;

http://mhpbooks.com/pew-study-finds-ebo ... dominates/

That's great advice boots. I'll put together two collections, sell the rest as short stories at $0.99 and offer a couple of freebies.

Actually I guess I can get your book now too. Couldn't get it in Afghanistan for some reason.

I may need a line edit for a couple of stories. Most are previously published, so they've already been professionally edited. But a couple are new.

I'll offer up a trade to you or Gunny (or any other writers out there). I've got about 20000 words total that need editing--just spelling and grammar, that's all. I'll offer the same service in return. Let me know.

And, yes, my spelling in manuscripts is better than on CKA. ha ha ha

[Regina]

Definitely not a problem with your spelling.....it's you typing skill!! :lol"

[bootlegga]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

bootlegga bootlegga:

For e-books it doesn't matter.

Bundle the seven horror stories together into one collection and sell it for $2.99 - then do the same for the seven sci-fi stories together. Then, sell each individually for $.99 (maybe make a couple free to hook readers in) and soon you'll be making some bank.

Maybe not Stephen King money, but beer money (even with your gargantuan thirst for beer).

My one book has made me almost $300 in four months so far - with very little investment in advertising (I think about $20 on Facebook and $20 on a couple of blogs). Once I release a couple short stories in the very near future, I expect to make even more.

All it would take to start is the investment of $100 or so for a couple cover images - then you're good to go. If you know a graphic artist, then they could probably do them for you even cheaper. This is the cover of a writer friend's book - he got it done by a graphic designer he knows for $25 (I'm paying $75 for my latest cover);

http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/161686

Once you start to get sales, you can find cover images for each short story and then really have a big footprint on the interwebs. To promote yourself, go to Ralan or Duotrope and submit some of your stories there.

The guys who make the most in e-books are the guys with the biggest footprint - and with 14 short stories and 2 collections, you'll have a very significant footprint. Furthermore, by selling them for dirt cheap, people will buy them more often than full length books like mine that cost $4.99. That's because e-book reader owners tend to buy more books;

http://mhpbooks.com/pew-study-finds-ebo ... dominates/

That's great advice boots. I'll put together two collections, sell the rest as short stories at $0.99 and offer a couple of freebies.

Actually I guess I can get your book now too. Couldn't get it in Afghanistan for some reason.

I may need a line edit for a couple of stories. Most are previously published, so they've already been professionally edited. But a couple are new.

I'll offer up a trade to you or Gunny (or any other writers out there). I've got about 20000 words total that need editing--just spelling and grammar, that's all. I'll offer the same service in return. Let me know.

And, yes, my spelling in manuscripts is better than on CKA. ha ha ha

Sure, I'm willing to take you up on that trade - but I'll be super busy over the next few weeks so I can't do it anytime soon. My best guess would be after Halloween.

I've also been fooling around on KDP (Amazon's ebook publishing system) and you don't even need a cover for short stories. I uploaded a couple to see if Kindle Select works or not (my opinion is it's so-so), but I let Amazon put a stock cover (green/black box with the title and author name on it) on them and they are still selling fairly good. I say design something similar yourself with Photoshop or InDesign and only worry about fancy covers for your collections.

I forgot to mention pricing/royalties - I don't know if you've played around in Smashwords or KDP yet, but $2.99 and up gets you 70% royalties ($2.10) per sale, while under $2.99 gets you only 35%, which equates to 34 cents on a 99 cent title. However, cheap ebooks tend to sell better because they are cheap.

I'd also make sure that you announce it on your blog (and Twitter/Facebook page) if you have either one. If you don't have either, I'd suggest setting one up and talking about both on your blog. If you want marketing tips, you can either check out my blog or send me a PM and I'll forward you some tips I sent to Gunnair about book marketing. Some of it may work for you, or it may not, but the advice is still free.

[Zipperfish]

bootlegga bootlegga:

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

bootlegga bootlegga:

For e-books it doesn't matter.

Bundle the seven horror stories together into one collection and sell it for $2.99 - then do the same for the seven sci-fi stories together. Then, sell each individually for $.99 (maybe make a couple free to hook readers in) and soon you'll be making some bank.

Maybe not Stephen King money, but beer money (even with your gargantuan thirst for beer).

My one book has made me almost $300 in four months so far - with very little investment in advertising (I think about $20 on Facebook and $20 on a couple of blogs). Once I release a couple short stories in the very near future, I expect to make even more.

All it would take to start is the investment of $100 or so for a couple cover images - then you're good to go. If you know a graphic artist, then they could probably do them for you even cheaper. This is the cover of a writer friend's book - he got it done by a graphic designer he knows for $25 (I'm paying $75 for my latest cover);

http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/161686

Once you start to get sales, you can find cover images for each short story and then really have a big footprint on the interwebs. To promote yourself, go to Ralan or Duotrope and submit some of your stories there.

The guys who make the most in e-books are the guys with the biggest footprint - and with 14 short stories and 2 collections, you'll have a very significant footprint. Furthermore, by selling them for dirt cheap, people will buy them more often than full length books like mine that cost $4.99. That's because e-book reader owners tend to buy more books;

http://mhpbooks.com/pew-study-finds-ebo ... dominates/

That's great advice boots. I'll put together two collections, sell the rest as short stories at $0.99 and offer a couple of freebies.

Actually I guess I can get your book now too. Couldn't get it in Afghanistan for some reason.

I may need a line edit for a couple of stories. Most are previously published, so they've already been professionally edited. But a couple are new.

I'll offer up a trade to you or Gunny (or any other writers out there). I've got about 20000 words total that need editing--just spelling and grammar, that's all. I'll offer the same service in return. Let me know.

And, yes, my spelling in manuscripts is better than on CKA. ha ha ha

Sure, I'm willing to take you up on that trade - but I'll be super busy over the next few weeks so I can't do it anytime soon. My best guess would be after Halloween.

I've also been fooling around on KDP (Amazon's ebook publishing system) and you don't even need a cover for short stories. I uploaded a couple to see if Kindle Select works or not (my opinion is it's so-so), but I let Amazon put a stock cover (green/black box with the title and author name on it) on them and they are still selling fairly good. I say design something similar yourself with Photoshop or InDesign and only worry about fancy covers for your collections.

I forgot to mention pricing/royalties - I don't know if you've played around in Smashwords or KDP yet, but $2.99 and up gets you 70% royalties ($2.10) per sale, while under $2.99 gets you only 35%, which equates to 34 cents on a 99 cent title. However, cheap ebooks tend to sell better because they are cheap.

I'd also make sure that you announce it on your blog (and Twitter/Facebook page) if you have either one. If you don't have either, I'd suggest setting one up and talking about both on your blog. If you want marketing tips, you can either check out my blog or send me a PM and I'll forward you some tips I sent to Gunnair about book marketing. Some of it may work for you, or it may not, but the advice is still free.

All right, I'll probably get someone else to look at these for me. But the offer stands, at least from my end, if you ever want a line edit.

Thanks again for the great advice. I will be hitting you up for more. Right now it's on to formatting and looking at art options. Teh style guie is almost 200 pages! Sheesh. Luckily I'm an MS Word guru, so I should be able to manage it fairly quickly.

[bootlegga]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

All right, I'll probably get someone else to look at these for me. But the offer stands, at least from my end, if you ever want a line edit.

Thanks again for the great advice. I will be hitting you up for more. Right now it's on to formatting and looking at art options. Teh style guie is almost 200 pages! Sheesh. Luckily I'm an MS Word guru, so I should be able to manage it fairly quickly.

Formatting is pretty easy - remove all tabs and use the ruler function instead. No more than four returns in a row - use page breaks instead. That's pretty much it - unless you use tables and charts and so on, which I doubt. Amazon's KDP is even easier - upload any word doc and it formats it for you automatically.

[Zipperfish]

Dragging my blog back from the dead.

The afghanistan Hangover

[Strutz]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

Dragging my blog back from the dead.

The afghanistan Hangover

Thanks Zip! A good read. As were your other blog entries.

It's nice to have you back on home soil.

Hang onto those dreams man.

[Zipperfish]

Strutz Strutz:

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

Dragging my blog back from the dead.

The afghanistan Hangover

Thanks Zip! A good read. As were your other blog entries.

It's nice to have you back on home soil.

Hang onto those dreams man.

Thanks, hun--you're the greatest!

[Zipperfish]

A little darker today for some reason.

Mindfingers: People Don't Change

[Strutz]

Good one Zip!

[Zipperfish]

$1:

So as I’m sitting here watching my socks dry on the radiator I thought I’d grab the paddles, yell “Clear” and try to bring this damn blog back from the dead.

Mindfingers: Ruminating on the Black Plague While Washing Me Socks

[Zipperfish]

The latest blog entry. Self explanatory.

Six Things You Didn't Know About Octopuses

[bootlegga]

Sorry, any blog post on Octopodes without an honorary mention of Dr. Octopus are a fail!

P.S. I knew five of the six things, so there!