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China's first aircraft carrier enters service
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Author:  Jonny_C [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: China's first aircraft carrier enters service
BartSimpson BartSimpson:

I can see China risking a war for a myriad of reasons...


I can't quarrel with that list. It's quite plausible.

It comes down to what we would call that irrational moment when the Chinese would throw the dice. Much easier for them than for a democracy.
Author:  BartSimpson [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 4:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: China's first aircraft carrier enters service
Gunnair Gunnair:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
The USA now is getting involved in the Senkaku Islands issue and taking Japan's side in it, too.

http://nation.time.com/2012/09/30/big-u ... -what-for/


That's a relief. Hopefully they do better against the Chinese than the Jihadis.

Edit - I need an iPhone 5 with that bigger screen!


You're just in full-on a$$hole mode today, aren't you? What's up? Someone peed in your poutine or something?
Author:  Public_Domain [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 4:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: China's first aircraft carrier enters service
I wonder if the Chinese invade Alaska before the nukes start flying.
Author:  Gunnair [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 4:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: China's first aircraft carrier enters service
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Gunnair Gunnair:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
The USA now is getting involved in the Senkaku Islands issue and taking Japan's side in it, too.

http://nation.time.com/2012/09/30/big-u ... -what-for/


That's a relief. Hopefully they do better against the Chinese than the Jihadis.

Edit - I need an iPhone 5 with that bigger screen!


You're just in full-on a$$hole mode today, aren't you? What's up? Someone peed in your poutine or something?


I don't like poutine and it appears you're are taking yourself too seriously again. You shouldn't... not many else do either. :lol:

I'm just poking fun at the cartoon you are today, that's all... :wink:
Author:  bootlegga [ Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: China's first aircraft carrier enters service
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Jonny_C Jonny_C:
The China/Japan tension at the moment over those islands is disquieting, but I just can't see China risking a war with Japan.


I can see China risking a war for a myriad of reasons. Here are a few and not in any particular order:

* Sheer arrogance. A commodity that is not in short supply in China these days.

* They'll risk war with Japan over the Senaku Islands in the hopes that the Japanese will cede the islands instead of going to war over them. High stakes poker at the global level.

* Intelligence failures. The Chinese will overestimate their capabilities and underestimate Japan's. Wrongfully assuming that Japan is weak in some fashion could lead China to do some things it otherwise would not dare.

* Intimidating Japan and winning with the Senkaku Islands will scare Vietnam, Phillipines, Brunei, Indonesia, and etc. in giving in to Chinese demands in the South China Sea.

* Because risking a war to secure resources relatively close to China will serve as an object lesson to Canada, Norway, and Denmark as China pursues their territorial claims in the Arctic. Consequently I see the issue of the Senkaku Islands as the first battle for the Arctic.


There are some valid points in there, but I think you missed the most obvious - stir up nationalism to detract from their shaky economic problems right now. That's almost always the reason dictatorships start wars.

I'm not too worried about China staking a claim to the Arctic - they would be at the end of a very long supply line and I doubt they would be able to do much to us militarily. Even if they sent their nuke boats up there, I doubt the Russians or Americans would let them play in an ocean they each consider their own private lake.
Author:  2Cdo [ Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: China's first aircraft carrier enters service
bootlegga bootlegga:
BartSimpson BartSimpson:
Jonny_C Jonny_C:
The China/Japan tension at the moment over those islands is disquieting, but I just can't see China risking a war with Japan.


I can see China risking a war for a myriad of reasons. Here are a few and not in any particular order:

* Sheer arrogance. A commodity that is not in short supply in China these days.

* They'll risk war with Japan over the Senaku Islands in the hopes that the Japanese will cede the islands instead of going to war over them. High stakes poker at the global level.

* Intelligence failures. The Chinese will overestimate their capabilities and underestimate Japan's. Wrongfully assuming that Japan is weak in some fashion could lead China to do some things it otherwise would not dare.

* Intimidating Japan and winning with the Senkaku Islands will scare Vietnam, Phillipines, Brunei, Indonesia, and etc. in giving in to Chinese demands in the South China Sea.

* Because risking a war to secure resources relatively close to China will serve as an object lesson to Canada, Norway, and Denmark as China pursues their territorial claims in the Arctic. Consequently I see the issue of the Senkaku Islands as the first battle for the Arctic.


There are some valid points in there, but I think you missed the most obvious - stir up nationalism to detract from their shaky economic problems right now. That's almost always the reason dictatorships start wars.


Gulf War 1. Saddam invades Kuwait.

$1:
I'm not too worried about China staking a claim to the Arctic - they would be at the end of a very long supply line and I doubt they would be able to do much to us militarily. Even if they sent their nuke boats up there, I doubt the Russians or Americans would let them play in an ocean they each consider their own private lake.


Yep.
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