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Chatter for 2 April 2019
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Author:  BartSimpson [ Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Chatter for 2 April 2019

As usual, this is just chatter. It's not Gospel, I'm not asserting anything as a fact. I'm just passing it along.

WYSIWYG.

* * * * * * * *

Last year a Chinese Type 39A/B Yuan class submarine was noted as being missing in the vicinity of Bassett Shoal. Sadly, the Chinese search effort with 'research' vessels ended and intel indicates that some 35 to 40 PLAN staff have been quietly removed from the active roster with no official explanation.

* * * * * * * *

A recent SNIE (Special National Intelligence Estimate) is reported to have observed a massive fall-off in readiness, capability, and degraded force multipliers for the Russian military. The Russians have been particularly hard hit by their inability to replace Ukrainian military suppliers for tank engines, tank tracks, tanks, helicopter engines, a whole spectrum of missile kit, and other resources that the Russians lost access to when they went to war against Ukraine. Ironically, Russian acts of sabotage inside Ukraine have permanently destroyed key arms factories that the Russian military cannot replace.

* * * * * * * *

The same SNIE also noted that the Russian military decline is being accelerated by Russia's economic problems that have hampered procurement and they're further exacerbated by unpaid officers and enlisted staff who are selling military equipment on the black market due to military payrolls being wholly unpaid for several months at a time.

* * * * * * * *

Russia has moved critical ships from the Northern Fleet and Pacific Fleet to the Black Sea. This has been done to try to stop an anticipated NATO 'freedom of the seas' exercise into the Sea of Azov which is now entirely claimed by Russia. The United States in response has stepped up exercises in Russia's north and in Russia's Far East in order to cause a greater strain on the reduced forces in both theatres. The intent is to exacerbate the loss of Russia's access to replacement parts from Ukraine.

* * * * * * * *

To date the Russians have seized over 100 ships in the Sea of Azov. Their crews are also being held prisoner at a military prison in Rostov. Four of the ships are small fishing boats of Romanian registry and the Romanians are becoming agitated over what their media is calling an act of war and piracy. The rest of the ships are expected to be of Ukrainian registry.

* * * * * * * *

Since the invasion and annexation of Crimea the Russians have moved 500,000 or more ethnic Russians into the territory and it is considered a fait accompli that many of these people have moved into the contested Donbas region.

* * * * * * * *

Israeli tanks crossed into Syria from the Golan Heights and then attacked and destroyed an Iranian observation post that had been the source of sniper fire against Israeli and UN border guards. Iran has now withdrawn their military from any contact with Israel.

* * * * * * * *

Public protests in Iran are escalating in response to the religious regime's recent inclination to hard line enforcement of Islamic law.

* * * * * * * *

China has made repeated attempts to buy Ukrainian technology and military manufacturers in order to obtain access to to personnel and trade secrets. China is a major buyer of products from Motor Sich and Ukraine suspects that China is reselling the products to Russia, which cannot but these critical products directly. Ukraine is so far rebuffing Chinese efforts to buy into Ukraine.

* * * * * * * *

Anti-government protests in Russia have been increasing this year but the newer protest movements are not over corruption or abuse. Instead the protests are focused on dramatic increases in pollution that have been made more evident by the advent of snow that is black, brown, and even green. Analysts have noted that Russia is reactivating or trying to reactivate heavily polluting Soviet-era factories in the Urals and in Siberia.

* * * * * * * *

The US and Russia are agreed in forming a joint force of peacekeepers to stand between Syrian Kurd and Turkish forces. Turkey has issued statements to the effect that they would not abide by any such peacekeeping force as they continue to act to wipe out the Kurds. Syria (Assad) is officially supporting Kurdish sovereignty and independence mostly to have the Kurds (and US and Russia) act as a buffer between Syria and any further expansion into Syria by Turkey.

* * * * * * * *

Russian forces in Syria refuse to defend Syrian or Iranian forces from Israeli air or missile attack. The estimate is that Russia's anti-air and anti-missile weaponry is vulnerable to destruction by Israeli forces and Russia cannot replace these Ukrainian-made systems.

* * * * * * * *

Russia has officially opposed Turkey's plans to annex a 30 kilometer deep 'security zone' on the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border. Russia has moved approximately six hundred troops and at least twenty armoured vehicles into the territory along with Syrian Army observers. The United States and NATO have not opposed the Russian action.

* * * * * * * *

Russian military advisors are now working in Zimbabwe to secure three separate Russian investments in the country. A diamond mine is known to be one of the investments.

* * * * * * * *

Venezuelan dictator Maduro was unable to complete a deal with Cuba to hire technical advisors to help suppress the Venezuelan opposition. Seems Cuba demanded payment in cash and would not accept an IOU against oil that Venezuela can't pump out of the ground anymore.

* * * * * * * *

Since 1999 over two million educated and middle class Russians have emigrated from Russia. Coincidentally, this is also the same year that the Putin regime took power.

* * * * * * * *

Venezuela currently owes over US$120 billion in short term debt to foreign lenders. The bulk of the debt is owed to Russia and China. Due to the inability of the Maduro regime to resuscitate the economy China has reached out to Guaido to ascertain a potential alternative to their current support for Maduro.

* * * * * * * *

When the Islamic State in Iraq's Anbar province collapsed they hid cash and valuables valued at an estimated US$100 million. A treasure hunt is ongoing with varying groups racing to find the loot first.

* * * * * * * *

Russia's parliament is currently considering legislation that would legalize certain types of 'approved' corruption with legal exceptions to anti-corruption laws. Specifying those exceptions has become exceedingly difficult with various political factions fighting over who does and does not warrant an exception. One Russian language commentator lost her job after saying on-air that this kind of thing is an example of what Russians don't like about Russia.

* * * * * * * *

That is all.

Author:  xerxes [ Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Chatter for 2 April 2019

$1:
Last year a Chinese Type 39A/B Yuan class submarine was noted as being missing in the vicinity of Bassett Shoal. Sadly, the Chinese search effort with 'research' vessels ended and intel indicates that some 35 to 40 PLAN staff have been quietly removed from the active roster with no official explanation.


Likely they all suffered from mysterious and simultaneous brain haemorraghes.

$1:
A recent SNIE (Special National Intelligence Estimate) is reported to have observed a massive fall-off in readiness, capability, and degraded force multipliers for the Russian military. The Russians have been particularly hard hit by their inability to replace Ukrainian military suppliers for tank engines, tank tracks, tanks, helicopter engines, a whole spectrum of missile kit, and other resources that the Russians lost access to when they went to war against Ukraine. Ironically, Russian acts of sabotage inside Ukraine have permanently destroyed key arms factories that the Russian military cannot replace.


Image

$1:
To date the Russians have seized over 100 ships in the Sea of Azov. Their crews are also being held prisoner at a military prison in Rostov. Four of the ships are small fishing boats of Romanian registry and the Romanians are becoming agitated over what their media is calling an act of war and piracy. The rest of the ships are expected to be of Ukrainian registry.


Do you mean large commercial ships or is it more fishing trawlers?

$1:
Since 1999 over two million educated and middle class Russians have emigrated from Russia. Coincidentally, this is also the same year that the Putin regime took power.


Time to rebuild the Berlin Wall then.

Author:  BartSimpson [ Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Chatter for 2 April 2019

The Sea of Azov is mostly shallow so I'd assume that most of these ~100 ships that were seized are smaller vessels with a draft of six meters or less.

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