[DrCaleb]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

You lost me Doc. What does cooking eggs in a plastic bag have to do with what's happening in a natural weather environment?

Because the temperature to cook eggs is lower than that of the predicted natural environment. That might give some indication as to human survivability.

Sorry to poke at you but there have been no end of climate catastrophes that have been predicted and then failed to occur.

The AGW alarmists are starting to come off like fundie Christians with their never-ending predictions of the Second Coming and The End Times.

It's fine. Poke away. Computer models are all we have right now, and this is what they tell us is a possibility. The more data we feed the models, the more accurate they become. People said the same sorts of things about Y2K, but those of us who did the testing saw just how bad it would have been if we did nothing were the evangelical types who did something similar by shouting it from the rooftops. But because we prepared for it and mitigated it, now they say it was all hype because nothing happened. Catch 22.

That interview I saw with Bill Clinton also had another though I really liked. He had something called 'The Grandfather Test'. It goes like this: If there is a statistic or prediction that 99% (or a large number) of people informed about such things say is likely, show me a Grandfather that would choose the other 1% scenario for his grandchildren. For example, if 99% of safety experts say that car seats will save children's lives, and the risk that they might break their hips or snap their neck is really low; show me a grandfather that will choose to have their grandchildren roll around in the back seat with no seat belts.

Now, show me a Grandfather who would say "A 90%, or 80%, or 75% chance of a 75 degree day in the Middle East (and all that means for the rest of the planet) is such a remote possibility that I will do nothing to change that outcome for my Grandchildren".

We can argue this till we are blue in the face. The fact is that if we start now, it will be very much cheaper to remove any influence we have on the environment before we really start to notice the really bad things predicted by the computer models. And the people for whom doing something now means a loss of profits have been very busy using tactics learnt by Asbestos manufacturers and Tobacco lobbyists to cast doubt on these predictions means the people who believe them to be true are having to become more and more radical to get someone to listen to reason. ¯\(°_o)/¯ Whaddayagunnado?

[Winnipegger]

The CBC article talks about "74 C to 77 C heat index (combined temperature and humidity)". That isn't temperature, it's an artificially calculated index. They're talking about 35°C temperature. I lived temperature between 95°F (35°C) and 100.4°F (38°C). I walked outside for a couple hours. Yes, it was nice to come inside to an air conditioned apartment or restaurant. But I didn't drop dead. Sometimes I would sit on the balcony just to enjoy the heat.

Remember I'm from Winnipeg. I lived through winters where the low at night on cold nights gets to -32°C to -36°C every year. On a particularly cold year, the coldest temperature on the coldest night gets to -40°C; the last time was 2005. And I was a preschool child during the blizzard of 1966; the coldest temperature recorded in this city. It got down to -45°C. And this isn't "wind chill" or "heat index" or any calculated thing, it's actual temperature.

In grades 7 & 8, I delivered the newspaper. Back then the newspaper was delivered in the afternoon, when school let out. When there was a blizzard, I delivered newspapers anyway. I often came home with my fingers so cold they couldn't move, and had no feeling, completely numb. My mother had to remove my gloves because I couldn't move my fingers. They were solid red; at least they weren't white, that would be dead tissue, frostbite. My mother held my hands under lukewarm flowing water to thaw them out. It felt hot. It hurt as my hands regained blood flow. I often cried. My fingers are still sensitive to cold.

Reading some technical stuff... What I experienced was first degree frostbite, sometimes called frostnip. I did not get second degree, which would result in blisters. It says one symptom is fingers can become insensitive to heat and cold, but my fingers are MORE sensitive to cold.

Heat good. Cold bad.

[BartSimpson]

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

That interview I saw with Bill Clinton also had another though I really liked. He had something called 'The Grandfather Test'.

Full stop.

Please don't argue on behalf of science with an anecdote that hails from Arkansas.

You're upsetting Stephen Hawking.

See? He's upset.

[PluggyRug]

Bill Clinton is a result of computer models.

[stratos]

Was Bill's pants up or down during the interview?

Sorry I just couldn't resist.

[N_Fiddledog]

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

Oh, I see. You mean if the Chicken Little scenario of boiling oceans were to actually happen.

No one said anything about oceans. Project much?

I'm not sure what you mean? You can't mean psychological projection, because you would be using the term incorrectly. I'm making no hysterical exaggerations of possibilities here.

You must mean this definition of "project": an estimate or forecast of a future situation or trend based on a study of present ones:

So not really. Not me. It's more like I'm noticing the prediction in the article to be a "Chicken Little, boiling oceans kind of projection of possible future heat" offered up in the article. On my part it would be an abstract term used to describe an exaggerated possibility of heat catastrophe to anybody capable of understanding abstract terms.

[N_Fiddledog]

So again if we're talking about current real temperatures then:

$1:

Cold temperatures kill about 20 times as many people worldwide as hot temperatures do,

And that;s from our state run media.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/cold-deem ... -1.3081053

So it's gotta be true right?

[BartSimpson]

But it MIGHT happen that the earth will eventually get so hot that all life will end! And it MIGHT happen if we don't DO SOMETHING!!!

I'm going to go buy a Volkswagen TDI...it's got a clean diesel engine and when I drive it around I can sneer at everyone because I'm doing my part to SAVE THE PLANET!!! and they're not.

[N_Fiddledog]

I got interested in the whole trying to guess what kind of temperatures they're actually talking about.

It's hard to figure, because the actual study is behind a paywall.

I think they're insinuating humidex which is, I think, a way of calculating real heat measurement and how humidity feels.

There's a calculator gizmo for doing that here:

http://www.ohcow.on.ca/uploads/heat-str ... lator.html


They mention Doha. Qatar's record real world temperature record for hottest ever is 50.6C. The study projects temps around 76C, but I think that's supposed to be a humidex type calculation of temperature and humidity together.

Here's Doha's average humidity:

http://www.qatar.climatemps.com/humidity.php

Here's Doha's current Temperature:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/last-2 ... %20refresh

Here's a temperature graph for Doha. Blue is average low. Red is average high.



https://weatherspark.com/averages/32878 ... whah-Qatar

So if you put all that together, I still think they're indulging in some computer modeled, catastrophe fantasy.

[bootlegga]

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

$1:

According to Wikipedia, the hottest temperature ever recorded was 57c (134F) in Death Valley, in 1913. 76c (170F) might not seem like much of a leap from 57c, but the cities Doha, Abu Dhabi and Bandar Abbas are all coastal cities which experience substantial Summer rainfall.

Summer rainfall and storms are natural air conditioning. When temperatures soar, evaporation, convection and storm activity remove vast amounts of excess heat from the surface and transport the heat straight up to the edge of space. The heat laden water vapour keeps rising until it condenses – the vapour simply punches straight through the bulk of the world’s greenhouse blanket, soaring into the upper reaches of the troposphere, until it finds a height at which it can dump its vast store of heat.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/27/c ... e-by-2100/

The Sous Vide method of cooking an egg is to heat it to 62 degrees for 30 minutes. Predicted temperatures for the Gulf are 70C - 74C.

As heat increases, so does relative humidity. At some point, water doesn't precipitate anymore.

No doubt.

Whoever wrote that "rainfall is natural air conditioning" has never lived in a tropical zone - when it rains, the humidity soars and the temperature becomes less bearable, not more.

[DrCaleb]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

That interview I saw with Bill Clinton also had another though I really liked. He had something called 'The Grandfather Test'.

Full stop.

Please don't argue on behalf of science with an anecdote that hails from Arkansas.

You're upsetting Stephen Hawking.

See? He's upset.

You forget, Bill Clinton tripled funding to the National Academy of Sciences, put billions into the Human Genome project (that has had untold positive repercussions on science and medicine) and approved funding for the Hubble Space Telescope.

Don't let partisanship get in the way of fact!

[DrCaleb]

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

Oh, I see. You mean if the Chicken Little scenario of boiling oceans were to actually happen.

No one said anything about oceans. Project much?

I'm not sure what you mean? You can't mean psychological projection, because you would be using the term incorrectly. I'm making no hysterical exaggerations of possibilities here.

Yes, that's exactly what I meant. The article does not contain anything about boiling oceans, and no one said anything about it. You are projecting your biases, evidenced by the term 'Chicken Little'.

[andyt]

Caleb you're not using the term projection correctly if it's meant in the psychological sense, so no wonder he's confused. If he was projecting the term "Chicken Little" it would mean he himself foresees doom but claims others do. I think what you mean is he's making strawman or reductio or ad absurdum arguments.

[DrCaleb]

andyt andyt:

Caleb you're not using the term projection correctly if it's meant in the psychological sense, so no wonder he's confused. If he was projecting the term "Chicken Little" it would mean he himself foresees doom but claims others do. I think what you mean is he's making strawman or reductio or ad absurdum arguments.

Ah, ok. I are Engeneer. Not brane guy.

I am saying that he's using the same tactics that the Deniers use, to cloud the issue with things nobody said and arguments from the fringe that no one was using. Reductio ad Absurdum fits just fine.

[andyt]

Strawman and red herring are also important go to tactics for them. Oh, don't forget ad hominem.