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PostPosted: Mon Apr 06, 2009 10:16 am
 


For your interest:
http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf
Natural History wrote:
Polls show that fewer than 60 percent of Americans think people are responsible for global warming, and fewer than 50 percent think scientists agree on that point. But according to Peter T. Doran of the University of Illinois at Chicago and his former graduate student Maggie Kendall Zimmerman, citizens are not on the same wavelength as scientists.

In an online survey, the two researchers invited 10,257 Earth scientists to anonymously answer the question “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?” In all, 3,146 scientists replied, and 85 percent of them answered in the affirmative. (Fewer than 5 percent said no, the rest opting for “I’m not sure.”) Among well-published climate experts, more than 97 percent said yes, a near consensus of those in the know. Agreement with the logical precursor—that the globe is warming—was also overwhelming.

The replies being voluntary, the survey sample wasn’t truly random, but anonymity should have alleviated skew toward believers or skeptics. What’s more, any bias should apply equally to scientists and laypeople, and is contradicted by the large gap between the two. Doran and Zimmerman recommend a two-part cure: scientists need to better disseminate their views, and the media need to report the scientific consensus accurately, despite the noble impulse to present both sides of a story. (Eos)


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