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Ontario at risk of mild recession, TD report says
http://www.canadaka.net/forums/ontario-f33/ontario-at-risk-of-mild-recession-td-report-says-t62486-45.html
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Author:  Wally_Sconce [ Mon Mar 24, 2008 3:32 pm ]
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DerbyX DerbyX:
I did not 'crap' my pants


ewwww!!!!! someone else shit in your pants?

Author:  ryan29 [ Mon Mar 24, 2008 4:07 pm ]
Post subject: 

DerbyX DerbyX:
ryan29 ryan29:

question for derby why do you go so far to defend this liberal government ?

do you even live in ontario ? i have suspiousions that you do not and in fact live in another province . but correct me if i'm wrong .


You are wrong. You are always wrong.

I'm defending my provincial gov't because its doing a great job.

You are desperately trying to blame them for conditions beyond their control. You were wrong about job losses and were busted. You were wrong about wage estimate and were busted.

You keep claiming that Dalton McGuinty is responsible for the auto sectors poor preformance and subsequent plant lay-offs but have no facts to support it other then your desire to blame the Liberals for everything.

You are obviously ignorant to all the related plant closures in multiple US states attesting to the problem is industry wide and not any result of punitive Ontario conditions.

You ignore the fact that unemployment has gone down, every year for the last 5 years. We have posted the stats concerning job growth which you ignore in favour of "your stats" whereby your personal view of help-wanted posters in Timmies locations.

http://www.gov.on.ca/GOPSP/en/graphics/134096.pdf

Scroll down to page 6 to see where the most job growth has occurred.

See that the the vast bulk of the job losses were in the auto sector with virtually every other scetor showing growth?

If it were the provincial govt's fault and not a particular industries fault then you wouldn't see that pattern.

As for your ad-hominem attack whereby you can't defeat the argument so you instead attack me well thats just you admitting you are defeated.

I live in Ontario and for longer then you.

You are done. 'nuff said.




there doing a great job ? then why is the province dead last in economic growth and many other indicators . wouldn't these all be a concern ?

and no the province is not doing great , its surviving but is bleeding jobs .

i don't know what riding you live in i simply had doubts as to where you lived and if you actually lived here .

but i stand by my comments that dalton mcguinty is doing a bad job and leading the province no where at all .

Author:  ryan29 [ Mon Mar 24, 2008 4:10 pm ]
Post subject: 

and to close if dalton mcguinty and ontario were doing great then wouldn't we not be having this discussion ?

and wouldn't the td bank be instead puting out reports that said it was doing great instead of the opposite ?

Author:  DerbyX [ Mon Mar 24, 2008 4:47 pm ]
Post subject: 

ryan29 ryan29:
DerbyX DerbyX:
ryan29 ryan29:

question for derby why do you go so far to defend this liberal government ?

do you even live in ontario ? i have suspiousions that you do not and in fact live in another province . but correct me if i'm wrong .


You are wrong. You are always wrong.

I'm defending my provincial gov't because its doing a great job.

You are desperately trying to blame them for conditions beyond their control. You were wrong about job losses and were busted. You were wrong about wage estimate and were busted.

You keep claiming that Dalton McGuinty is responsible for the auto sectors poor preformance and subsequent plant lay-offs but have no facts to support it other then your desire to blame the Liberals for everything.

You are obviously ignorant to all the related plant closures in multiple US states attesting to the problem is industry wide and not any result of punitive Ontario conditions.

You ignore the fact that unemployment has gone down, every year for the last 5 years. We have posted the stats concerning job growth which you ignore in favour of "your stats" whereby your personal view of help-wanted posters in Timmies locations.

http://www.gov.on.ca/GOPSP/en/graphics/134096.pdf

Scroll down to page 6 to see where the most job growth has occurred.

See that the the vast bulk of the job losses were in the auto sector with virtually every other scetor showing growth?

If it were the provincial govt's fault and not a particular industries fault then you wouldn't see that pattern.

As for your ad-hominem attack whereby you can't defeat the argument so you instead attack me well thats just you admitting you are defeated.

I live in Ontario and for longer then you.

You are done. 'nuff said.




there doing a great job ? then why is the province dead last in economic growth and many other indicators . wouldn't these all be a concern ?

and no the province is not doing great , its surviving but is bleeding jobs .

i don't know what riding you live in i simply had doubts as to where you lived and if you actually lived here .

but i stand by my comments that dalton mcguinty is doing a bad job and leading the province no where at all .


Dead last? Prove it. Even Dinos tables showed Ontario was in the middle.

You keep posting that the province is bleeding jobs yet you keep ignoring the fact that its almost entirely in the auto manufacturing sector, a sector thats weak all over the continent.

We keep gaining jobs. Good jobs. I've posted the data tima and time again. I posted the data showing that in the top categories where we gained jobs they are very high paying jobs.

Unemployment is going down, not up. Thats job creation at work.

More doctors, nurses, and teachers are being employed.

It looks like the person who doesn't actually live here is you because you haven't a clue as to what is going on in the province.

On yer bike there skippy. All the real indicators prove it that Dalton is doing a great job amidst economic conditions that he cannot personally change.

Sorry for your luck. :lol:

Author:  dino_bobba_renno [ Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:33 pm ]
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Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner. I'm on the road again and the manager of the hotel I'm at couldn't quite wrap his head around the fact that it wasn't MY computer that wasn't working. Dumb ass unplugged his router and forgot to plug it back in. Took him damn near all day to figure it out. Sheesh some people I tell ya.

Anyways. Back to the conversation. :D
DerbyX DerbyX:

No. Ontario's GDP isn't shrinking

DerbyX DerbyX:
Real GDP growth:

2005 2.9
2006 1.9
2007 1.8
2008 2.3


Yes it is shrinking in relation to the rest of Canada but it is also shrinking when you look at Ontario by itself. And just a note, I'm talking about growth here not Ontario's GDP as a whole. If their GDP fell then I don't think we'd be sitting here discussing it as it would be pretty obvious that something was terribly wrong.

By your own numbers you show that. 2.9, 1.9, 1.8. I'm not even going to bother with the 2.3 because it's way to early to even look at it. Where did you even find that number? It's not even the end of the first quarter yet!

DerbyX DerbyX:
Ontario's GDP is still growing but at a slower rate which can be related directly to the soft auto sector.


I agree. So because the auto sector is struggling I guess the best idea is to punish other industries not related to manufacturing with a 2% premium on corporate taxes. :roll: Why not lower the tax rate for all industry to what the manufacturing rate is to encourage others to pick up where the auto sector is hurting?

DerbyX DerbyX:
Can you provide evuidence that McGuinties strategies are causing more harm then good without resorting to the baseless assumption ryan always makes?.


No, but I can show a correlation to provinces who lowered their tax rates compared to their growth.

Can you provide evidence that McGuinty's strategies are working?


$1:
Can you show with evidence that its Mcguinty's fault that Americans are buying less cars? Remember that we can show lacklustre sales are behind plant closures more then any other factors which is why for every plant closing in Ontario, at least 3 or 4 close in the US.


Ya, so why not look else where to stimulate growth and institute policies that will encourage them to come to Ontario? You mentioned giving credit to McGuint for phasing out the capital tax. It's a good start!

Why continue propping up the auto sector at the expense of other industries? Look else where young man! Ontario has a hell of a lot more to offer than it's auto manufacturing sector. Lower those taxes and help other sectors see that instead of having them look to BC, Sask, and AB because their tax rates are way lower.

DerbyX DerbyX:
In short, Ontario is doing better then the complaints you are hearing about. The auto sector has always wielded much power in Ontario and they want financial help so they loudly complain about doomsday scenarios.


Ya, but the doom and gloom makes for good ratings for the news networks. Of course it's a bit over board but there still is some truth to it.

I’m gonna have to run here. I have to be up at 3:30 (yes, AM 8O ).

Author:  DerbyX [ Tue Mar 25, 2008 6:38 am ]
Post subject: 

dino_bobba_renno dino_bobba_renno:
Yes it is shrinking in relation to the rest of Canada but it is also shrinking when you look at Ontario by itself. And just a note, I'm talking about growth here not Ontario's GDP as a whole. If their GDP fell then I don't think we'd be sitting here discussing it as it would be pretty obvious that something was terribly wrong.

By your own numbers you show that. 2.9, 1.9, 1.8. I'm not even going to bother with the 2.3 because it's way to early to even look at it. Where did you even find that number? It's not even the end of the first quarter yet!


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ca ... ic_product

Yet GDP growth is what we are discussing. Ontario's GDP is far larger then all the other provinces. In 2006 it was more then 50% larger then QC's, the 2nd largest in Canada and over 70% larger the Alberta. It grew about 11% between 2001 and 2006 and accouned for 35% of the total GDP growth Canada wide.

Now when you compare values on a per capita basis it gets flipped and Ontario looks weaker simply because of its far greater population. The smaller population in the western provinces coupled with very strong energy sectors means its easier for them to post a larger % growth. Remember though that because Ontarios GDP is so much larger that a 1.3% growth translates to a larger GDP amount growth then the western provinces.

However you slice it though, its still upward growth by a large amount. If things were as bad as people were making them out to be then it would be negative growth.

$1:
I agree. So because the auto sector is struggling I guess the best idea is to punish other industries not related to manufacturing with a 2% premium on corporate taxes. Why not lower the tax rate for all industry to what the manufacturing rate is to encourage others to pick up where the auto sector is hurting?


They are picking up, and quite well as a matter of fact.

http://www.2ontario.com/welcome/oolf_303.asp
http://www.2ontario.com/welcome/oolf_309.asp
http://www.gov.on.ca/GOPSP/en/graphics/134096.pdf (page 6)

Aside from a minor job loss in (snicker) natural and applied science (get a real degree losers) all job loss comes from the manufacturing sector and those job losses are laid entirely at the auto sectors feet.

As you said about the US, corpoarate taxes up here can be reduced through various means also. Its interest rates that drive growth just as much not to mention confidence in the global economy. 2 out of 3 are beyond Daltons control.

Those other industries got the subsidies when they were struggling too.

$1:
No, but I can show a correlation to provinces who lowered their tax rates compared to their growth.

Can you provide evidence that McGuinty's strategies are working?


Ok. Provide evidence that lower corporate tax rates (lower then Ontarios) translated directly to prospertity for those provinces.

To that I would like to point out that when Dion was preaching deeper tax cuts to both the corporate rate and personal income rate vs GST he was ridiculed for it. In addition, the Liberals from '93 all the way up to Harpers inaguration kept dropping the corporate tax rates yet somehow that act was never mentioned as a factor in their success.

As for evidence about Daltons strategies I will point to the strong job growth in every other sector besides the auto sector as proof.

In addition, I will point out that the weakness in the auto sector is largely due to a downturn in US car sales. At least half of the plant closures up here are for parts manufacturing for cars down south. Its not Daltons fault that they can't sell more cars.

$1:
Ya, so why not look else where to stimulate growth and institute policies that will encourage them to come to Ontario? You mentioned giving credit to McGuint for phasing out the capital tax. It's a good start!

Why continue propping up the auto sector at the expense of other industries? Look else where young man! Ontario has a hell of a lot more to offer than it's auto manufacturing sector. Lower those taxes and help other sectors see that instead of having them look to BC, Sask, and AB because their tax rates are way lower.


Again, they are. They have good growth in a lot of high paying areas. I doubt that you would see much greater growth then this even if he eliminated taxes. Taxes have a diminishing return for both lowering and raising. At some point raising taxes higher will mean less income as will lowering taxes.

Flaherty should know that because his tax policies helped leave us an extra 5.6 billion in debt.

I'd like you to ask yourself if you are criticizing Dalton based on his actual performance or because he is a Liberal?

Remember that you have only a guess concerning any potential growth (if any) in other sectors while he has complete knowledge of exactly how much money he will lose from the tax breaks your are touting.

In the face of a worsening US recession Dlaton has to choose between gauranteed tax revenue vs the potential for growth.

Author:  Wally_Sconce [ Tue Mar 25, 2008 11:46 am ]
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DerbyX DerbyX:

... while he has complete knowledge of exactly how much money he will lose....


Government with complete knowledge?

ROTFL

Author:  uwish [ Tue Mar 25, 2008 12:26 pm ]
Post subject: 

Derby the Ont economy is on shaky ground, since there has been virtually the same government in for a number of years it put the issues squarely on their head. Yet you seen to be of the opinion that they can do no wrong?

The numbers don't lie, that province is in worse shape now than it was 5 years ago...

get past partisanship and look!

Author:  sandorski [ Tue Mar 25, 2008 3:01 pm ]
Post subject: 

uwish uwish:
Derby the Ont economy is on shaky ground, since there has been virtually the same government in for a number of years it put the issues squarely on their head. Yet you seen to be of the opinion that they can do no wrong?

The numbers don't lie, that province is in worse shape now than it was 5 years ago...

get past partisanship and look!


The problems are beyond the Ontario Governments control.

Author:  DerbyX [ Tue Mar 25, 2008 4:49 pm ]
Post subject: 

uwish uwish:
Derby the Ont economy is on shaky ground, since there has been virtually the same government in for a number of years it put the issues squarely on their head. Yet you seen to be of the opinion that they can do no wrong?

The numbers don't lie, that province is in worse shape now than it was 5 years ago...

get past partisanship and look!


Prove it.

When the Liberals were in charge federally and the PCs provincially then all blame was the responsibility of the Liberals. Now that the roles are reversed suddenly the responsibility last entirely with the provincial Liberals.

Thats real fair.

Now put your evidence where your blind partisanship is.

Job growth: a net 500000 jobs in the last 5 years.
Average wage: Average wage of jobs added over $19/hr.
GDP growth. 11% in the last 5 years.

There has been 700000 jobs lost in the auto sector and they are the ones shouting about doomsdat scenarios because they can gov't bailouts that way. These jobs lost are due to global market conditions and are beyond Daltons control to fix.

The facts beat your partisan option easily.

Author:  Wally_Sconce [ Tue Mar 25, 2008 5:19 pm ]
Post subject: 

global market, eh?

the provincial market is beyond Daltons control to fix. The man is a useless idiot.

Author:  dino_bobba_renno [ Tue Mar 25, 2008 9:15 pm ]
Post subject: 

DerbyX DerbyX:
Ok. Provide evidence that lower corporate tax rates (lower then Ontarios) translated directly to prospertity for those provinces.


Will do when I get back home. I have some info on my other puter and I don't really feel like searching for it so I'll pick this up when I get back. But I do want to address two comments you made.

DerbyX DerbyX:
To that I would like to point out that when Dion was preaching deeper tax cuts to both the corporate rate and personal income rate vs GST he was ridiculed for it. In addition, the Liberals from '93 all the way up to Harpers inaguration kept dropping the corporate tax rates yet somehow that act was never mentioned as a factor in their success.


If the prvious Liberal government did well then kudo's for them. Maybe consider re-electing them.

If Dalton was criticized for his remarks pertaining to the gst cut he probably deserved it. The GST cut was targeted to help reduce the personal tax burden. Businesses don't pay GST so reducing federal corporate tax rates would have completely missed the mark. Dalton would have been better off arguing to cut personal taxes instead as at least that position would have made sense.

DerbyX DerbyX:
I'd like you to ask yourself if you are criticizing Dalton based on his actual performance or because he is a Liberal?


Your the one turning this into Liberal / Conservative thing not me bud. Do you see me taking issue with British Columbia or Quebec (mind you Quebec's small business tax rate is outrageous)? The reason I haven't because they have all lower corporate tax rates than Ontario and both are experiencing better growth due in large part to the decisions made by their Liberal governments.

Author:  DerbyX [ Wed Mar 26, 2008 5:50 am ]
Post subject: 

$1:
Will do when I get back home. I have some info on my other puter and I don't really feel like searching for it so I'll pick this up when I get back. But I do want to address two comments you made.


OK. Please bare in mind 2 things. 1) The lower taxes must be proven to spur a net gain in buisness to offset lost revenue.

2) As you posted about the US, the listed tax rate isn't the whole story when buisnesses have a whole slew of write-offs and tax defferment options.

$1:
If the prvious Liberal government did well then kudo's for them. Maybe consider re-electing them.

If Dalton was criticized for his remarks pertaining to the gst cut he probably deserved it. The GST cut was targeted to help reduce the personal tax burden. Businesses don't pay GST so reducing federal corporate tax rates would have completely missed the mark. Dalton would have been better off arguing to cut personal taxes instead as at least that position would have made sense.


Do you mean Dion? The GST was meant as a vote-grabber. An income tax cut is always better then a sales tax cut because with an income tax cut you save it all up front but with a sales tax cut you only save if you spend money.

$1:
Your the one turning this into Liberal / Conservative thing not me bud. Do you see me taking issue with British Columbia or Quebec (mind you Quebec's small business tax rate is outrageous)? The reason I haven't because they have all lower corporate tax rates than Ontario and both are experiencing better growth due in large part to the decisions made by their Liberal governments.


My question was a fair one. QC isn't experiencing gang-buster growth by anymeans and if there is ant province that is unfairly benefitting from equalization then its QC.

I disagree with you that Ontario's lack of growth is based on decisions made by Daltons crew. I have already showed that the good growth is being partially offset by the auto sector and the difficulties there are simply not something that he can fix.

Author:  ryan29 [ Wed Apr 30, 2008 8:12 am ]
Post subject: 

Is Ontario heading towards have-not status?
Updated Tue. Apr. 29 2008 10:36 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

A report by the TD Bank Financial Group handed residents of Ontario a rather dire prediction on Tuesday.

Their province may soon achieve "have-not" status. The report cites the strong dollar, high energy rates, and increasing commodity prices as factors that may qualify Ontario for equalization transfers by 2010 -- and perhaps even as early as next year.

It's the opposite story for Newfoundland and Labrador, which will change from a have-not to have-province. Record oil prices have set the region up for a forecasted $544-million surplus. Next year, it will get off the equalization system for the first time since Newfoundland entered Confederation in 1949.

Although Ontario's manufacturing and export sectors are expected to face tougher economic times in the months ahead because of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, the province's possible have-not status in the future will likely be due to strong economies in other parts of the country.

Nonetheless, a drop to the have-not ranks would be a psychological blow, said TD chief economist Don Drummond.

"It gives the signal that Ontario is not the mighty king of the economy anymore .... (That) it's one of the weaker partners. But again, it's not so much Ontario's being weak as the other provinces are really roaring along," Drummond said.

Ontario's finance minister says he doesn't begrudge other parts of Canada from doing well, but Ottawa needs to take steps to make sure the equalization system is fair.

"God bless those provinces that have an abundance of resource wealth," said Dwight Duncan on CTV Newsnet's Mike Duffy Live.

"TD points out in their report quite correctly that over the past 5 years that Ontario has enjoyed relatively good growth -- about three per cent on average -- but it cannot keep pace with the rising commodity prices."

Duncan said the equalization formula needs to be reworked "so that we don't kill the goose that lays the golden egg."

Canada's equalization system -- which is entrenched in the Constitution -- allows Ottawa to address fiscal disparities between provinces through transfer payments from richer to poorer provinces. The payments allow less prosperous provinces to provide similar social and public services to those found in richer provinces.

The formula for determining what constitutes a have-not province was recently changed. Previously, an average from only five provinces -- which did not include oil-rich Alberta -- had been used to set a benchmark for fiscal capacity of a particular province.

Now, a province's average fiscal capacity is determined by figures from all 10 provinces. With the inclusion of Alberta, the average benchmark for all provinces has been raised. It's under the new formula that Ontario may fall below the average cutoff.

However, the government may keep Ontario from have-not status by again altering the equalization formula, as it did in 1970s when rising commodity prices drastically affected the province's economy.

Ontario's premier says the new system is flawed. Dalton McGuinty noted that Ontario sends billions more to Ottawa than it gets back.

"How is it that we can be a have-not province if we're sending $20 billion annually to the rest of the country?'' McGuinty asked in the province's legislature.

"I think that tells us something about the (equalization) formula.''

The federal Tories say the Ontario Liberals need to stop pointing fingers.

"Ontario has to be on the cutting edge (of) smart fiscal policies so that businesses will headquarter there (and) make investments there. (They) should eliminate capital taxes, reduce provincial income taxes," Industry Minister Jim Prentice said on Mike Duffy Live.

With a report by CTV's Robert Fife in Ottawa and files from The Canadian Press


http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/s ... hub=Canada


so all of us with suspions that the ontario economy is not doing that good aren't crazy after all according to the td bank

Author:  sasquatch2 [ Wed Apr 30, 2008 8:50 am ]
Post subject: 

One factor that is not helping Ontario is the fact that McSquinty is owned by the teachers unions---a signifigant expense. He gives them whatever they want and only once balked to then capitulate.
Tax and spend....

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