[Motorcycleboy]

This will piss off the petulant Ottawa Press Gallery, Rev Blair and DerbyX, but Mike Duffy's political show on CTV has just announced the results of a new Decima poll released today.

Conservatives: 41%

Liberals: 26%

NDP: 19%

That would give the CPC a majority if an election were called today.

And that's despite the fact that the media has declared war on Harper over his communications policies. Just goes to show something us Cons have known for years. The Liberal media in Ottawa is out of touch with the Canadian public.

Now, if we can just ensure the Libs are dumb enough to choose Bob Rae as their leader! That would allow us to remind Ontario voters of just how fucked up the NDP government he ran in the early 90's was, while linking it to today's Federal Libs!

A Conservative wet dream if ever there was one!

[Canadaka]

I think YOU are out of touch with the Canadian public.

[Motorcycleboy]

lily lily:

Maybe my math is a bit off, but isn't 26 + 19 > 41?

And what about the Bloc... what are their numbers?

I don't know them yet, it's just been on the 6:00 o'clock news. Don't worry, I'm sure it'll be in tomorrow's papers and someone will link to them.

[Motorcycleboy]

Canadaka Canadaka:

I think YOU are out of touch with the Canadian public.

Well, judging by the polls, a pretty fair chunk of them seem to agree with me.

If I were a member of the Liberal Party of Toronto...er..Canada, I'd be polishing up my resume!

[BartSimpson]

41% is not a majority. However, if the Liberals and the NDP seriously fracture then that makes for an effective plurality. This is the give and take of the Parliamentary system: you get everyone represented, but you don't always have someone clearly in control.

[BartSimpson]

Avro Avro:

I find it interesting when people believe polls and when they don't.

This comes as no surprise of course.

I agree. Frankly, I'm more suspect of polls that are in my favor as they are sometimes intended by the opposition to lull my side of an issue into complacency.

Other than the poll taken on election day I tend to take the other polls with a grain of salt and a measure of suspicion.

[IcedCap]

So 26% would still rather vote for a party without a leader... hmmmm

[Motorcycleboy]

Here we go, read it and weep;

$1:

Tories flirting with majority popularity: poll
Updated Wed. Apr. 26 2006 5:32 PM ET

Canadian Press

OTTAWA -- A new poll says the Conservatives jumped to a substantial lead in popularity over the Liberals and are now inching into majority-government territory.

A Decima Research survey says Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Tories stood at 41 per cent support -- a level that could be enough to win a majority government.

Decima finished polling voters last Sunday -- before the controversy began over the government's handling of the deaths of four Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan.

The poll suggests the Liberals languished 15 points behind the Conservatives at 26 per cent support, while the NDP had the backing of 19 per cent of respondents.

Decima's surveys suggest the Tories have steadily gained support since winning a minority mandate in the Jan. 23 election with 36 per cent of the votes cast.

The telephone poll of 1,002 Canadians was conducted April 20 to 23, and has a 3.1 per cent margin of error, 19 times out of 20.

[Jaime_Souviens]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

41% is not a majority. However, if the Liberals and the NDP seriously fracture then that makes for an effective plurality. This is the give and take of the Parliamentary system: you get everyone represented, but you don't always have someone clearly in control.

Well, in general, there's always a Left and a Right, and statistical odds being what they are, half the country will always be to the Left of whatever it is the other half the country is to the Right of.

If you have a divided right, (Canada in the 90's), they'll never be a majority party. Now, with a divided Left, (Lib and NDP) they will never be a majority party.

As long as Professional class Leftists remain aloof in their own party, the NDP, the Conservatives are almost guaranteed the government.

[Streaker]

IcedCap IcedCap:

So 26% would still rather vote for a party without a leader... hmmmm

Precisely. Under the circumstances the Liberals are doing just fine.

And this poll doesn't factor in the impact of Harper's very recent attempt to sanitise war à la Bush by muzzling the media regarding the four dead in Afghanistan.

[Motorcycleboy]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

41% is not a majority. However, if the Liberals and the NDP seriously fracture then that makes for an effective plurality. This is the give and take of the Parliamentary system: you get everyone represented, but you don't always have someone clearly in control.

I was referring to a Majority Government. That is easily acheivable in Canada's parliamentary system when a party acheives over 40% popular support.

I don't recall a Canadian government that ever won an election with a pure majority of voter support. It's very difficult to do in our 3 party system.

[Jaime_Souviens]

IcedCap IcedCap:

So 26% would still rather vote for a party without a leader... hmmmm

Is that what they said?