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BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!
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Author:  herbie [ Wed May 15, 2013 8:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

Short of NDPers polled but not turning up to vote, what other logical explanation is there?
Like I mentioned in another thread, there was not ONE Liberal sign on private property in my whole town - but the Liberals here were almost 2 to 1 in the actual vote count.

Author:  Strutz [ Wed May 15, 2013 9:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

xerxes xerxes:
Turnout was abysmal tonight. 48%. Pathetic.

Horrible but not shocking to me.

In another thread back in February I posted that I'd figured it would be one of the shitiest voter turnouts ever. Had hoped I was wrong but alas... :roll:

If that 48% stands then that just means that the majority of people in BC who are unhappy with the result HAVE NO RIGHT TO BITCH AND WHINE. You had your opportunity to take part in the process. I really don't get why so many people do not vote.

I am more ok with continuing on with the Liberals than I would have been with the NDP getting in, especially if they had won a majority of seats. I really was not expecting anyone to get a majority though but we shall see how things go.

Author:  Zipperfish [ Wed May 15, 2013 9:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

What floors me, as someone with more than a passing interest in statistics, is how teh pollsters got it so incredibly wrong. That's two provincial elections where they have absolutely gotten it wrong.

Did the polling methods change? Or have people changed teh way to respond to polls.

I wonder if people are (rightfully) pissed by accumulating BC Liberal scandals and thus tell pollsters they are voting NDP as a protest thing, but then--whether consciously or unconsciously--chnage their mind at the spectre of a Dix NDP government?

One thing is for sure--Angus-Reid, Ipsos and the rest of themn will be dropping their rates significantly. They were off by about 18 points. I could have done better. I wonder what they pay? Then again, an octopus could have done better.

A little bit relieved though. Dix had a little whiff of the Glen Clark about him.

Author:  ShepherdsDog [ Wed May 15, 2013 9:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

He needed a new deck too?

Author:  andyt [ Wed May 15, 2013 9:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

Zipperfish Zipperfish:
What floors me, as someone with more than a passing interest in statistics, is how teh pollsters got it so incredibly wrong. That's two provincial elections where they have absolutely gotten it wrong.

Did the polling methods change? Or have people changed teh way to respond to polls.

I wonder if people are (rightfully) pissed by accumulating BC Liberal scandals and thus tell pollsters they are voting NDP as a protest thing, but then--whether consciously or unconsciously--chnage their mind at the spectre of a Dix NDP government?

One thing is for sure--Angus-Reid, Ipsos and the rest of themn will be dropping their rates significantly. They were off by about 18 points. I could have done better. I wonder what they pay? Then again, an octopus could have done better.

A little bit relieved though. Dix had a little whiff of the Glen Clark about him.


Advance polls had very good turnout, but Xerxes says overall turnout was only 48%. Wonder if NDP supporters thought it was in the bag and stayed home.

I was hoping for slim NDP majority. But even me, Dix took my breath away a bit when he came out against the Kinder Morgan Pipeline and Coal shipments. It just sounded like he was in NDP job killing mode. And he had no need to say it, just say let the review process proceed and then we'll see. Guess he believed the polls and thought his biggest concern was from the Greens.

4 more fucking years of Crispie Clark. GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGG

Author:  Mowich [ Wed May 15, 2013 9:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

herbie herbie:
Short of NDPers polled but not turning up to vote, what other logical explanation is there?
Like I mentioned in another thread, there was not ONE Liberal sign on private property in my whole town - but the Liberals here were almost 2 to 1 in the actual vote count.


Maybe they just decided to 'fly under the radar?' LOL!

Author:  Mowich [ Wed May 15, 2013 9:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

Zipperfish Zipperfish:
What floors me, as someone with more than a passing interest in statistics, is how teh pollsters got it so incredibly wrong. That's two provincial elections where they have absolutely gotten it wrong.

Did the polling methods change? Or have people changed teh way to respond to polls.

I wonder if people are (rightfully) pissed by accumulating BC Liberal scandals and thus tell pollsters they are voting NDP as a protest thing, but then--whether consciously or unconsciously--chnage their mind at the spectre of a Dix NDP government?

One thing is for sure--Angus-Reid, Ipsos and the rest of themn will be dropping their rates significantly. They were off by about 18 points. I could have done better. I wonder what they pay? Then again, an octopus could have done better.

A little bit relieved though. Dix had a little whiff of the Glen Clark about him.


I was royally choked with the Christy Clark gov and answered several polls saying just that. I had no idea who I was going to vote for up until the last week when the polls looked like the NDP had more than a chance. Remembering what happened to our province under the last dipper gov, I voted for the liberal candidate in my riding.

Author:  Mowich [ Wed May 15, 2013 9:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:
He needed a new deck too?


No, but he apparently lied about the 'deck scandal'.

Author:  Zipperfish [ Wed May 15, 2013 11:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

herbie herbie:
what other logical explanation is there?


A few actually:

New polling methods (online) don't work.
Old polling methods don't work (due to Caller ID, cell phones, etc)
People lie more they used.
Reliance on frequentist (as opposed to Bayesian) statistics
Poor selection of sample
Low sample size
Polls influenced voters in a way the models didn't account for.
Someone has figured a way to game the system.

Lots of stuff there for the pollsters to consider. It's interesting that the poll results were precise (quite close together) but inaccurate (not anywhere near the bulls-eye.

Author:  westmanguy [ Wed May 15, 2013 2:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

Despite my utter joy and jubilation here's my best guess as to what happened...a few factors:

1) The BC Liberals ran a far superior GOTV (Get Out The Vote) campaign and too many BC NDP supporters didn't actually get out to the polls & vote

2) The "free enterprise coalition" was saved. The absolutely horrid campaign of John Cummins and the BC Conservatives brought home most of the federal Conservative British Columbians who had been flirting with the BC Conservatives.

3) Negative advertising works. Voters turn their noses up at it. But, I'm sorry, it does. Positivity doesn't work in BC. Our politics here have always been incredibly polarizing and negative.

4) The Green vote held up. A lot of voters on the left thinking the BC NDP was cruising to victory may have parked their votes in the Greens.

5) Kinder Morgan. This is tied to (4). Dix so stupidly came out against it and it didn't pay off. What it did was gave Christy the ability to jump on the issue and embolden voters' very real fear of NDP job killing economic policies.

6) Incredibly well scripted Liberal/Clark campaign. She was out every day in hard hats, overalls, and always harping on jobs, debt, and the economy. Sure the Liberal record isn't glowing, but the NDP allowed it to be framed like that. We heard little on health care and education from this election, which the NDP is strong on.

7) Clark is an incredible campaigner. When she wasn't be viewed simply as the incumbent Premier and government and pitted directly in comparison to Dix in the context of an election campaign, her confidence numbers soared.

8) "Go with the devil you know" and the "lesser of two evils" factor. The BC NDP is incredibly dysfunctional in this province. They eat their own. They throw away elections so badly. Its sad...

9) Silent "majority" are why the polls were wrong. Critics always yell the loudest. The hatred and vitriol for Premier Clark and the Liberals was all over the place. Liberal voters came back home to the coalition and decided to go down with the sinking ship - but they supported the cause privately.

I cannot tell you how many voters I observed in the last 2 weeks who were either going to (a) stay home, (b) Vote BC Conservative or (c) centrist/apolitical voter planning to go Dix who flopped to Clark in the campaign. People got scared of the NDP when the campaign got framed on the economy.

And a lot of Liberal voters weren't affirming their love of Clark but rather voting to keep the NDP out of office and the hell away from our economy. They likely were ashamed to tell pollsters or their neighbours they'd vote Liberal given the media narrative and how people on the street talk about Christy Clark.

----

At the end of the day, people like my parents quietly went to the polls yesterday and marked their ballots for the BC Liberals. I'm partisan and volunteer but my parents aren't that engaged and care that much. They were never impressed with Clark, and my parents actually voted twice for the Manitoba NDP of Gary Doer in MB because he was a great leader and pragmatic government. But they were scared as hell of the BC NDP and Dix screwing up our future with their incredible anti-resource stances. So my parents, like thousands of British Columbians, kept their mouths shut when their co-workers and friend bashed Christy Clark and maybe even nodded in agreement, but feared the worser alternative and returned the devil we know, and the economy-friendly option back to government.

Its not an overwhelmingly happy narrative or story. Voters acting out of negative intention rather than positive affirmation. But welcome to BC politics.

The other thing that last night proved to me is that the hippie/pot smoking/environmentalist nutcases/latte sipping/yoga/vegan/organic/union/socialist culture that is so in your face in Urban Vancouver is a vocal minority. 50% of voters voted BC Liberal or BC Conservative for the centre-right option. The majority of this province doesn't identify with this sub culture and could plainly see the NDP was beholden to these ideologues who would reap chaos on our prosperity.

End of rant...

Author:  Thanos [ Wed May 15, 2013 3:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

Given the number of incredibly horrible lead-foot drivers in BC (i.e. all of you, jerkies) maybe Clark's popularity shot up after she was filmed running that red light. 8)

Author:  2Cdo [ Wed May 15, 2013 3:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

westmanguy westmanguy:

The other thing that last night proved to me is that the hippie/pot smoking/environmentalist nutcases/latte sipping/yoga/vegan/organic/union/socialist ...

You forgot Birkenstock wearing. :wink:

Author:  Zipperfish [ Wed May 15, 2013 3:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

Thanos Thanos:
Given the number of incredibly horrible lead-foot drivers in BC (i.e. all of you, jerkies) maybe Clark's popularity shot up after she was filmed running that red light. 8)


Lead-foot drivers? Maybe if you could get your RV to at least go 50 km/h in the fast lane. :lol:

Author:  Thanos [ Wed May 15, 2013 4:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

Zipperfish Zipperfish:
Thanos Thanos:
Given the number of incredibly horrible lead-foot drivers in BC (i.e. all of you, jerkies) maybe Clark's popularity shot up after she was filmed running that red light. 8)


Lead-foot drivers? Maybe if you could get your RV to at least go 50 km/h in the fast lane. :lol:


No RV here. That's for old men who wear mesh ballcaps. I speed all the time myself, but I still have nightmares of the time I was on the main road between Vernon and Kelowna doing about 120kmh and still getting tailgated by some of the psychos out there. I'm the only guy who goes to Ft Mac and doesn't complain about Hwy 63 because, thanks entirely to experiences in BC, I've seen much much worse. 8O

Author:  Zipperfish [ Wed May 15, 2013 5:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: BC Votes 2013: Election Results Reaction Thread!

Don't forget about the crazy logging truck drivers.

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