CKA Forums
Login 
canadian forums
bottom
 
 
Canadian Forums

Author Topic Options
Offline
CKA Uber
CKA Uber
 Montreal Canadiens
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 13404
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:11 pm
 


I see that Russia is starting to position themselves for a move on Estonia. This is an entirely different situation than with Crimea ... or even with the Ukraine.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... J620140319

You can see this one coming but that doesn't mean that it is not gravely serious.


Offline
CKA Uber
CKA Uber


GROUP_AVATAR
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 42160
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:22 pm
 


Likely the reason why we`re seeing so much sabre rattling from Russia Sanctions really could do some serious damage, and as I pointed out before, the Russians may threaten to turn off the gas to the West, but if they turn off the cash to Russia, it`ll hurt just as much or more.


Offline
CKA Uber
CKA Uber
 Montreal Canadiens
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 33691
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:37 pm
 


ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:
the Russians may threaten to turn off the gas to the West, but if they turn off the cash to Russia, it`ll hurt just as much or more.


We should really be doing everything to help that along.


Offline
CKA Uber
CKA Uber
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 19841
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:39 pm
 


$1:
Putin's Verdun: While the Crimea Burns, Russia Prepares a Trap for the West in Estonia

Today most of the focus of the international community has been focused on the military actions in the Crimea. Having formally annexed the region yesterday, Russian forces have begun an assault on the remaining Ukrainian forces in the peninsula. After initially vowing resistance, Kiev appears to have thrown in the towel and ordered a withdrawal. This is isn't surprising. Post-referendum, this is largely a mopping up operation.

It is, however, a mopping up operation that is serving the purpose of covering a more ominous development. At the end of my extended piece yesterday comparing current developments to those after Munich, I mentioned that if I were Barack Obama, I would be quite concerned about Latvia. Based on today's ultimatum to Estonia, it appears I was off by one Baltic State.

Putin has both strategic and geopolitical goals right now. The former were completed by securing Russia's access to the basing facilities at Sevastopol permanently. The latter, namely weakening the Western alliance, are still incomplete. Putin's actions in the Crimea went a long way to embarrassing the United States and the EU and demonstrating that they do not run the world as they might have thought, but Ukraine was neither a member of the EU or NATO and therefore outside the defense envelope.

Advisers close to the Kremlin have admitted that one of the long-term goals of the Putin Administration is to bring about the break-up of the Atlantic Alliance and the "Finlandization" of Europe. If this sounds like a fantasy, that's because when written it is. But most aggression in foreign policy is the result of opportunism rather than deliberate planning, and success tends to breed momentum of its own. This was true of Hitler in the 1930s, and it is true of the Kremlin now.

At this point it is abundantly clear that not only are the US and Germany incapable or unwilling to consider a military response to limited Russian provocations, but that any serious economic response, including energy sanctions is unlikely as Berlin and London are putting domestic considerations above European ones. It is equally apparent that if not entirely successful, Russian messaging regarding the status of Russian-speakers within the Crimea and the nature of the new government in Kiev has been at least partially successful, and that messaging is likely to gain in effectiveness as a nationalist reaction to the loss of Crimea sweeps the rest of Ukraine, strengthening the Far Right. That should provide more than enough after the fact justifications for the Russia Today spin machine to swing into action. If Putin is going to move against Europe, now is the time.

That leaves the place. Putin needs three things in a target at this point. First it needs to be of less strategic value than the Crimea so that the arguments for fighting for it are even less. Second it needs to be politically vital, preferably as part of both NATO and the EU so that if the West chooses not to fight for it both organizations will be shattered. Thirdly, Russia's moral case must be so impeccable that in the game of political chess that will precede the Western defeat, Russia at all times maintains at least a moral deadlock if not a moral ascendancy. In effect, he needs an Eastern European Verdun.

Estonia meets all of these criteria. It is poor and geographically isolated. Furthermore, more than a third of its population is Russian, a legacy of Soviet rule, and that minority, unlike that in the Crimea, has legitimate cause for complaint. Soviet rule was imposed with almost unspeakable brutality in 1940, during the course of which nearly 20% of the adult population was deported to Siberia, and the settling of Russians was a deliberate effort by Moscow to destroy the Estonian nation demographically. As a consequence, when Estonia gained independence in 1991, it saw its Russian minority as a fifth column and has treated them accordingly. There is no official discrimination on the basis of ethnicity; but fluency in Estonian is required for state employment, the franchise, higher education, and many jobs in the private sector. A concerted effort has also been launched to challenge the residency of Russian-speakers and to deny them Estonian citizenship.

All of this makes Estonia's position vis-e-vis Russia far weaker than that of Ukraine except for one thing; Estonia is a member of both the EU and NATO. If Russia is able to stir up chaos in the form of riots and unrest within a member of both organizations it will discredit them totally. It makes no sense for Europe to risk destruction to defend Estonia, less than it did over the Ukraine, but the EU and NATO are based on the lie that an attack on one is an attack on all. Putin's goal is to exploit this as a lie; Estonia is Verdun, a strategically worthless target that political factors forced the French army to defend to the death. In this case its Putin's goal to draw NATO and the EU into a battle not of armies, but of political capital, and to destroy that capital in the open fields of the Baltic shore.

Putin of course will move slowly. But the precedent has already been set. The ultimatum gave notice that the Russian Federation will be keeping a close eye on the condition of Russians within Estonia. One can guarantee that their "condition" will rapidly get worse. Expect Russian agents to spread money among unemployed Russians within Estonia in order to organize protests, and Russian special forces to engage in provocations if not outright acts of terror. The goal will be to goad the Estonia government into retaliation; if it does nothing it will effectively lose control of its border regions and internal security; if it cracks down, Moscow will be able to complain of the violence, and have an excuse for intervention. Most likely Moscow will be able to demand that the EU and the United States intervene to deal with the situation, and may even be able to cite EU law in defense of Russian claims. Then the failure of the EU to enforce the protections provided by its own laws, and of the United States to maintain order will act as an excuse for Russia to step into the breech. All will be perfectly legal, and officially at least, Russia will never step down from the moral high ground.

Is this sort of intervention inevitable? Of course not. If there has been one thing that has defined Putin's behavior this year, its the opportunism with which he has pursued objectives. Putin went into the Crimea with a wide range of acceptable outcomes; the situation as it developed, limited resistance in the Crimea, a disappointing lack of unrest in Eastern Ukraine, determined his progress. It makes absolute sense for Putin to force a battle a battle in the Baltic States. If it fails, he can always retreat with limited costs. If however he is successful, he all but break the back of the EU, and reverse two decades of NATO expansion overnight. People thought he was delusional when he stated those goals in yesterday's speech. He may not be as far off from achieving them as people think.

http://www.therestlessrealist.com/2014/03/putins-verdun-while-crimea-burns-russia.html


Offline
Forum Super Elite
Forum Super Elite
 Vancouver Canucks


GROUP_AVATAR
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 2375
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:40 pm
 


Does the EU/West have enough oil/gas reserves to withstand and hold out on any move by Russia to turn off the taps? Definitely disruptive to markets, but I'm just curious (also being Spring as of today) if its something that could be dealt with without too much pain.


Offline
CKA Uber
CKA Uber
 Montreal Canadiens
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 33691
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:47 pm
 


westmanguy westmanguy:
Does the EU/West have enough oil/gas reserves to withstand and hold out on any move by Russia to turn off the taps? Definitely disruptive to markets, but I'm just curious (also being Spring as of today) if its something that could be dealt with without too much pain.



No.


Offline
CKA Uber
CKA Uber


GROUP_AVATAR
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 42160
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:48 pm
 


The EU has access to other gas fields to their north west and we`re basically burning it off in our fields in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Russia really has no other customers as all their pipelines are directed to supplying European markets. Europe needs to reverse their stupid anti nuke policies and start building generating stations. That way they can`t be held hostage by an aggressive Russia....that`s if they can find a backbone and initiate an energy project for domestic sonsumption.


Offline
CKA Uber
CKA Uber
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 19841
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:50 pm
 


Somewhat. There has been a move to diversify oil/gas supplies with increased investment in North Sea gas and oil from N. Africa. Also, the EU has expanded pipelines and stockpiles as well.


Offline
CKA Elite
CKA Elite
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 4751
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:52 pm
 


Can't wait time when Russia will run out of gas and oil.


Offline
CKA Uber
CKA Uber


GROUP_AVATAR
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 42160
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:55 pm
 


There will be some short term pain, but it`s better than to be held hostage by Russia, if it decides to nibble away at eastern Europe again


Offline
Forum Super Elite
Forum Super Elite
 Vegas Golden Knights
Profile
Posts: 2577
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:06 pm
 


ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:
There will be some short term pain, but it`s better than to be held hostage by Russia, if it decides to nibble away at eastern Europe again

Short term for who?

Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Greece, Slovenia, and to a great extent Austria, Poland, and Germany will feel significantly more then 'short-term pain'.

And, that is just for the EU.

Belarus, Serbia, Ukraine, Turkey, and Croatia will also suffer significantly.

All of the above countries will lose between 35% and 100% of their gas...and the electricity generated from a great deal of it (31% for the EU).


Offline
CKA Elite
CKA Elite
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 4751
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:15 pm
 


Today Russian spy was captured in Ternopil, was trying to collect military info.


Offline
CKA Super Elite
CKA Super Elite
 Ottawa Senators
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 7684
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:27 pm
 


Word is the Russians have seized three Ukrainian Navy corvettes that were stuck in Crimea.

Watch Russia outright steal a good chunk of the Navy. Common thugs.


Offline
CKA Uber
CKA Uber
 Montreal Canadiens
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 33691
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:27 pm
 


xerxes xerxes:
$1:
[b]Putin's Verdun:



What a shitty comparison, a million dead from that.

Oh wait, maybe not. :|




Well, as was pointed out before, Estonia will show if the EU and NATO actually mean
something, or if it is just another paper you can wipe your ass with.


Offline
CKA Uber
CKA Uber
 Montreal Canadiens
User avatar
Profile
Posts: 33691
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:29 pm
 


ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:
The EU has access to other gas fields to their north west and we`re basically burning it off in our fields in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Russia really has no other customers as all their pipelines are directed to supplying European markets. Europe needs to reverse their stupid anti nuke policies and start building generating stations. That way they can`t be held hostage by an aggressive Russia....that`s if they can find a backbone and initiate an energy project for domestic sonsumption.


That will take years to develop and ship, unless it's made into some kind of
National Priority by both the US and Canada.
Lots of money waiting to be made though.

The biggest problem with changing things over to electricity is as usual, Germany.
Even fracking, the idiot Krauts are making it impossible.

And they get 75% of their gas from Russia.



xerxes xerxes:
Somewhat. There has been a move to diversify oil/gas supplies with increased investment in North Sea gas and oil from N. Africa. Also, the EU has expanded pipelines and stockpiles as well.


The whole Syria thing has blocked easy access from Arabian gas to the EU.
It's again a question of years. There is a big field between Israel and Cyprus,
needs money to develop it quickly.

$1:
There will be some short term pain, but it`s better than to be held hostage by Russia, if it decides to nibble away at eastern Europe again.


Pain. :)

There is one guy I know in Switzerland who heats his house with oil. Surprising.
My place in Slovakia gets heat and hot water as waste from the NPP nearby, but thats
a minority of places.
Everyone else I know, and that spans 4 - 5 countries across Europe, heats with gas.

Now spring is here, domestic gas consumption will drop with people not needing to
heat so much; but industrial use continues, and Europe is only now just starting
to come out of the recession.

And it isn't a question of well everyone just use space heaters until everyone buys an electric boiler.

In Italy and Spain for example, domestic electrical supply to residential is limited to 3KW per house.

I don't know ( Doc will ;) ) how many amps that converts to, but I'm guessing...

20 amps per house.

Canadian houses have 100 amp or 200 amp service as normal.

So even the idea of converting heating over to electricity is challenging to pull off.


Post new topic  Reply to topic  [ 2612 posts ]  Previous  1 ... 37  38  39  40  41  42  43 ... 175  Next



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests




 
     
All logos and trademarks in this site are property of their respective owner.
The comments are property of their posters, all the rest © Canadaka.net. Powered by © phpBB.