[N_Fiddledog]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

Here's the NOAA PDO page:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

That is interesting. To the untrained eye it does look more negative. I wonder what it means. I'm going to have to wait to hear from the people who know. I'll look around.

The PDO is positive right now, because the ocean is 2-4 deg C warmer than usual not far off BC. The SOI is neagtive, indicating (at this point) a moderate El Nino. The sun is just coming off a minor solar maximum. Arctic Oscillation is currently positive. Lots of wet weather for BC over the next week.

What I was thinking though is maybe we're just looking at a developing El Nino right now and need to wait a while to start talking about a flip in the PDO.

I remember vaguely hearing something about how the PDO flips happen in 30 year trends. Is that not correct? We only flipped about 6 or 7 years ago, didn't we?

[Zipperfish]

It's just positive right now after being negative for a while. Not sure if it's a flip or an outlier. The PDO discovery is still kind of new. It may have more than one periodicity.

[DrCaleb]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:

...The skeptic site then says:...

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltren ... trends.htm

According to this page Japan is going to drown well before the rest of the world does.

One factor in disappearing shorelines is what happens when all that mass is dropped onto the land. Japan is on a fault zone and barely floating above the mantle of the Earth, so as we saw with the Tsunami a couple years ago a little water on land will cause the land to sink and allow even more water on to it - causing it to sink further. that's what made the tsunami far worse than predicted, because no one knew the land would sink so much under the weight all that water.

Everyone's favorite climatologist, James Hansen and colleagues, just did a computer simulation of what is to be expected given certain sea level rises, and place like Japan and the West coast of North America didn't do so well because they are located above pockets of magma. Added weight of sea water sunk the land faster than the tides rose, and the predicted 10 foot waves turned into 50 foot ones.