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Conservatives take the lead http://www.canadaka.net/forums/editorial-discussions-f113/conservatives-take-the-lead-t57864.html	Page 1 of 3

Author:	Guest [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 11:56 am ]
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<strong>Written By:</strong> Anonymous <strong>Date:</strong> 2006-01-06 10:56:29 <a href="/article/155629218-conservatives-take-the-lead">Article Link</a> In the key battleground of seat-rich Ontario, the Liberals have fallen four points to 36%, giving the Conservatives, who remained at 38%, the edge. The Liberals have won four consecutive elections largely on the strength of their popularity in Canada's most populous province. Nationally, the NDP have the support of 18% of voters, up two points, while Green party support remains unchanged at 5%. The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, has slipped two points but would still attract more than half the votes in Quebec with 52% support, a 26-point lead over the Liberals, while Conservative support has jumped to 12% from seven. <a href="http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/story.html?id=70ede204-7745-4d56-a8de-ecd62302b86a">http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/story.html?id=70ede204-7745-4d56-a8de-ecd62302b86a</a>

Author:	Marcarc [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:02 pm ]
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Gee, and the poll being done for Canwest and Global has NOTHING to do with it.

Author:	Guest [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:07 pm ]
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Time will tell.

Author:	Guest [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:47 pm ]
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Why is there such a big difference in poll numbers? In the "old" days the different polling firms usually showed the same numbers. Now the numbers between polls seem vastly different. Some polls have the conservatives at 40% in Ontario while others have them in the low thirties..along with the liberals.

Author:	Guest [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 1:03 pm ]
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Depends on the region, sample size, and the questions asked. The latter being the key...if you are a Liberal you might ask about "values".

Author:	Wayne Coady [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 1:10 pm ]
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Polls are nothing more than misleading information or propaganda which has as its intent to pull those people in a political direction because they are unable to think clearly for themselves. My god I often wonder how the people years back were ever able to determine what candidate was best suited for their constituency with out pollsters ? When the voting population are unable to vote for what is best for candidate without some pollster pushing them in the best direction the one conducting the poll , then those person should without question stay clear of the ballot box. I often wonder if people know what the purpose of a political party is? I cannot understand why it is that people are under the impression the party system has the market cornered on brains, why is it that we (Canada ) have not tried to understand why it is that we have placed so much power in the hands of so few? I cannot understand why we are willing to let the stealing , lying and corruption continue , just because the economy of Canada is doing so well? Try to imagine how much better Canada would be doing if we had a “government” in Ottawa that worked for all the Canadian citizens and this nation , instead of one single political party and its hacks. Why are we so willing to be bought off at election time , with our own dam money and when just a few short months before , we were being told that even though Canada was doing well financially , that their was no money to fix our health care system ? When in the name of God will people start to think ? --- Good government is not a party government

Author:	Guest [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 1:29 pm ]
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I too have noticed what I percieve as a growing Conservative bias in elecion coverage on CTV and Global television, which makes me wonder if the polls they tout are not mixed with a little wishful thinking or a lot of "push polling". I really wonder why the other parties seem to accept this with such equanimity. Perhaps, like me, they have come to expect it and look on it as normal. That's unfortunate, and tends to exacerbate the problem. I'm doubtful though that the Conservatives can get enough seats even to form a credible minority. Where will they come from? My usually solid sources "down home" as they say, suggest they may even loose a seat in Newfoundland and stand to gain only one in all of Atlantic Canada, for a net gain of zero. Quebec is a wasteland for them, and if they win one seat there it would be more than they expect. Some seats will change in "battleground Ontario", perhaps as many as five or six. But a couple of these will go to the NDP, and the Tories may well loose a tightly contested riding in the Ottawa Valley. Their net gain here promises to be only two or three at best. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, they will loose a few seats, as at least a couple of those they won by tiny margins in 2004 go back to the NDP. There isn't much to gain in Alberta, where they own the air the people breathe. They may very well win all the seats there, but that would only net them two, and won't offset their Prairie losses. Believe it or not, their best chance to gain is in British Columbia, where I think they could pick up as many as ten, perhaps even eleven seats in a host of too-close-to-call races. But that wouldn't be nearly enough, even though the Liberals are definitely on the decline, and will loose seats to the Bloc in Quebec and elsewhere to both the Tories and the NDP. The NDP, for reasons that I simply can't comprehend, are still not at the breakthrough point. They will gain some seats, but it will only be five or six at best. That's a pity. While I am not a partisan, I see them as the best of a Hobson's choice among the "big three". I usually see myself as a serious contributor here, but this is my fun day, and I am going to make real fool of myself by predictng another Liberal minority, weaker and more unstable than the last one. In the final analysis, I don't think even the clear far right favouritism of the greed-driven electronic media is going to make much difference. It will be amusing to see if I am anywhere close with these predicitions. It would be great sport if it were not so sad and serious for all of us.

Author:	Guest [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 1:29 pm ]
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Todays Ses poll has the Conservatives sinking in Ontario for some reason. I thought the law and order platform would have increased support there.

Author:	BC Mary [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:22 pm ]
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Dear "Anonymous" at 12:29 PM. Here's where I really and truly wish for some kind of identifier so that I won't miss your next posting. Pick a name, any name (like I's the Bye maybe) ... so that you aren't lost in the nameless gloom out there. Thanks for your run-down of How Canada Votes. It's true, what you say: it's an astounding shock sometimes, to realize how people decide. I too hope the NDP does well. My vote choice will be easy: Olivia Chow in Trinity Spadina. Elsewjere, I'm coungint on the OMG factor, where Canadians wake up on January 23 to remember exactly who they are. It happened (almost) in B.C. last May, despite the steady, 4-year, pro-Liberal/Conservative pounding by CanWest against the New Democrats. And despite the outrageously wrong Globe and Mail poll published on the eve of the provincial election saying the LINOs (Liberal in Name Only) were surging ahead; and despite an outright lie in CanWest media saying that BC Teachers would take a strike vote as soon as the election was over (they didn't, they wouldn't). On a level playing field, the NDP would have easily won back the B.C. government. People aren't fooled for long. But meantime, it seems as if people must do all they can, to keep our media honest. It is so vitally important to a democratic society. Thanks.

Author:	Perturbed [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:29 pm ]
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Yeah defeat that Liberal Tony Ianno guy. He is just awful--he doesn't even attend parliament. --- "A Liberal is someone who refuses to take his own side in a fight". -Robert Frost

Author:	Guest [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:34 pm ]
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Typical CAP pharisee post

Author:	Perturbed [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:39 pm ]
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It did for a while.... --- "A Liberal is someone who refuses to take his own side in a fight". -Robert Frost

Author:	Angus McCracken [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:51 pm ]
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Well, earlier in the campaign I noticed an inherent bias towards the Liberals by CTV and to some extent Can West, so it swings both ways and has done so in the past. The 2000 election was a perfect example of media bias, or perhaps Stockwell Day was just that much of a flake, the point is who knows? The media can be tricky. Crime is supposedly going down nationwide, and yet the media are beating their drums all day and all night long. Murder rates are higher in the West, but when a young woman is tragically shot on Boxing Day in downtown Toronto all of a sudden the country must act swiftly to save the good people of Toronto. I think at the end of the day, you can't believe the word of any media outlet, any where. People need to learn how to gleam the truth from what they see and what they hear, and most especially from what they read. I'm waiting for the Dumb-Dumb factor as I like to call it. Those folks who wake up the day before or the day of the election and suddenly it dawns on them to make a selection between the major parties in their riding, and never all of the possible candidates. It's a shame, but people do need to realise that there are more choices, not just between the Liberals and the Conservatives, but others besides the NDP as well. As for Ontario, well Ontario is Ontario, you have to learn to deal with Ontarians and come to accept the fact that there's nothing you can do and all your bellyaching won't change a darn thing. At least that's what I came to realise. Honestly, if I was forced to choose between only the Liberal platform on law and order, and the Conservative platform hands down it would be the Conservative. That doesn't mean they are correct or that their platform is the best, but that strictly in comparison with the Liberals, their platform actually makes sense where as the Liberal platform is all talk and no substance, just a lot of hot air and promises. Plus, their platform is built around the concept of banning something that is already illegal? Only a Liberal could come up with that one. And yet in Toronto (not including the GTA) there is overwhelming support for the Liberals. Toronto will always be a Liberal city, no matter how stupid or how corrupt the Liberals get, Torontonians will always vote Liberal. I have to say, I do hope Olvia Chow gets in, I was surprised that she didn't last time around. The sad thing about all of this is that the media in this country is centred for the most part in Toronto. You don't think you're going to get a Liberal bias in there somewhere, think again! These polls mean nothing and will continue to do so until election day. They'll then begin to possibly resemble what will eventually become the truth on election night, so we'll just have to wait until then. I'm expecting another Liberal minority government. I put very little faith in the urban Ontarian vote, those voters who will always vote Liberal. I was hoping to see more of an increase for the NDP in Ontarian, but what can I say? People in this province for the most part aren't that bright when it comes to politics. I personally am dying to see what the Liberals have this time around to save their arses. Possibly a video of Stephen Harper beating a disabled, black, lesbian, bilingual woman over the head with a dead baby seal? What's sad about this, is not just the disturbing picture I've painted here, but the fact that this would be the kind of thing that the Liberals would need in order to encourage people to vote for them and keep them in power. Not policy, leadership, or vision, but a man from Calgary beating a woman over the head with a dead baby seal. --- "All great truths begin as blasphemies" - George Bernard Shaw

Author:	Marcarc [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:00 pm ]
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There really is no knowing how the election will go, the biggest giveaway is the fact that these polls show hardly anybody 'undecided' whereas in most elections almost half of voters are undecided. All I can do is speak for myself, had he not had such a 'law and order' and 'charter rights' platform I would probably RUN for the conservatives. The 'Bush friendly' platform simply means there is no way I would ever consider them, my wife thinks this as well, but farther than that I can only guess. Many people could very well have voted conservative last time as a 'protest vote', not expecting them to get so many seats. Those votes could go the other way. For liberals, we have no idea how many 'have just had enough'. However, the Gomery information was available last time around, and it didn't sink them completely. I can't think that ANY liberals are actually voting for Paul Martin, however, many, particular in southern Ontario would be voting in their local rep, most of whom are nowhere near this scandal. The other BIG factor is simply that huge numbers of canadians will simply not even show up to vote. That makes the possibility of change that much more optional. While I keep hearing about 'law and order' issues and the idea that this would push toward the conservatives, keep in mind that Torontoians and Ontarians are quite familiar with 'law and order' campaigns from Ralph Harris. So in the end, getting drunk and throwing darts at the wall is as good as any other method for predicting the outcome.

Author:	Marcarc [ Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:01 pm ]
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There really is no knowing how the election will go, the biggest giveaway is the fact that these polls show hardly anybody 'undecided' whereas in most elections almost half of voters are undecided. All I can do is speak for myself, had he not had such a 'law and order' and 'charter rights' platform I would probably RUN for the conservatives. The 'Bush friendly' platform simply means there is no way I would ever consider them, my wife thinks this as well, but farther than that I can only guess. Many people could very well have voted conservative last time as a 'protest vote', not expecting them to get so many seats. Those votes could go the other way. For liberals, we have no idea how many 'have just had enough'. However, the Gomery information was available last time around, and it didn't sink them completely. I can't think that ANY liberals are actually voting for Paul Martin, however, many, particular in southern Ontario would be voting in their local rep, most of whom are nowhere near this scandal. The other BIG factor is simply that huge numbers of canadians will simply not even show up to vote. That makes the possibility of change that much more optional. While I keep hearing about 'law and order' issues and the idea that this would push toward the conservatives, keep in mind that Torontoians and Ontarians are quite familiar with 'law and order' campaigns from Ralph Harris. So in the end, getting drunk and throwing darts at the wall is as good as any other method for predicting the outcome.

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