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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:26 pm
 


originally titled "The Inevitable Upset of Bernie Sanders", renamed due to general election discussion.

The Inevitable Upset of Bernie Sanders
The Outcomes for the American Left in 2016
(a biased opinion piece) by Public_Domain

As of this posting, I'm reading a poll fresh from the presses that has Sanders leading 14% over Clinton in New Hampshire. We've gone from the start of 2015 where the coronation of Hillary Clinton was considered basically inevitable, to the start of 2016 where it's finally being admitted that her parade route is being disrupted. The contest had been lined up for her, the boilerplate stepping-stone candidates each being expected to be easy victories for Clinton, but one easy target turned out to be part of the veritable bedrock of the progressive movement.

Bernie entered this race with very little pomp and circumstance, immediately becoming a joke and subsequently getting completely shut out of the media for months. His hair, or whatever, blah blah blah, he's crazy, he's a crackpot, he's a commie. Now here's 5 Ways Hillary is Just Like You™, and Trump Trump Trump. He drew massive crowd in the summer and fall, and tackled the crippling issue of name recognition. And now, a few weeks before the primaries, Bernie Sanders is definitely known, with not much help from general political news sources, and is set to make Hillary little more than just another perennial candidate. Massive crowds, enormous cult following online (not bad for a 74 year old), and every inch of excited optimistic political talk this election dripping Bernie's stump speech.

And thus we find ourselves being able to predict why no matter what, for the American left at least, 2016 will be interesting. An shocking upset is guaranteed at this point, the only question is whom gets to enjoy it. With every ounce of momentum, energy, commitment, and most importantly, narrative, all behind him at this point, the prospects of the nomination going to Hillary Clinton would cause a collapse in faith in American democracy. Voter turnout would plummet. The youth would finally consider their faith in the system appropriately dashed, and would likely exit politics for the next 20 years. The only 18 year olds voting would be voting for Trump.

Hillary Clinton has an extremely negative momentum. The more you hear about her, the more you step away. She's tarnishing her own image as a manipulative and dodgy propagandist again, mimicking the dirty underhandedness she was famous for laying on Obama in 2008. She's become the villain of the American left, a symbol for what has been around for too long and must go. The narrative right now is so repeatable and rehearsed that there's no escape. Like all narratives, it matters little how true it really is, all that matters is that it is universally believed. Things the media repeats over and over but may be unverifiable. Here's what is believed this time around:

Hillary:
1. is corrupt, is a manipulative liar, and panders to her audience.
2. is using friends in establishment positions to manipulate the election in her favour.
3. feels entitled to the presidency and will use fear (of Sanders, Trump) to gin up support.

Bernie:
1. is authentic, unpolished, and "won't take it anymore". Consistent messages noticeable in his extensive history.
2. is running a campaign on donations from people living cheque-to-cheque and has refused Big Money.
3. is widely considered ideal, but has to overcome the assumption that he's unelectable.

Are the accusations against Hillary true? Doesn't matter. You don't recover from corruption accusations. In this day and age when the establishment and "experience" are considered cursewords, she has come out barking like a trucker. There is no rehabilitation for Clinton now, hence the seemingly purposeful obstruction of her opponents. But like the landline the polls rely on, the neoliberal is dead, long live the progressive.

The split has become clear in the American left. The establishment and its agents dependably endorse the establishment. The rest of the left is quickly finding themselves with the opportunity to deal an unexpected deathblow to the status quo, a chance at a revolution of sorts. A man channeling a Haymarket rioter is in the semi-finals of American politics. People joked someone black getting the office, but that's been seriously expected for decades. Same with a woman. Electing either barely passes for the milestones they're considered to be though, by the point they usually are made, because at that point the system is flush with this sort of expectation. Was it a surprise when Obama won? Was it? No. It was expected. Hillary was expected. Honestly that's why the milestone she hopes to mark her presidency is expendable. It was expected, so it might as well have already occurred. We have already progressed to the point where we will vote for a woman or a "minority". That very specific portion of social justice is pretty well solved and "milestones" at this point are very underwhelming.

But Bernie, Bernie was not expected. Absolutely no one with any serious political clout could predict that there'd be an American election cycle where the person with the most positive momentum is an outspoken "democratic socialist" with no 'if's 'and's or 'but's to hear about his plan for class war. A year ago, the idea of an open socialist being the Democratic nominee was so unthinkable that it was unspoken. Now they have a candidate so significant that others are bending their own words around his, playing their ideology off his, rewording themselves, or flat-out stealing his lines. He's moved the goalposts to the left, a direction the Democrats almost never go anymore.

And Americans love the hell out of him. Politicians simply don't reach Bernie-levels of trust and favourability, not without stuffing ballot boxes at least. All week, Bernie has had just shocking numbers with regards to people's personal opinion of him. Truly as effective a populist as one could ever get, he's managed to convince the masses that he cares about their needs and issues.

If America is to have a vibrant and excited democratic society, one that somehow can convince the youth to regularly participate, it needs to elect Bernie.

P.S.: MoveOn endorsed Bernie Sanders today after receiving over 340K votes, winning with 79%. He needed 2/3rds (66.67%) of the vote, and managed instead to get almost 4/5ths. It's a hell of an endorsement. Obama won it with only 70% in 2008, and no one won it in 2004.


Last edited by Public_Domain on Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:46 pm
 


Do I think Bernie is better than Hillary. Hell yes. Do I think Bernie will be good for America ... NO!. All his talking points do sound dam good till you start questioning how the things he endorses will get paid for. Then you realize it's via increased taxes on everyone.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:53 pm
 


The establishment will ensure Queen Hillary steals the nomination.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:55 pm
 


stratos wrote:
Do I think Bernie is better than Hillary. Hell yes. Do I think Bernie will be good for America ... NO!. All his talking points do sound dam good till you start questioning how the things he endorses will get paid for. Then you realize it's via increased taxes on everyone.
Mostly people over $250,000, but yeah, he's admitted that "everyone" will see at least a dollar in increased taxes.

Pretty rare to see a politician run on taxes. It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off, :)


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:11 pm
 


BRAH wrote:
The establishment will ensure Queen Hillary steals the nomination.


This.

Our young'un gonna get schooled in how the world works.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:21 pm
 


Hillary was the establishment candidate/favourite in 2008 and we all know what happened next. Don't count Sanders out yet. The same reasons Democratic primary voters didn't vote for clinton in 2008 are still there.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:23 pm
 


xerxes wrote:
Hillary was the establishment candidate/favourite in 2008 and we all know what happened next. Don't count Sanders out yet. The same reasons Democratic primary voters didn't vote for clinton in 2008 are still there.


With some more reasons popping up sense then.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:34 pm
 


If the Democrats want to win, they'd be damn idiots to go with the person dropping in the polls week after week... I don't like that about half of the superdelegates all went with Clinton before 2015 was even over. This whole coronation business is going to make her the most hated woman in America, no matter the results of the primaries...


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:37 pm
 


martin14 wrote:
BRAH wrote:
The establishment will ensure Queen Hillary steals the nomination.


This.

Our young'un gonna get schooled in how the world works.

I have a passing familiarity with the world, but you're right, there's a lot of time left for everything to turn to fuck


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:55 pm
 


Hillary Clinton is like pop music. She's bland and inoffensive and has no controversial opinions. She tries to be good for everyone but she's actually good for nobody.

RationalWiki has put Hillary in the "Centrist Stupidity" category for a reason.
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Category:Centrist_stupidity


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:22 pm
 


stratos wrote:
Do I think Bernie is better than Hillary. Hell yes. Do I think Bernie will be good for America ... NO!. All his talking points do sound dam good till you start questioning how the things he endorses will get paid for. Then you realize it's via increased taxes on everyone.


For all Americans wanting a shake up of the system, Sanders is the best choice. His ideas of shaking up the system are not the ideas of Nut Jobs, like seen in the Republican candidates.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:25 pm
 


sandorski wrote:
stratos wrote:
Do I think Bernie is better than Hillary. Hell yes. Do I think Bernie will be good for America ... NO!. All his talking points do sound dam good till you start questioning how the things he endorses will get paid for. Then you realize it's via increased taxes on everyone.


For all Americans wanting a shake up of the system, Sanders is the best choice. His ideas of shaking up the system are not the ideas of Nut Jobs, like seen in the Republican candidates.


Have you given any consideration to the fucking cost of everything that he wants to make "free"? 8O

It's like my free Ontario health care that costs me over $2400/year.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:37 pm
 


2Cdo wrote:
Have you given any consideration to the fucking cost of everything that he wants to make "free"? 8O
He hasn't released his full official tax plan yet (he says he will before Iowa) but it will almost certainly look like this, based on the tax plan he proposed in 2012.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:48 pm
 


stratos wrote:
Do I think Bernie is better than Hillary. Hell yes. Do I think Bernie will be good for America ... NO!. All his talking points do sound dam good till you start questioning how the things he endorses will get paid for. Then you realize it's via increased taxes on everyone.

If we lived in a sane world then the tax burden would be on the upper class.
In the current system, the tax burden is on the middle class and the upper class has become a sort of royal aristocracy.

I don't agree with the people who say "business owners create wealth". The workers create wealth. Every country in existence was built by the working class. The workers create wealth and prosperity.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 6:28 pm
 


2Cdo wrote:
sandorski wrote:
stratos wrote:
Do I think Bernie is better than Hillary. Hell yes. Do I think Bernie will be good for America ... NO!. All his talking points do sound dam good till you start questioning how the things he endorses will get paid for. Then you realize it's via increased taxes on everyone.


For all Americans wanting a shake up of the system, Sanders is the best choice. His ideas of shaking up the system are not the ideas of Nut Jobs, like seen in the Republican candidates.


Have you given any consideration to the fucking cost of everything that he wants to make "free"? 8O

It's like my free Ontario health care that costs me over $2400/year.


That Healthcare is relatively cheap for what you get.


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