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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:00 am
 


Title: Canadian Forces prepping for megathrust earthquake on the West Coast
Category: Military
Posted By: Hyack
Date: 2017-02-21 15:35:25
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:00 am
 


What a fricking joke, the Feds yanked 1 CER out of Chilliwack and 3 PPCLI out of Work Point Barracks years ago. There is effectively no military ground presence in BC except some reserve units. Not sure what the folks in the Senior Service will do to help out on the ground beyond Esquimalt.

I have been involved in the transportation and logistics industry, both land and marine on the best coast for years.

The lower mainland and by extension Vancouver Island has about three days of grub in the stores. The supply chains are set up that virtually all of SW BC's meat and dry goods come from Alberta and produce etc. comes from the US. If the "big one" happens Hwy's 1, 3 and 5 will most likely be catastrophically affected. That means that the entire Lower Mainland will be "beyond" Hope as in no one will be able to get past Hope BC to help out the folks who live there.

Recent snow storms closed parts of those three highways and impacted supply chains.

Ferry terminals will be destroyed especially Tsawwassen as it is built on man made structures on the Fraser River delta. Liquefaction will cause issues if not at the terminal certainly on the long causeway approaching it. Odds are the other major ferry terminals will be out of service as well. That effectively cuts Vancouver Island off from the rest of Canada.

Won't matter anyway as most of the bridges and the Massey tunnel will be rendered unusable. As a result the bulk of the lower mainland (or what is left of it) will be a series of isolated heavily populated islands with no power, water, etc. you get the picture.

Oh I forgot the huge cold storage warehouses that the major grocery store chains use are mostly on Annacis Island which is surrounded by the Fraser River and the only way there is by bridge.

Also the lower mainland relies entirely on pipelines from Alberta and Cherry Point in the US for it's gas and diesel. Not that it matters anyway as the tanker trucks will not be able to get to gas stations to resupply them. The same gas stations that don't have electricity to run their pumps anyway.

So if anyone thinks that the military will be of any effective use in SW BC the first week (or month) or so after a big event, well good luck to you.

I have raised the issue of "post disaster response" and the inability to support the population of BC "beyond" Hope for years.

Another article and nothing will happen as usual.


Last edited by Matlow on Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:18 am, edited 4 times in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:05 am
 


Sorry double clicked


Last edited by Matlow on Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:08 am
 


like most things with the feds, it's really lip service and the illusion of readiness. Canada hasn't been ready for anything like that since WW2.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:28 am
 


At least someone is talking about it. That's better than simply ignoring the problem like most government agencies prefer to do.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:00 am
 


Matlow Matlow:
Sorry double clicked


Hey, not a bad assessment, you only missed that the airport is also built on fill
that will liquefy pretty quick, so they won't be able to airlift stuff in or out either.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:09 am
 


martin14 martin14:
Matlow Matlow:
Sorry double clicked


Hey, not a bad assessment, you only missed that the airport is also built on fill
that will liquefy pretty quick, so they won't be able to airlift stuff in or out either.


Image

Don't forget that the USA is right next door and if TSHTF we'll probably overwhelm you guys with assistance.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:02 pm
 


Matlow Matlow:
What a fricking joke, the Feds yanked 1 CER out of Chilliwack and 3 PPCLI out of Work Point Barracks years ago. There is effectively no military ground presence in BC except some reserve units. Not sure what the folks in the Senior Service will do to help out on the ground beyond Esquimalt.

I have been involved in the transportation and logistics industry, both land and marine on the best coast for years.

The lower mainland and by extension Vancouver Island has about three days of grub in the stores. The supply chains are set up that virtually all of SW BC's meat and dry goods come from Alberta and produce etc. comes from the US. If the "big one" happens Hwy's 1, 3 and 5 will most likely be catastrophically affected. That means that the entire Lower Mainland will be "beyond" Hope as in no one will be able to get past Hope BC to help out the folks who live there.

Recent snow storms closed parts of those three highways and impacted supply chains.

Ferry terminals will be destroyed especially Tsawwassen as it is built on man made structures on the Fraser River delta. Liquefaction will cause issues if not at the terminal certainly on the long causeway approaching it. Odds are the other major ferry terminals will be out of service as well. That effectively cuts Vancouver Island off from the rest of Canada.

Won't matter anyway as most of the bridges and the Massey tunnel will be rendered unusable. As a result the bulk of the lower mainland (or what is left of it) will be a series of isolated heavily populated islands with no power, water, etc. you get the picture.

Oh I forgot the huge cold storage warehouses that the major grocery store chains use are mostly on Annacis Island which is surrounded by the Fraser River and the only way there is by bridge.

Also the lower mainland relies entirely on pipelines from Alberta and Cherry Point in the US for it's gas and diesel. Not that it matters anyway as the tanker trucks will not be able to get to gas stations to resupply them. The same gas stations that don't have electricity to run their pumps anyway.

So if anyone thinks that the military will be of any effective use in SW BC the first week (or month) or so after a big event, well good luck to you.

I have raised the issue of "post disaster response" and the inability to support the population of BC "beyond" Hope for years.

Another article and nothing will happen as usual.


Well thank goodness you have all the answers. ...oh wait no you don't. Might want to leave it to the folks that know the plan.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:38 pm
 


BartSimpson BartSimpson:
martin14 martin14:
Matlow Matlow:
Sorry double clicked


Hey, not a bad assessment, you only missed that the airport is also built on fill
that will liquefy pretty quick, so they won't be able to airlift stuff in or out either.


Image

Don't forget that the USA is right next door and if TSHTF we'll probably overwhelm you guys with assistance.


You guys had to rely on international aid to take care of the aftermath of Katrina, so it's doubtful, as you'll have to deal with damage to Seattle, Tacoma and Bellingham. What people are forgetting is that there is a big airport in Abbotsford that should still be functional.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 2:19 pm
 


ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:
You guys had to rely on international aid to take care of the aftermath of Katrina, so it's doubtful, as you'll have to deal with damage to Seattle, Tacoma and Bellingham. What people are forgetting is that there is a big airport in Abbotsford that should still be functional.



Since the bridges would be out of order, mandatory swimming lessons for getting
across the Fraser.. to Surrey.

Oh, the irony. :lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 2:28 pm
 


ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:
You guys had to rely on international aid to take care of the aftermath of Katrina, so it's doubtful, as you'll have to deal with damage to Seattle, Tacoma and Bellingham. What people are forgetting is that there is a big airport in Abbotsford that should still be functional.


New Orleans response to Katrina was a cluster primarily because local leaders pretended that nothing would ever happen. That idiot Ray Nagin failed to get people to evacuate until the last possible moment. What planning they had fell apart when theory met practice.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... Id=4860776

The US West Coast is much more prepared for disaster because our leaders make a point of telling people to prepare for quakes, fires, floods, etc.

If you folks have a major quake along the Cascadia subduction zone then the US military and local agencies will mobilize. Yes, we're going to take care of Americans first. Of course. But then we'll start looking north.

72 hours after the event we'll be on the ground in Canada.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:27 pm
 


If anything it'll be a naval operation, rather than a grunt one. Aid will be brought to the area(Pacific Northwest and BC) using carriers, AORs and hospital ships. Other operations will be run from Abbotsford, which can accommodate the heavy air tankers and such. The fact that it's 69 m above sea level and miles from the Fraser will help.

$1:
The US West Coast is much more prepared for disaster


Kobe's authorities thought the same thing too, but Mother Nature proved them wrong. I don't think anyone is 'prepared' to handle what they are predicting.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:16 pm
 


ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:
If anything it'll be a naval operation, rather than a grunt one. Aid will be brought to the area(Pacific Northwest and BC) using carriers, AORs and hospital ships. Other operations will be run from Abbotsford, which can accommodate the heavy air tankers and such. The fact that it's 69 m above sea level and miles from the Fraser will help.

$1:
The US West Coast is much more prepared for disaster


Kobe's authorities thought the same thing too, but Mother Nature proved them wrong. I don't think anyone is 'prepared' to handle what they are predicting.


Part of the preparation for a disaster is in the redundancy of infrastructure. As an engineer friend of mine says: Single points of failure usually do.

With the US on the Pacific coast there's a redundancy of first responders that includes the military, state government, county government, local government, and private organizations. We've got lots of airports and can bring to bear a huge amount of resources in the 72 hour timeframe.

Part of the failure with Katrina was that the emergency resources were evacuated from the path of the storm but then failed to come in behind it. Canada's navy was the first military element on scene in New Orleans but the very first organization on the ground was The Samaritan's Purse which was at the time headed by evangelist Pat Robertson. After Katrina no one criticized him anymore for his unusual (bizarre) focus on disaster preparedness.

I guess that's the thing at play here.

On the West coast being prepared for a disaster is 'common sense' because it's the nature of where we live. In the rest of the USA you're paranoid.

I think some of that is in play in Canada because the people in Ottawa and Toronto can't wrap their heads around the idea that a massive quake can occur anywhere in Canada because it's unlikely to happen to them. So why bother planning for a disaster that will never affect them?

To a greater extent I believe that the attitude of the people around Vancouver is similar. They think earthquakes happen to other people.

Well, regardless of what the government plans to do in response to a quake we all have to prepare on our own.

I've got my bug bag ready to go at home for whatever comes. Everyone should do the same because when shit happens it's too late to prepare for it. :|


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:29 pm
 


That's very true Bartman. It's almost like the 'boy who cried wolf' effect where we've all heard the warning so often most people tune it out know. And to an extent, I think people who still realise the potential for a catastrophic quake deep down realise that no matter how prepared we are for the big one, it'll still fuck things up big time.

Most of Vancouver will be in a bad way when it happens especially since the airport and the port will likely be wrecked. Where I live might end up being the focal point of a lot of airlift ops. We have one of the longest runways around, the next ones being off the top of my head in Prince George and then Calgary.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:44 pm
 


xerxes xerxes:
That's very true Bartman. It's almost like the 'boy who cried wolf' effect where we've all heard the warning so often most people tune it out know. And to an extent, I think people who still realise the potential for a catastrophic quake deep down realise that no matter how prepared we are for the big one, it'll still fuck things up big time.

Most of Vancouver will be in a bad way when it happens especially since the airport and the port will likely be wrecked. Where I live might end up being the focal point of a lot of airlift ops. We have one of the longest runways around, the next ones being off the top of my head in Prince George and then Calgary.


One upside for Vancouver is the city upgraded the port to handle the new super container ships and that means the channel can handle US aircraft carriers. Helicopters can operate off of and refuel from those ships and in a pinch their reactors can be tapped to run a portion of the city's electric grid. [B-o]


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