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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:22 am
 


martin14 wrote:
xerxes wrote:
Meanwhile, in Republican cheating:


I see, computers have already been programmed with the evil Republican subroutine.

Excellent. :lol:

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:20 am
 


The U.S. congressional race that could signal a national shift

Quote:
McGrath is a star candidate for the Democrats: a U.S. marine fighter pilot who flew 89 combat missions in Afghanistan and Iraq before retiring with the rank of lieutenant-colonel. But this is a new mission. She is trying to win in a district that Donald Trump took by 16 percentage points two years ago, in a state where all but two of the 120 counties voted Republican red.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:22 am
 


We'll see.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:06 pm
 






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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:54 am
 


Missouri going (R)ed.

Having a 'public' and 'private' policy, ala Hitlery, strikes again.







Robair wrote:
[video]



You are simply deluded if you think coal country will vote

"We will destroy your jobs" - Hldebeast and the Democrats

If they have been doing any better at all, thank Trump for that.


Last edited by martin14 on Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:56 am
 


martin14 wrote:
Missouri going (R)ed.

Having a 'public' and 'private' policy, ala Hitlery, strikes again.




He has a Fallout 4 minuteman flag. Cool.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:39 am
 


The November election is starting to look like a series of net losses for the Democrats.

Various media (left and right) say there's no chance for them to gain in the Senate and just the sense of the polls so far concedes that the Dems should expect to lose three to five Senate seats.

In the House the Dems were originally confident of a 'blue wave' but now it's also looking like they're either going to hold on to what they have or else lose seats. No one is seriously projecting gains for the Donks in the House.

Across the country at the state level the Democrats have lost some 1200 elected seats since 2008 and no one...no one...is expecting that trend to end. As many as sixteen states are currently competitive and the expectation is that at least half will swing to the Republicans regardless of what happens in Congress.

Most all of the pollsters comments are linking the behavior of the Democrats in the Kavanaugh hearings to the down-ballot effect.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:50 am
 


Here's a pretty damned good analysis of current ACTUAL trends (not polls):

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1052 ... 95488.html

Quote:
1) Just so you all understand what I do, for the one-millionth time, I don't do polls.

Yes, from time to time I will post one for those of you who do. But we're WAY past polls now because we have actual NUMBERS.

2) A poll is a sample of opinions that cost nothing to give.

3) For example, before a horse race you can poll everyone---including jockeys (who may or may not know something), owners, bettors, whomever. But it's just an opinion.

Moreover, you have to know that in a political poll you have the correct sample (most absolutely do not).

4) The sample anymore is almost impossible to get, and certainly you cannot get it by phone only and you cannot get it by "self-reporting." So far, only @PPDNews and Trafalgar have a track record of really getting "likely" voters in the proper sample sizes.

5) I don't do polls.

6) I examine ballot REQUESTS and ballot RETURNS BY PARTY. (In 2016, party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew---very, very few party switchers, but those that were, by 2:1, went from Dem to Republican.

7) But then you need to compare the current numbers to something. The rule of thumb is you never compare a mid-term with a presidential election because the turnout for the latter is supposed to be so much higher.

Guess what I did?

I compared it anyway, just out of intuition.

8) So, in four sample states where we are already seeing large #s of ballot requests---AZ, FL, OH, and IA---and which have very different voting patterns, I have found that so far (and anything can change---but usually the patterns hold) the Republicans are exceeding their #s

8) contd . . . from 2016, a Presidential Election. This is not supposed to happen.

9) Moreover, with the help of Freepers "Ravi" and "SpeedyInTexas" and "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" and others, I have found that DemoKKKrats are falling behind their 2016 performance

10) One would not be surprised that Ds are lagging behind 2016, a presidential election year. But it IS surprising that Rs are not only running ahead of 2014 (a midterm) but also 2016.

11) Just in case there was some weird state-wide tilt to these numbers, we also . . . .

11) contd . . . looked at four key FL counties, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Lee, and Broward, and in all four counties (!!) even the blue ones, Ds are underperforming 2016 and Rs are overperforming.

12) Same is true in IA absentees. Ds always lead in total absentees in IA.

12) contd. But again, they are behind the 2016 election---and in 2016 Ds had fallen behind their 2012 #s in IA! But Rs are up from 2016.

13) So we looked at a key IA district that no one is watching, IA2 that everyone just assumed the D incumbent will win. And lo and behold . .

13) contd. . .Same pattern. Rs are up 7% in this district, D is down 2.6%. This is over 5,000 votes shifted already (plus Is are way down, indicating people are "picking sides").

In a district where the D won by 28,000, and where Ds ALWAYS lead in absentees, to be already down

13) contd . . . 5,000 votes before absentee voting is even over, and before the big guns that Rs bring on election day, well, if I was that D I'd be worried.

14) We did something different in Montgomery Co., OH--a key bellwether county. In 2016 "The Accountant" figured out

14) contd . . . how to allocate the "indies" by looking at a 20 year voting history of their addresses. It proved uncanny in its accuracy. We correctly projected Trump to win a county no R had won in 20 years.

15) That same county's absentees are coming in, we can count them .

16) And those absentees, so far, are showing EXACTLY the same pattern as 2016 with, once again, the Rs performing a little better this time around.

17) There are similar #s coming in for absentees in AZ, where the Republicans are out to a 7% lead, despite having only . . .

17) contd. . . a registration advantage of about 140,000. Once again, a pattern. Rs overperforming, Ds underperforming.

18) Then finally you have to take into account voter registration and voter registration trends, where in 8/10 battleground states since 2016 Rs have made
net gains. They don't always lead in registration (as in FL, for example, where they trail) but trends are important. They tell you which way the #s are going.

19) In OH, after doing the "indie" voter math, the Rs have a solid registration lead of 300,000 after all but 2k indies

19) contd . . . are accounted for.

WHERE DO YOU THINK THIS SHOWS UP WITH "POLLSTERS?" It won't. None of them did this work.

20) So, before you send me "What about this guy?" or "What about this poll?" I don't know and I don't care. Unless someone is getting different math than me on absentee request #S and absentee return #s it's irrelevant.

21) They are asking people in the stands asking their opinion of who will win.

I'm at each turn, giving you photographic evidence of where the horses are.

Now, that STILL doesn't mean I'm always right. Horses fall. Some horses really come on at the end.

But . . .

22) here is another reality the "pollsters" and pundits either miss or flat out ignore:

LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY VOTED. We just haven't counted them yet, but we can know if they were Ds or Rs!!

23) In FL for example some 400,000 absentee ballots went out. So all the campaigning from here on out, and anything that happens that might change a vote . . .

WON'T CHANGE THOSE VOTES.

24) And what do you think is the single biggest issue motivating people in the last 3 weeks?

24) If you said Justice Kavanaugh, you'd be right. Not jobs, not health care, not immigration. That event was the most "motivating" voter event of the last 10 years.

25) So let me now ask you this: if 5,000 more Iowans in a single district requested absentee ballots at this time

25) contd and they were all Republicans, what do you think they'd be voting on?

26) And let me put it this way: if 50,000 (or whatever the number) of FL ballots have already been RETURNED, what was the biggest issue when those people were in the middle of voting?

27) And since we know that the Republicans have about a 7% lead in those RETURNED ballots, would it not be safe to assume that they were all voting on issues rated to Justice K? I think so.

28) Those are touchdowns already scored. Can't take them off the board.

29) So now in all these areas I've mentioned, the Ds have LESS TIME and a much smaller voter pool from which to now recover that 7% lead, or those 5,000 IA votes.

See how this works?

30) Finally, my assumption--could be wrong---is that a river carries all boats the same way.

31) I have asked a historical genius on this kind of data, "Can you think of ANY time in American electoral history where one party gained four to six senate seats and lost the House." None.

32) Therefore, when I see data---not polls, but ballots---ALL going the same way

32) contd . . . they I don't care what polls or "experts" say. The voters are

SAYING SOMETHING DIFFERENT.

And this was exactly how I knew Trump would win very early in the 2016 election.
The VOTES were talking.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:25 pm
 


POV from the Right.

Blue Wave/Red Wave: what happens in either case.



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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:30 am
 


xerxes wrote:
Meanwhile, in Republican cheating:

Quote:
ATLANTA — Marsha Appling-Nunez was showing the college students she teaches how to check online if they’re registered to vote when she made a troubling discovery. Despite being an active Georgia voter who had cast ballots in recent elections, she was no longer registered.

“I was kind of shocked,” said Appling-Nunez, who moved from one Atlanta suburb to another in May and believed she had successfully changed her address on the voter rolls.

“I’ve always voted. I try to not miss any elections, including local ones,” Appling-Nunez said.

She tried re-registering, but with about one month left before a November election that will decide a governor’s race and some competitive U.S. House races, Appling-Nunez’s application is one of over 53,000 sitting on hold with Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp’s office. And unlike Appling-Nunez, many people on that list — which is predominantly black, according to an analysis by The Associated Press — may not even know their voter registration has been held up.

Tuesday is Georgia’s deadline to register and be eligible to vote in the November General Election.

Kemp, who’s also the Republican candidate for governor, is in charge of elections and voter registration in Georgia.

His Democratic opponent, former state Rep. Stacey Abrams, and voting rights advocacy groups charge that Kemp is systematically using his office to suppress votes and tilt the election, and that his policies disproportionately affect black and minority voters.

Kemp denies it vehemently.

But through a process that Kemp calls voter roll maintenance and his opponents call voter roll purges, Kemp’s office has cancelled over 1.4 million voter registrations since 2012. Nearly 670,000 registrations were cancelled in 2017 alone.

In a recent television appearance on Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show With Trevor Noah” Abrams called Kemp “a remarkable architect of voter suppression.” That’s become a rallying cry for Democrats in the governor’s race, which recent public polling shows in a statistical dead heat.

Kemp, meanwhile, says Abrams and allied liberal activists are twisting his record of guarding Georgia elections against voter fraud.

His campaign spokesman Ryan Mahoney said in a statement that because of Kemp, “it has never been easier to vote in our state” and pointed to a new online voter registration system and a student engagement program implemented under his tenure.

“Kemp is fighting to protect the integrity of our elections and ensure that only legal citizens cast a ballot,” Mahoney said.

Two main policies overseen by Kemp have drawn criticism and legal challenges: Georgia’s “exact match” registration verification process and the mass cancellation of inactive voter registrations.

According to records obtained from Kemp’s office through a public records request, Appling-Nunez’s application —like many of the 53,000 registrations on hold with Kemp’s office — was flagged because it ran afoul of the state’s “exact match” verification process.

Under the policy, information on voter applications must precisely match information on file with the Georgia Department of Driver Services or the Social Security Administration. Election officials can place non-matching applications on hold.

An application could be held because of an entry error or a dropped hyphen in a last name, for example.

Appling-Nunez says she never saw any notice from Kemp’s office indicating a problem with her application.

An analysis of the records obtained by The Associated Press reveals racial disparity in the process. Georgia’s population is approximately 32 percent black, according to the U.S. Census, but the list of voter registrations on hold with Kemp’s office is nearly 70 percent black.

Kemp’s office blamed that disparity on the New Georgia Project, a voter registration group founded by Abrams in 2013.

Kemp accuses the organization of being sloppy in registering voters, and says they submitted inadequate forms for a batch of applicants that was predominantly black. His office has said the New Georgia Project used primarily paper forms and “did not adequately train canvassers to ensure legible, complete forms ....”

His office says “the law applies equally across all demographics,” but these numbers became skewed by “the higher usage of one method of registration among one particular demographic group.”

Voters whose applications are frozen in “pending” status have 26 months to fix any issues before their application is canceled, and can still cast a provisional ballot.

But critics say the system has a high error rate and decry the racial disparity that it produces.

“We’ve shown that this process disproportionately prevents minority applicants from getting on the voter registration rolls,” Julie Houk, special counsel for the Washington based Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, said in an interview. With that in mind, she called it “kind of astounding” that Georgia legislators wrote it into state law in 2017.

Houk’s group wrote to Kemp in July threatening legal action if “exact match” wasn’t ended.

Kemp’s aggressive maintenance of the voter list has also garnered the threat of legal action.

His office says that they simply “conduct regular list maintenance of the voter rolls to ensure election integrity” as required by federal and state law. “All of the affected records were inactive as a result of returned mail, National Change of Address, and ‘no contact’ list maintenance procedures,” it said.

Kemp dismissed and derided the legal threat targeting the “exact match” policy, issuing a statement saying that with Election Day coming up, “it’s high time for another frivolous lawsuit from liberal activist groups.”

His office said that since January 2014, elections officials have processed over 6.4 million voter registrations and less than 1 percent remain in pending status.

State Rep. Barry Fleming, who authored the state law enabling “exact match,” said in a statement that it’s authorized under federal law, and courts have upheld a similar law in Florida.

But Appling-Nunez said it’s important for every Georgian’s vote, including hers, to be counted in November.

“If you don’t like what’s happening you either have to vote to change it or get out there and change it yourself,” she said. “A life of politics is not for me so I have to support those who are fighting the good fight.”


https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/voting-rights-become-a-flashpoint-in-georgia-governors-race/2018/10/09/86b41c4e-cbd1-11e8-ad0a-0e01efba3cc1_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c304a6cf1e72&wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1

And in Indiana:
Quote:
A team of database experts, statisticians, lawyers and investigators working with the Palast Investigative Fund discovered — and Indiana now admits — that these thousands of voters were cancelled in violation of a June 2018 federal court order that barred the state from using the notorious Interstate Crosscheck purge list sent to state officials by Kris Kobach, Secretary of State of Kansas.

The court order stemmed from a suit by the NAACP and League of Woman Voters against a 2017 Indiana law ordering counties to remove voters if they appear on Kobach’s list which purports to identify voters who have left the state. The NAACP and League cited the Palast team’s evidence in our 2016 Rolling Stone article showing that Crosscheck is overwhelmingly wrong in identifying voters who have moved — and extremely racist in operation.

Altogether, Indiana cancelled the registrations of a mind-boggling 469,000 voters, the majority using suspect methods.

https://www.gregpalast.com/indiana-caught-illegally-purging-20000-voters-are-you-one/



Georgia Republicans have been especially aggressive in Black voter suppression this election cycle, since the Democrat candidate is Black. In one majority black district the state suddenly shut down 5 of 7 polling stations without warning, leaving only the two most remote stations open. In another case, state authorities descended on a group of Black Seniors at a publicly funded senior’s home who had organized a bus to take them to advance polling station. Claiming that they were responding to an anonymous tip and citing some new interpretation of policy that prohibits “political activity” in publicly funded facilities, the seniors were prevented from boarding the bus and voting that day.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:08 am
 


I'm hearing the Dems are not happy about Trump and now the Republicans in general using the M word - Mobs.

I can see why. This new campaign ad resonates.



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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:29 am
 


Midterm Meddling: Democrats Surge on Facebook After Algorithm Changes


Quote:
Democrat candidates for the Senate and House are vastly outpacing their Republican opponents on Facebook and Facebook-owned Instagram, according to analysis by the New York Times — although it’s impossible to say how much of their upsurge is the result of mass-bans and algorithm changes on the part of Facebook.

The analysis shows a 7.8 million advantage in Facebook interactions for Democrat Senate candidates vs. Republican Senate candidates in a 30-day period ending October 15, and a 2 million advantage in interactions for Democrats fighting House races over the same period.

Shortly before the conclusion of the New York Times’ 30-day analysis period, Facebook purged over 800 accounts and pages for spreading “misinformation,” many of which were right-wing, anti-establishment, libertarian and anti-war. As part of the purge, Facebook banned multiple pages belonging to Brian Kolfage, an Air Force veteran and triple amputee who had invested $300,000 in ads for his pages that Facebook itself suggested, and who relied on the site for income.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg also personally made the decision to ban Infowars from the platform earlier this year. The platform also came under fire for blocking Republican congressional candidate Elizabeth Heng’s ad earlier this year for being “sensational.”


https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2018/10/ ... m-changes/


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:39 am
 


Quote:
Democrat candidates for the Senate and House are vastly outpacing their Republican opponents on Facebook and Facebook-owned Instagram, according to analysis by the New York Times — although it’s impossible to say how much of their upsurge is the result of mass-bans and algorithm changes on the part of Facebook.


ROTFL

Innuendo-peddling propaganda from Breitbart

Basically like saying “Donald Trump was celebrated at a rally this morning - although it’s impossible to tell how many puppies he strangled before his appearance”.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:02 pm
 


As I mentioned about Georgia, here’s a more thorough description of the racist election-cheating Republicans trying to win the only way they know how:

Quote:
Voter-Suppression Tactics in the Age of Trump

The suppression of minority votes is the homegrown corollary of the Administration’s xenophobic rhetoric—an attempt to place a white thumb on the demographic scale.

Jelani CobbOctober 29, 2018 Issue

Decades ago, amid the most overt privations of Jim Crow, African-Americans used to tell a joke about a black Harvard professor who moves to the Deep South and tries to register to vote. A white clerk tells him that he will first have to read aloud a paragraph from the Constitution. When he easily does so, the clerk says that he will also have to read and translate a section written in Spanish. Again he complies. The clerk then demands that he read sections in French, German, and Russian, all of which he happens to speak fluently. Finally, the clerk shows him a passage in Arabic. The professor looks at it and says, “My Arabic is rusty, but I believe this translates to ‘Negroes cannot vote in this county.’ ”

Old jokes have lately been finding renewed salience. Literacy tests, poll taxes, and grandfather clauses, once the most common mechanisms for disadvantaging minority voters, have been consigned to the history books, but one need look no further than the governor’s race in Georgia to see their modern equivalents in action. The race between the Republican, Brian Kemp, Georgia’s secretary of state, and the Democrat, Stacey Abrams, the former minority leader of the state House of Representatives—who, if she wins, will be the first black female governor in the country—is a virtual tie. But Kemp has invoked the so-called exact-match law to suspend fifty-three thousand voter-registration applications, for infractions as minor as a hyphen missing from a surname. African-Americans make up thirty-two per cent of the state’s population, but they represent nearly seventy per cent of the suspended applications. Kemp’s move is particularly questionable given that Abrams’s electoral strategy hinges on mobilizing the six hundred thousand unregistered black voters who have long been seen as the holy grail of Democratic politics in the state.

Kemp’s acts are singled out for scrutiny in “One Person, No Vote,” a book about modern-day voter suppression, by the historian Carol Anderson. In 2012, after the Asian American Legal Advocacy Center, in Atlanta, discovered that many of its clients who were naturalized citizens were not on the voter rolls, despite having registered, the group raised the issue with Kemp’s office. “In a show of raw intimidation,” Anderson writes, “Kemp ordered an investigation questioning the methods that the organization had used to register new voters.” In 2014, Kemp investigated the New Georgia Project, a voter-registration initiative that Abrams had founded. In a similar vein, officials in Jefferson County last week ordered a group of African-American senior citizens off a bus taking them to an early-voting site, on the ground that the transportation, which had been organized by the nonpartisan group Black Voters Matter, was a “political activity.”

....According to the Brennan Center for Justice, ninety-nine bills designed to diminish voter access were introduced last year in thirty-one state legislatures. Many of the recent Republican-led efforts stem from the Supreme Court’s 2013 decision in Shelby v. Holder. In an opinion that eviscerated the Voting Rights Act of 1965, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that discrimination still exists, but not sufficiently to warrant the “extraordinary” remediation measures that the act imposed on the states of the former Confederacy. That argument is roughly equivalent to saying that a decline in the prevalence of an infectious disease means that we should stop vaccinating against it. Within hours of the decision, Texas announced a strict new voter-I.D. law. Mississippi and Alabama shortly afterward began enforcing similar laws that previously had been barred.

The decision added a layer of severity to a voter-access crisis precipitated by state laws that prohibit six million Americans with past convictions from voting. In three Southern states—Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky—this means that at least twenty per cent of eligible-age African-Americans cannot vote. Meanwhile, North Carolina enacted restrictions on early voting, a policy that particularly affects African-Americans, who are likely to be hourly-wage workers and cannot always get to the polls on Election Day. Last year, the Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal to reinstate a voter-I.D. law in North Carolina that a federal court had found targeted black voters “with almost surgical precision.” In effect, the question posed by Roberts’s ruling is how much discrimination there has to be before you can justify protecting voters.

Ironically, though, a number of the recent laws validate Roberts’s argument about the undue burden that the Voting Rights Act put on the South; complaints have been lodged in several states that fought for the Union, such as Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Iowa, which have passed strict voter-I.D. or roll-purge laws. Earlier this year, in Kansas, a federal judge struck down a law that required voters to provide proof of citizenship to register, championed by Kris Kobach, the secretary of state, who served as a vice-chair of Donald Trump’s short-lived voter-fraud commission and is now running for governor. In North Dakota, which didn’t become a state until twenty-four years after the Civil War, Native Americans must now provide an I.D. that shows a street address—even though many have only a P.O. box.

....



https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018 ... e-of-trump

Or as Sam Bee says it:

]


Last edited by BeaverFever on Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:55 pm
 


Signs point to hope for Republicans on November 6


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