[Whos_Voting_Oil]

Harpers federal forecast for Kyoto compliance meets with skepticism
Thu Apr 19, 5:52 PM
By Dennis Bueckert
OTTAWA (CP) - The Conservative government ran into skepticism Thursday as it released a major study predicting that compliance with the Kyoto Protocol would bring an economic apocalypse.
Even Quebec Environment Minister Line Beauchamp, whose government has been friendly to Ottawa, described the federal study as alarmist. "The assumptions of the scenario are extremely severe," she told a news conference.
The Environment Canada study says the Kyoto emissions-cutting targets for Canada could be met only by introducing a massive $195-per-tonne carbon tax, which would wipe out thousands of jobs and undercut Canadians' quality of life.
Environment Minister John Baird said every Canadian family and business would have to cut greenhouse gas emissions by one third starting in eight months.
"There is only one way to make that happen - the government would need to manufacture a recession," Baird told the Senate environment committee.
Yet Baird said the federal government remains committed to the principles of the Kyoto treaty.
Opposition critics and environmentalists say the study is flawed because it excludes the benefits of cutting emissions, such as reduced energy costs and a more stable climate, and because it limits access by businesses to international emissions credits.
In the Commons, NDP Leader Jack Layton said the report "deliberately deceives the Canadian people about the impact of Kyoto obligations."
Prime Minister Stephen Harper said the real issue is whether any of the opposition parties "have the guts to face reality. The reality is this: You cannot reduce greenhouse gas emissions by one-third and have a positive effect on the Canadian economy.
"This party has no intention of doing anything that is going to destroy Canadian jobs or damage the health of the economy."
The confrontation comes as a Senate committee ponders a Liberal bill that would require the government to meet its commitment under the Kyoto treaty - a six per cent emissions cut from 1990 levels by 2012.
All three opposition parties united to pass the bill in the Commons and it if passes the Senate, the government will have a law on the books that contradicts its policy.
Armed with videos to illustrate his main points at a news conference, Baird said 275,000 Canadians would lose their jobs, gasoline prices would jump 60 per cent and natural gas prices would double.
Liberal environment critic David McGuinty said the study, which does not identify its authors, is skewed because it artificially restricts the use of international emissions trading and ignores the job creation that would come with a new focus on green technologies.
"Of course it's hard to get the job done without tools. That's like saying it would take years to build a subway line with teaspoons."
In a 700-page study published last fall, British economist Sir Nicholas Stern said global warming could shrink the global economy by 20 per cent, but taking action now would cost just one per cent of global gross domestic product.
Baird said the federal study has been reviewed and approved by a number of leading economists, including Don Drummond, chief economist of Toronto-Dominion Bank Financial Group, and Carl Sonnen, president of Informetrica.
"We're talking about ... severely limiting the quality of life," Baird said.
But Baird did not mention that other economists who were asked to review the study came to different conclusions.
"While Canada cannot plausibly meet its Kyoto commitments by domestic action, I think the report overstates the difficulty of implementing policies in the short term," said David Keith, Canada Research Chair in Energy and the Environment at the University of Calgary.
"The difficulty of meeting Kyoto is not an excuse for inaction."
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May said the report is based on assumptions designed to create economic disaster. "This is a trumped-up, bogus study for the purpose of political propaganda and nothing more, and the economists who let their names be attached to it should be ashamed."
Baird denied that the government is scare-mongering: "I'm just giving the information." He said the benefits of cutting emissions were not included because they would develop only in the longer term.
Liberal MP Pablo Rodriguez says the study is intended to frighten Canadians and called its conclusions ridiculous.
Similar scare campaigns crop up whenever environmental reforms are proposed, he said, citing past efforts to curb acid rain or phase out chemicals that attack the ozone layer.
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The claim:
-Environment Minister John Baird said Thursday that a new federal study suggests meeting Canada's commitments under the Kyoto climate accord would hammer the economy, costing thousands of jobs.
The debate:
-The report says that meeting Canada's Kyoto targets would require cutting emissions by one third beginning on Jan. 1, 2008. This would also require a massive carbon tax of $195 a tonne. The government report estimates that this would result in the loss of 175,000 jobs next year.
-A number of prominent economists have reviewed the study and indicated they find its conclusions plausible. But a study by Sir Nicholas Stern, former chief economist of the World Bank, says curbing emissions would cost the world only one per cent of economic output.
-Opposition critics and environmentalists say the report excludes the benefits of cutting emissions, such as avoided climate change, lower energy costs, and new industries based on green technology. Baird said those benefits show up only in the longer term and were excluded for that reason.
-Critics attack the report's assumption that Canada can get no more than a quarter of the emissions credits it needs by purchasing them on the international market. They say international credits now cost $25 a tonne, a fraction of the $195-per-tonne cost cited in the study.
The political context
-Polls consistently show that the environment has become a top voter priority. It had been a point of vulnerability for the Conservatives before the government added the environment to its list of priorities. Prime Minister Stephen Harper blames the Liberals for inaction during their years in power, but he rarely mentions that the Conservatives were vehemently opposed the Kyoto Protocol throughout that period.
-A bill that would require Ottawa to honour its Kyoto commitments has passed the Commons with support from all three opposition parties and is now before the Senate. If passed there, it would put current Conservative policies at loggerheads with federal law.
-The Conservatives showpiece environmental legislation, originally called the Clean Air Act, has been drastically rewritten by the opposition, and also affirms the Kyoto targets. The government is not obliged to call a vote on the bill, but leaving it to languish on the order paper will leave one of the Tories' major election promises unfulfilled.

[sasquatch2]

A LPoC press release for sure....

One problem..............it is build on sand......

The assumption that CO2 is driving climate change and that if so KYOTO could change that.

The valid science points that this is rubbish.

It is indeed "The Great Global Warming Swindle."

This era will be viewed in the future as a bigger scandal than McCarthyism or the sale of Indulgences by the RC Church..

[xerxes]

If you really think that global warming is one giant con, then there really were explosive charges in the WTC.

[sasquatch2]

The climate IS warming following a natural cycle...as it has for millions of years.

Attaching causation to a trace amount of CO2 is as valid as blaming sunsets on street lights.

[Rihx]

the easiest and most inexpensive to deal with CO2 is to simply plant more tree's... and Stop burning down the rainforests...

Its kinda funny in a sad way that these "enviromentalists" dont realize that plants breath CO2

[blue_tory]

Rihx Rihx:

the easiest and most inexpensive to deal with CO2 is to simply plant more tree's... and Stop burning down the rainforests...

Its kinda funny in a sad way that these "enviromentalists" dont realize that plants breath CO2

Nope, enviromentalists decided trees are to blame for global warming this week.or was it last week... I forget. They spew so much crap I can't tell anymore. Whats most amazing though is they still get taken seriously.

[Knoss]

How does the new clean air act deal with HFC's and PFP's?

[Rev_Blair]

$1:

How does the new clean air act deal with HFC's and PFP's?

According to the Conservatives, very well. You should get a hold of your MP and tell him to pass C-30.