[Scape]

The EU has just released its new demographic projections (pdf, 4 pages)



France and Germany will be on top. Population growth in the EU25 until 2025 will be mainly due to net migration, since total deaths in the EU25 will outnumber total births from 2010.

So, aging population, dependency on a large influx of immigrant workers. Large social programs that are in desperate need of calibration but a population that has become utterly dependent upon them. The debt ratio is still nowhere near as bad as the US but with the inevitable stagflation that is upon us it will slow an otherwise overly bureaucratic system. A crisis in heath care is all but inevitable at this point with the potential for thousands to die off in a breaking but not entirely busted system.

Life is cheap and getting cheaper by the day.

[Tman1]

Man, just saw hwhackers face in my toilet, and I looked at my turd and it said hwhacker.

[Ulidian]

It'll keep the rich Belgians, Snooty Frenchmen and upper class German Volk happy!!!

STOP THE EU NOW!

[cmasta]

I heard that by 2050, Muslims could also be a major minority in Europe

[ManifestDestiny]

You ever poke a pin at a baloon. Thats the EU. Without the UK the EU is shit.

[GreatBriton]

Just look at the steep drops of Germany, France and Italy. The are all old people! that's not good economically.

Britain's demographic situation is much better than that of Germany, France and Italy. They have ageing populations, older than the US and the UK, and their populations and workforces are set to shrink in the coming years.

However, Britain's population and workforce, both of which are the 2nd-largest in the EU after Germany, will still grow over the coming years, which is one reason why Britain's economy is due to overtake Germany as the largest economy in Europe.

I've heard that Italy's population, which is now 58 million, will shrink to only 44 million by 2020. Germany's population of 82 million will shrink to about 70 million between 2020 and 2030.

The prospects for Britain are slightly better. Our population is currently 60 million, the 2nd-biggest in the EU, and it is set to rise to 70 million between 2020 and 2030. After that, it may start to decline slightly, but its decline will come years after the other large EU economies, because we have a younger population. I expect Britain's population to still be the 2nd largest in the EU in about 2030, but having closed the gap on Germany.

In the mid-1980's, Britain had the oldest population out of the G7 nations (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Canada). The US and Canada have always had younger populations, and the large EU countries have always had older populations.

However, in about 20 years' time, Britain will, amazingly, have a YOUNGER population than the US, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and Japan, whereas France, Germany and Italy will still have older populations. And that must be good for the economy.

Britain's economy is expected to grow about 3.5% this year, compared to France's 2.2% and Germany's 0.9% and most of the other countries that have the Euro are also experiencing sluggish growth. Britain has the third lowest unemployment rate in the Western World (after Luxembourg and Ireland), the only G8 country to have suffered no recession since 1997, and we also have the lowest debt burden of the G8 nations.

AND, by about 2030, according to economists GoldmanSachs, Britain will be the only EU country to still be a member of the G7 group of nations.

By that time, only three of the current G7 nations will still be G7 nations - the US, Japan, and the UK.

Anyway, I'm waffling.

[GreatBriton]

UK economy 'set to be biggest in Europe'

British Information Services, 4 August 2004


In a research paper released last month, Christopher Smallwood, chief economic advisor at Barclays Bank, said Britain would soon overshadow Germany as Europe's chief economic powerhouse:

UK ON TRACK FOR ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP OF EUROPE

Figures issued by the International Monetary Fund show that, for the first time in many decades, GDP per head is now higher in the UK than in any of the other major European economies. What is more, research from Barclays indicates the gap in performance is set to widen steadily, so that within the next twenty years and despite its smaller population, the UK will overtake Germany to become the largest economy in Europe.




The IMF figures are shown in Table One. This shows that GDP per head in the UK is $30,200, which compares with $29,200 in Germany and $28,500 in France. Italy and Spain lag further behind. In absolute terms too the UK economy is now larger than all the rest - with the exception of Germany, where a sizeable gap is not surprising since Germany’s population is currently about a third higher than the UK’s. This too however is set to change. Research into the relevant long term trends strongly suggests that the gap is set to close steadily and within a couple of decades vanish altogether, leaving the UK unequivocally the leading economy in Europe.



What is the basis for this surprising claim? The starting point is the observation that a country’s long term rate of economic growth is determined by the growth in its workforce and the growth in the productivity of that workforce. Prospective growth rates can be calculated by projecting working population on the one hand, productivity growth (GDP/head) on the other, and adding the two together. In relation to both of these factors, the UK is relatively well placed.

As the first chart illustrates, the Government Actuary’s Department expects Britain’s workforce to rise slowly over the next 20 years, as the population continues to grow. It will decline modestly in the 2020s, as the population ages, but by 2030 will still be above today’s level. By contrast, Germany’s working population is set to decline steadily from now on, at an accelerating rate, reflecting a collapse in the birth rate over the final quarter of the last century. By 2030, it will have dropped from 56 million to 44 million – a fall of more than 20%.

Germany’s workforce is projected to decline by 0.3% pa during the 2000s, 0.6% pa in the 2010s, and more than 1.5% pa in the 2020s. At present, productivity is struggling to grow by even 1% pa. If this performance were to persist, Germany’s trend growth rate would be less than 0.5% in a few years time, and negative in the 2020s. Hopefully, this won’t be the case. There is obviously growing determination in the country to put things right as the Agenda 2010 program shows. The question is how much can actually be achieved and how quickly.

Radical measures are needed – in Germany but also more widely in Europe – which may involve raising the pension age, increasing the flexibility of labor markets and opening the way to the speedier application of new technologies. But simply to list these measures is to illustrate the mountain Germany has to climb. They involve largely deconstructing the social market economy, which is strongly defended by powerful trade unions. Germany will solve its problems in the end, but rebuilding productivity growth will be a long, slow business.

On productivity, the UK’s position is quite different. Average productivity growth of 2% pa is well established. The Treasury assumes in the name of ‘caution’ that after 2010 productivity growth may drop a shade, perhaps to 1.75% pa to 2030. With the reforms Germany is striving for already in place here, it is difficult to see why this should not be the case.




When we combine these projections, the resulting picture is shown in the second chart. The rise in German GDP shown here credits German governments with making steady progress in raising productivity growth, from a starting-point of less than 1% pa, to 2% pa by the 2020s – a high rate which has not been achieved since the early 1990s. In addition, it assumes that the efforts to increase participation in the labor force will more than counteract the reduction in the numbers of people of working age during this decade, and will offset half the much larger drop which is due to take place in the 2010s. In other words, the reform program largely meets its objectives. By the 2020s however whatever can be done in this respect will have been done, so that the full force of declining numbers makes itself felt. On this basis, long term growth rates for Germany come out at 1.5% pa up to 2010, 1.25% pa in the 2010s, and 0.5% pa in the 2020s.



The UK line assumes 2.5% trend growth until 2010. For the 2010s and 2020s it assumes trend productivity growth of only 1.5% pa – more conservative than Treasury assumptions. This results in GDP growth of around 2% pa during the 2010s, since government actuaries expect an increase in female participation; and of 1.25% in the 2020s as productivity growth is offset by a modest decline in the workforce. The assumptions relating to the UK are deliberately cautious, yet even so the British economy steadily closes the gap with Germany until, early in the 2020s, it becomes bigger than Germany – and thereafter the gap continues to widen in Britain’s favor.


britainusa.com

[DanishViking]

Nice to hear Britain is on top of her game:) Then maybe she can takeover as Europe’s economic locomotive, now that Germany is staling. I sure wouldn’t mind, anything to get the wheels turning again back in old Europe. But is Britain up to the task of leading Europe? Will she ever be able to fill the shoes that Germany hands over?
After all Germany has been the main drive force in Europe for some 40 years! Not to mention having paid and still are for the reunification of Germany and most of the EU budget plus the expansion of the EU! Oh and Germany off course pays for the British EU budget discount!
That seems to bee a lot to ask of a country, that likes to keep its own island, and only wants to bee a member of the club, as long as someone else picks up the tab.
But on the other hand, Britain will probably have more political capital to spend on Europe, having the US to run it’s foreign policy.

Now given all this I still hope things are going to go well for Britain, but the lack of political backbone and interest in European affairs, leaves me with no other choice then to hope for a fast German recovery rather then a British locomotive.

By the way – The British aren’t the only ones who plans to leave the party before it’s their turn to buy a round! So do the Scottish – wonder where they got their inspiration

[Schleihauf]

Thoose are just estimates germany will still be on top. Germany only has one direction to go from here and thats up.

[BartSimpson]

I agree that Germany can only move "up".

Which is why I have always called the EU by it's "truth-in-labeling" name:

The Fourth Reich.

Except it won't be the Jews the Germans go after this time, it'll be the Muslims.

[DanishViking]

I would not be so prejudiced about Germany; they actually treat their immigrant’s a lot better then most European nation.
Denmark actually has the strictest immigration laws in Europe as of now, but the others are catching up.
And due to Germany’s history, Germany will never be the frontrunner in immigration politics.

The Fourth Reich! Well maybe, but this time it will be democratic and a joint European Rieich! Not a German Reich!

But that is still many years from now!

[GreatBriton]

I think the British treat their immigrants better than other European countries do.

In Britain, there is none of that daubing of swastikas on synagogues and mosques like there is in France, Germany and other nations.

[DanishViking]

I don’t know of the exact present situation in Britain, but I do know that the conservatives are trying to make immigration a big issue, witch I will take as an indication of it also being an issue among the general population. And I do know that there is a not insignificant group of rightwing extremist in Britain, as in almost any other European country, including Denmark, Germany and France.

None the less, I don’t even know why I bother writing this – you are obviously brought up in some type of “Blair jügend camp”, where you were tort: everything in Britain is good – and everything outside Britain is bad!

And by some major mistake somebody gave you a free internet hookup!

So do me favor – spread the news - “Britain got the finest whether in the EU!”

[Tman1]

GreatBriton GreatBriton:

I think the British treat their immigrants better than other European countries do.

In Britain, there is none of that daubing of swastikas on synagogues and mosques like there is in France, Germany and other nations.

LOL, yaaaah right buddy.

[Jaime_Souviens]

DanishViking DanishViking:

The Fourth Reich! Well maybe, but this time it will be democratic and a joint European Reich! Not a German Reich!

But that is still many years from now!

Well, gee, that's a relief...

If this one's going to be democratic, I'll bet there will be far fewer gas chambers.


(People are so worried now about Americans... It's Europeans who are always trying to take over the world. --- They would succeed, too, but nobody can get the Frenchmen to wear their uniforms properly...)






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