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Ontario at risk of mild recession, TD report says
http://www.canadaka.net/forums/ontario-f33/ontario-at-risk-of-mild-recession-td-report-says-t62486-30.html
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Author:  DerbyX [ Sun Mar 23, 2008 12:31 pm ]
Post subject: 

dino_bobba_renno dino_bobba_renno:
I don't know about that Derb. I have to think there's a little more to it when the mayor of Windsor is proposing to shuttle unemployed auto workers to and from Alberta. While your right that Ontario's economy is still growing it is not growing at any break neck pace. If you look at corporate tax rates (and be sure to include capital taxes) across Canada and the projected growth for each province you'll see a definite trend in favor of those provinces that have lowered their corporate tax rates.

If you look at Ontario’s economic growth since McGuity's Liberals took power you can see a very defined decrease in growth over the past 5 years. Taking into consideration that this "recession" we are facing really didn't take effect until about a year or two ago it doesn't speak well of the economic policies McGuinty has introduced.

I agree that there are many factors that play into the slow down in Ontario but to me it really doesn't seem like McGuinty is reacting to them in an effort to minimize their impact.

I guess we can sit here and say "time will tell" but do we really want to wait until Ontario becomes a "have not" province before Ontario reacts?

As for Flaherty's criticism? I'm just shaking head. What a dumb ass. It's one thing to point something out it's quite another basically launch an attack on a Premier of a province. And he's hardly one to talk after what he left Ontario with. Sometimes I really have to wonder if the Conservatives really want a majority because they sure have a hell of a way of going about it.


A few facts that have been misrepresented.

Corporate tax rates:

Image

In addition: Corporations operating in Ontario are generally taxed at a rate of 36.12 per cent. However, Ontario's manufacturing and resource industries are subject to a lower 12.12 per cent provincial tax rate. When combined with the federal Manufacturing & Processing (M&P) rate of 22.12 per cent, a corporation earning manufacturing income in Ontario is taxed at a rate of only 34.12 per cent. By way of comparison, this combined rate is generally less than the combined statutory U.S. federal and state tax rates.

Canadian-controlled private corporations carrying on business in Ontario are also eligible for a much more favourable combined federal/Ontario rate of 18.62 per cent on the first C$250,000 of active business income earned.

The hard hit auto industry is a global condition that Dalton can do little against. He has already brought in several stimulus packages but other then personally buying a couple hundread thousand cars he has done his part.

Unemployment:

Ontario Unemployment Rate by Age Cohort
Age Cohort Year
2003 2004 2005 2006
15 and over 6.9% 6.8% 6.6% 6.3%
15-24 14.4% 14.1% 13.9% 13.1%
25 and over 5.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0%
25-44 6.0% 6.0% 5.6% 5.5%
25-54 5.7% 5.4% 5.3% 5.0%
45 and over 4.7% 4.5% 4.7% 4.3%
55 and over 4.4% 5.0% 4.5% 4.7%
60-64 5.0% 5.3% 4.7% 4.9%
65 and over 3.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.4%

Looks to me that unemployment is going down even despite the hard hit auto sector.

The fact is that people like ryan are trying desperately to shift all possible blame on the Liberals and some of the anti-Liberals from out west are actually cheering for Ontario to go into recession all for the crime of electing a provincial Liberal party.

There is nothing to this BS about Ontario becoming a have-not province.

Image

Ontario GDP vs. Selected Provinces and Territories, 2006
Provinces Percentage $Cdn Millions
Ontario 38.65 556,282
Quebec 19.74 284,158
Alberta 16.37 235,593
British Columbia 12.49 179,701
Atlantic Prov. 6.00 86,416
Saskatchewan 3.13 45,051
Manitoba 3.11 44,757
Territories 0.48 6,912
Total 100 1,439,291

Image

Author:  Toro [ Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:03 pm ]
Post subject: 

Derby

Stated and actual tax rates are very different things. For example, America has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world, but with all the write-offs, the effective corporate tax rate in America is one of the lowest in the world.

Author:  Toro [ Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:05 pm ]
Post subject: 

ryan29 ryan29:
Toro Toro:
Ontario is going into a recession because the US is going into a recession.


thats just what dalton wants you to think , he does not want anyone to question his governments polices and wheter or not they are actually doing anygood for the province he just wants people to blame everyone but him cause he is so wonderful .


Look, I've never voted Liberal in my life. But Ontario is going into a recession because it is the province with the most exposure to US intermediate and final demand. Top that off with a record high loonie and its no wonder Ontario is slowing.

Governments can't really stop this stuff.

Author:  Toro [ Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:07 pm ]
Post subject: 

dino_bobba_renno dino_bobba_renno:
Toro Toro:
Ontario is going into a recession because the US is going into a recession.


Don't get me wrong, I don't think that the slow down is all McGuinty's fault. I'm just saying that if you are faced with an economic resession you should maybe think twice about spending like you did in the years when you were booming. Cut spending so you can cut taxes so you can stimulate growth. It's a fairly straight forward thing.


Cutting spending going into a recession is a bad idea. Ontario should not do that. In fact, spending will increase as cyclical triggers to cushion the slowdown - UI, welfare - kick in.

This is the time when governments should run deficits. They can do that by cutting taxes and not cutting spending. Then, when the economy is doing better, either raise taxes or cut spending.

Author:  DerbyX [ Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:09 pm ]
Post subject: 

Toro Toro:
Derby

Stated and actual tax rates are very different things. For example, America has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world, but with all the write-offs, the effective corporate tax rate in America is one of the lowest in the world.


Thats why the addenum below the graph. Ontario has the same previsions.

Author:  dino_bobba_renno [ Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:49 pm ]
Post subject: 

Derb I think where your getting your info is from the http://www.2ontario.com site. The formating looks the same so I'm just assuming. You have to be careful when quoting for there because those figures are from March of 2007. The forcast for GDP on that site for 2007 is stated at 2.8% but the real growth for 2007 is being pegged at 2.2%. So long story short it's not as accurate as some of the newer info out there.

I'm not going to go through it chart by chart but there is no doubt that Ontario is lagging both in GDP growth and employment. The following demonstrate this but I might add these are a bit new but not by much being from around June of 2007.

Image

Image

You also have to keep in mind that you are not only competing with the US but the rest of Canada as well.

Image

And add to that the capital taxes:

Image

Sorry about the big ass screen shots but my photo editing software is on the fritz.

Toro Toro:
dino_bobba_renno dino_bobba_renno:
Toro Toro:
Ontario is going into a recession because the US is going into a recession.


Don't get me wrong, I don't think that the slow down is all McGuinty's fault. I'm just saying that if you are faced with an economic resession you should maybe think twice about spending like you did in the years when you were booming. Cut spending so you can cut taxes so you can stimulate growth. It's a fairly straight forward thing.


Cutting spending going into a recession is a bad idea. Ontario should not do that. In fact, spending will increase as cyclical triggers to cushion the slowdown - UI, welfare - kick in.

This is the time when governments should run deficits. They can do that by cutting taxes and not cutting spending. Then, when the economy is doing better, either raise taxes or cut spending.


Toro is right here. If there ever was a time to run a deficit it would be now. I do think that Ontario should maybe try other alternatives instead first though. When I say they should cut spending I’m not really referring to current programs. Rather I’m referring to many of the new spending initiatives that McGuinty is proposing. He seems content to go full steam ahead with spending as opposed to slowing it down a bit and being a bit more conservative (yes I know he’s a Liberal but I mean conservative as in “more cautious”).

As for me I don't care if he is Liberal or not. I just don't think his current economic path is a wise one.

Author:  DerbyX [ Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:59 pm ]
Post subject: 

Lagging because of the weak auto sector yes. That still doesn't come anywhere near Ontario becoming a have-not province.

Even with the weak sector both your stats and mine show unemployment down. Other sectors are filling in the gaps and once the auto industry recovers then Ontario will rapidly recover.

Author:  dino_bobba_renno [ Sun Mar 23, 2008 2:05 pm ]
Post subject: 

DerbyX DerbyX:
Lagging because of the weak auto sector yes. That still doesn't come anywhere near Ontario becoming a have-not province.

Even with the weak sector both your stats and mine show unemployment down. Other sectors are filling in the gaps and once the auto industry recovers then Ontario will rapidly recover.


Wow, that was a quick response. Again careful with some of the assumptions. Employment is may be going up but in what fields and how much do those jobs pay? GDP is probably better indicator then employment and that has been shown to have been steadily decreasing since McGuinty took power.

Yes there are many contributing factors to this but like I mentioned before McGuinty's response to these seems to be counter productive as demonstrated by the nose dive Ontario's GDP has taken.

Author:  DerbyX [ Sun Mar 23, 2008 3:01 pm ]
Post subject: 

dino_bobba_renno dino_bobba_renno:
DerbyX DerbyX:
Lagging because of the weak auto sector yes. That still doesn't come anywhere near Ontario becoming a have-not province.

Even with the weak sector both your stats and mine show unemployment down. Other sectors are filling in the gaps and once the auto industry recovers then Ontario will rapidly recover.


Wow, that was a quick response. Again careful with some of the assumptions. Employment is may be going up but in what fields and how much do those jobs pay? GDP is probably better indicator then employment and that has been shown to have been steadily decreasing since McGuinty took power.

Yes there are many contributing factors to this but like I mentioned before McGuinty's response to these seems to be counter productive as demonstrated by the nose dive Ontario's GDP has taken.


No. Ontario's GDP isn't shrinking, mearly its % of Canada as a whole. All that means is that other provinces are increasing their share and thats not in any way bad for Ontario. In fact your own tables show this.

Ontario's GDP is still growing but at a slower rate which can be related directly to the soft auto sector.

We all covered this in many Ontario election threads where we tore ryan to shreds. McGuinty has initiated more then a few buisness initiatives that the industry leaders asked for. They didn't get all they wanted because quite frankly they always ask for more then is reasonable. They all do.

How you can state that McGuinty is acting counter productive is wrong in that its based on your error that Ontarios GDP is falling. Again. from your table.

Real GDP growth:

2005 2.9
2006 1.9
2007 1.8
2008 2.3

That looks like upward growth to me. Whats happening is that other provinces are growing faster so while every province is growing, Ontarios % of the whole is decreasing.

Can you provide evuidence that McGuinties strategies are causing more harm then good without resorting to the baseless assumption ryan always makes?

Can you show with evidence that its Mcguinty's fault that Americans are buying less cars? Remember that we can show lacklustre sales are behind plant closures more then any other factors which is why for every plant closing in Ontario, at least 3 or 4 close in the US.

I don't have time to repost the employment stats but needless to say when ryan tried to claim (after we busted his claim of massive job losses) that all job increases were low-paying mcjobs we shredded him with proof that the bulk of the jobs were in fact skilled jobs paying a good wage. The average wage of all jobs added was a little over $19/hr.

http://www.canadaka.net/modules.php?nam ... sc&start=0

Take a wander through this thread.

In short, Ontario is doing better then the complaints you are hearing about. The auto sector has always wielded much power in Ontraio and they want financial help so they loudly complain about doomsday scenarios.

Dalton is doing a fine job. Thats why he was re-elected to a majority.

Author:  DerbyX [ Sun Mar 23, 2008 4:11 pm ]
Post subject: 

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/arch ... c2744.html

$1:
McGuinty government invests $3 billion to support a competitive Ontario
Ontario's strong and resilient economy continues to grow

QUEEN'S PARK, Dec. 13 /CNW/ - The McGuinty government is taking immediate
action to strengthen Ontario's economic advantage through a $3-billion package
of business tax measures and investments in skills, training and
infrastructure announced today.
This package moves forward on the government's five-point plan for
economic competitiveness and will particularly help people and communities
facing economic challenges.
"The Ontario economy has proven resilient in an increasingly challenging
global economic environment. However, certain key sectors, such as
manufacturing, forestry, agriculture and tourism, face serious challenges,"
said Finance Minister Dwight Duncan. "We are helping these sectors adjust to a
changed economic environment."
Ontario's economy has been challenged by external factors, including a
slowing U.S. economy, record-high oil prices and a stronger Canadian dollar.
In response, the McGuinty government proposes a package of tax measures and
infrastructure investments to enhance competitiveness, strengthen Ontario's
communities and create jobs.

In the 2007 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review released today, the
government is proposing $1.1 billion in tax reductions for business over three
years that would support manufacturers and other sectors, including:

<<
- eliminating the Capital Tax on January 1, 2008 for corporations
primarily engaged in manufacturing and resource activities;
- providing a 21 per cent Capital Tax rate cut for all businesses
retroactive to January 1, 2007, on the way to full elimination in
2010; and
- increasing the small business deduction threshold to $500,000 from
$400,000 - retroactive to January 1, 2007.

The package introduced today would also provide:

- $1.4 billion in new funding to build strategic infrastructure;
- almost $300 million over three years to expand the Land Transfer Tax
Refund Program for First-time Homebuyers to include purchases of
resale homes;
- $150 million to strengthen competitiveness and help cattle, hog and
horticulture farmers;
- $50 million in strategic investments in innovation;
- $40 million to provide skills development and rapid re-employment
services for laid-off workers through the $1-billion
Employment Ontario training system; and
- $30 million to expand the Ministry of Tourism's successful festivals
and events promotion and marketing campaign in the domestic and
international markets.

In spite of external factors, the Economic Outlook indicates Ontario's
economy is on track to outperform the 2007 Ontario Budget forecast.
Ontario's continued economic strength allows the government the
flexibility to implement targeted measures, particularly for manufacturers,
and to invest in our communities through improved infrastructure.
Despite inheriting a structural deficit of $5.5 billion in 2003-04, the
Economic Outlook confirms that the Province's budget is balanced. If the
reserve is not required, a $750 million surplus is projected for 2007-08.
Despite weaker projections for economic growth in 2008 and 2009, Ontario is on
track for continued balanced budgets.
"The people of Ontario want us to be prudent fiscal managers and to pursue
real progress at the same time," said Duncan. "The people of Ontario are
counting on us to move Ontario forward. That is what our plan is about."


It looks like Dalton is making all the right moves.

Author:  ryan29 [ Mon Mar 24, 2008 11:49 am ]
Post subject: 

Toro Toro:
ryan29 ryan29:
Toro Toro:
Ontario is going into a recession because the US is going into a recession.


thats just what dalton wants you to think , he does not want anyone to question his governments polices and wheter or not they are actually doing anygood for the province he just wants people to blame everyone but him cause he is so wonderful .


Look, I've never voted Liberal in my life. But Ontario is going into a recession because it is the province with the most exposure to US intermediate and final demand. Top that off with a record high loonie and its no wonder Ontario is slowing.

Governments can't really stop this stuff.



but its clear dalton is desperately looking for someone else to blame other than his own government and we need to ask ourself why are the other provinces doing so good even with the american problems ?

i don't believe ontario is dead last by accident .

Author:  ryan29 [ Mon Mar 24, 2008 11:53 am ]
Post subject: 

DerbyX DerbyX:
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/December2007/13/c2744.html

$1:
McGuinty government invests $3 billion to support a competitive Ontario
Ontario's strong and resilient economy continues to grow

QUEEN'S PARK, Dec. 13 /CNW/ - The McGuinty government is taking immediate
action to strengthen Ontario's economic advantage through a $3-billion package
of business tax measures and investments in skills, training and
infrastructure announced today.
This package moves forward on the government's five-point plan for
economic competitiveness and will particularly help people and communities
facing economic challenges.
"The Ontario economy has proven resilient in an increasingly challenging
global economic environment. However, certain key sectors, such as
manufacturing, forestry, agriculture and tourism, face serious challenges,"
said Finance Minister Dwight Duncan. "We are helping these sectors adjust to a
changed economic environment."
Ontario's economy has been challenged by external factors, including a
slowing U.S. economy, record-high oil prices and a stronger Canadian dollar.
In response, the McGuinty government proposes a package of tax measures and
infrastructure investments to enhance competitiveness, strengthen Ontario's
communities and create jobs.

In the 2007 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review released today, the
government is proposing $1.1 billion in tax reductions for business over three
years that would support manufacturers and other sectors, including:

<<
- eliminating the Capital Tax on January 1, 2008 for corporations
primarily engaged in manufacturing and resource activities;
- providing a 21 per cent Capital Tax rate cut for all businesses
retroactive to January 1, 2007, on the way to full elimination in
2010; and
- increasing the small business deduction threshold to $500,000 from
$400,000 - retroactive to January 1, 2007.

The package introduced today would also provide:

- $1.4 billion in new funding to build strategic infrastructure;
- almost $300 million over three years to expand the Land Transfer Tax
Refund Program for First-time Homebuyers to include purchases of
resale homes;
- $150 million to strengthen competitiveness and help cattle, hog and
horticulture farmers;
- $50 million in strategic investments in innovation;
- $40 million to provide skills development and rapid re-employment
services for laid-off workers through the $1-billion
Employment Ontario training system; and
- $30 million to expand the Ministry of Tourism's successful festivals
and events promotion and marketing campaign in the domestic and
international markets.

In spite of external factors, the Economic Outlook indicates Ontario's
economy is on track to outperform the 2007 Ontario Budget forecast.
Ontario's continued economic strength allows the government the
flexibility to implement targeted measures, particularly for manufacturers,
and to invest in our communities through improved infrastructure.
Despite inheriting a structural deficit of $5.5 billion in 2003-04, the
Economic Outlook confirms that the Province's budget is balanced. If the
reserve is not required, a $750 million surplus is projected for 2007-08.
Despite weaker projections for economic growth in 2008 and 2009, Ontario is on
track for continued balanced budgets.
"The people of Ontario want us to be prudent fiscal managers and to pursue
real progress at the same time," said Duncan. "The people of Ontario are
counting on us to move Ontario forward. That is what our plan is about."


It looks like Dalton is making all the right moves.



question for derby why do you go so far to defend this liberal government ?

do you even live in ontario ? i have suspiousions that you do not and in fact live in another province . but correct me if i'm wrong .

Author:  EyeBrock [ Mon Mar 24, 2008 12:13 pm ]
Post subject: 

Recession in Ontario is a no-brainer. As others have mentioned, the high dollar and a reliance on the auto-sector, mixed with high corporate/payroll taxes mean we are looking at a bit of trouble.
I still haven’t forgiven Dalton for his ‘health-care’ premium. That little tax grab means my family is about $350 worse off. I see very little to no change in my visits to Emerg. Maybe he’s spending the cash elsewhere?

Re the auto sector. We have the ‘big three’ making ugly and gas guzzling cars wondering why sales are slipping. Duh!
My VW Jetta is way better made and looking than the GM and Chrysler vehicles I have bought previously.
Also the dollar is going to chip away at Ontario business. Personally I have just spent a good chunk on camera gear in the US that is basically a third to a half cheaper than I could get in Ontario. The stuff is all made in Japan so we are getting ripped off.

A concise version of the above.

Industry is over taxed.
Consumers are over taxed.
Our main industry makes a crap, ugly and inefficient product.
Consumers get ripped off for everything in our stores, comparable to those 40 minutes away in Buffalo.
Our main export customer is the US and our strong dollar is making us less competitive.

Yup, a mild recession it is!

Author:  DerbyX [ Mon Mar 24, 2008 3:16 pm ]
Post subject: 

ryan29 ryan29:

question for derby why do you go so far to defend this liberal government ?

do you even live in ontario ? i have suspiousions that you do not and in fact live in another province . but correct me if i'm wrong .


You are wrong. You are always wrong.

I'm defending my provincial gov't because its doing a great job.

You are desperately trying to blame them for conditions beyond their control. You were wrong about job losses and were busted. You were wrong about wage estimate and were busted.

You keep claiming that Dalton McGuinty is responsible for the auto sectors poor preformance and subsequent plant lay-offs but have no facts to support it other then your desire to blame the Liberals for everything.

You are obviously ignorant to all the related plant closures in multiple US states attesting to the problem is industry wide and not any result of punitive Ontario conditions.

You ignore the fact that unemployment has gone down, every year for the last 5 years. We have posted the stats concerning job growth which you ignore in favour of "your stats" whereby your personal view of help-wanted posters in Timmies locations.

http://www.gov.on.ca/GOPSP/en/graphics/134096.pdf

Scroll down to page 6 to see where the most job growth has occurred.

See that the the vast bulk of the job losses were in the auto sector with virtually every other scetor showing growth?

If it were the provincial govt's fault and not a particular industries fault then you wouldn't see that pattern.

As for your ad-hominem attack whereby you can't defeat the argument so you instead attack me well thats just you admitting you are defeated.

I live in Ontario and for longer then you.

You are done. 'nuff said.

Author:  Wally_Sconce [ Mon Mar 24, 2008 3:31 pm ]
Post subject: 

Derby,

The Ontario Liberals need to learn that when they crap their pants, someone else might complain about it.

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