[PostFactum]

Russians army in Crimea. They put Russian flag on crimea government. Some media say about Russian tanks in Zaporizska oblast. I think this is war.

[andyt]

Not war because who will fight against them? Invasion, annexation, possibly.

Good to see you're OK.

Postfactum meet Kazakh, Kazakh - Postfactum. (duck)

[Gunnair]

PostFactum PostFactum:

Russians army in Crimea. They put Russian flag on crimea government. Some media say about Russian tanks in Zaporizska oblast. I think this is war.

Agree with, Andy. Hate to say it, but unless the west finds a backbone, it's annexation.

Keep your head down.

[Delwin]

Well, reports are coming in that Obama just unfriended Putin on Facebook, and it's believed that if things escalate, he may stop following him on twitter. After that, there are talks about possibly removing him from the Presidential Christmas card list, so I doubt Putin is going to risk all that.

[commanderkai]

I think the most interesting thing is that the US and UK agreed to protect Ukraine's borders if they gave up on the nuclear stockpiles left there after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Basically, to everyone in Eastern Europe: build nuclear weapons. The West won't protect you.

[Gunnair]

commanderkai commanderkai:

I think the most interesting thing is that the US and UK agreed to protect Ukraine's borders if they gave up on the nuclear stockpiles left there after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Basically, to everyone in Eastern Europe: build nuclear weapons. The West won't protect you.

Yep.

Dear, Putin,

Enjoy.

Love the west.

[andyt]

So the West should roll tanks into western Ukraine?

The situation is still way too fluid. Yes, the West is reacting, rather than acting like Russia, but again, should they really roll tanks? I think they're still trying to keep Ukraine together and not stir the pot, tho the pot does seem to be being stirred.

I think sanctions are about the only game the West has to play. That takes time, and would only work with a unified front. I'm not even sure that exists.

[Gunnair]

andyt andyt:

So the West should roll tanks into western Ukraine?

The situation is still way too fluid. Yes, the West is reacting, rather than acting like Russia, but again, should they really roll tanks? I think they're still trying to keep Ukraine together and not stir the pot, tho the pot does seem to be being stirred.

I think sanctions are about the only game the West has to play. That takes time, and would only work with a unified front. I'm not even sure that exists.

Yes, maybe tanks need to roll into western Ukraine if Ukraine asks. I don't see sanctions as working, frankly. This ain't Syria.

[martin14]

commanderkai commanderkai:

Basically, to everyone in Eastern Europe: build nuclear weapons. The West won't protect you.

This, sadly.


Talk about being between a rock and a hard place.

[andyt]

If Ukraine asks, that's a different matter. That's ipso facto partition right there tho, which the west is still trying to avoid.

Also, by the time the west gets geared up to roll tanks, wouldn't Russia already be able to occupy all of Ukraine if it wanted? My guess (I have been known to be wrong) is that Russia only wants or at least plans on keeping the Crimea.

Sanctions would work, I think, if stringently applied. The thing is we'd have to give up Russian oil and gas. Doubt anybody is prepared to do so.

[Delwin]

Obama's statement yesterday was astoundingly weak. Putin picked up on that and knows now that he can act with impunity. He is the only leader out there with a set of nuts and that is going to carry him a long way with regards to the future of Europe.

This started with Obama's political missteps with regards to Syria and the "Red line". Obama's statements are now viewed as nothing more that hot air and the whole world can see that.

This isn't just going to embolden Russia, but also anyone in the world with a grievance towards the US.

[BRAH]

The question is how will NATO react to Russia expanding it's influence.

[martin14]

andyt andyt:

If Ukraine asks, that's a different matter. That's ipso facto partition right there tho, which the west is still trying to avoid.

Also, by the time the west gets geared up to roll tanks, wouldn't Russia already be able to occupy all of Ukraine if it wanted? My guess (I have been known to be wrong) is that Russia only wants or at least plans on keeping the Crimea.

Some tanks are already there.
I guess the Russians could be across Ukraine in 2-3 days.
Not much to stop them.

EU tanks couldn't make it out of the hangers that fast.

$1:

Sanctions would work, I think, if stringently applied. The thing is we'd have to give up Russian oil and gas. Doubt anybody is prepared to do so.

It's not possible andy.
75-80% of the natural gas the EU uses is from Russia.
As soon as anyone says 'sanctions', those taps are turned off.

The important bit is that gas is used to heat the vast majority of houses in Europe, and it is still winter here.

It needs to be war or nothing, and I don't see the balls for a war against Russia
anywhere in the EU.

Not for Ukraine, that's for sure.


The question is will Russia just replace the new government, or will they
carve out a piece of Ukraine for themselves..

[martin14]

BRAH BRAH:

The question is how will NATO react to Russia expanding it's influence.

Nothing.

Ukraine has always been in Russia's sphere, even if they don't want to.

[andyt]

martin14 martin14:

commanderkai commanderkai:

Basically, to everyone in Eastern Europe: build nuclear weapons. The West won't protect you.

This, sadly.


Talk about being between a rock and a hard place.

True for every country. You want respect, get nukes. That's why I can't blame Iran or NK for doing so, even if they are nutbars. They understand the calculus.

Maybe we should get some too.