No budget amendments, say Tories
No problem, says Dion
By Bruce Cheadle, THE CANADIAN PRESS
Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, wearing new eyeglasses, is applauded by Deputy Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff during Question Period on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Monday Feb 25, 2008. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Tom Hanson
OTTAWA - Weeks of furious political manoeuvring and rhetorical sabre-rattling come to a head Tuesday when the Conservative government delivers its 2008-09 budget and sets off a month-long steeple chase of confidence hurdles.
But a quick review of Politics for Dummies suggests that - barring a mistaken stumble - party self-interest will ensure Canadians aren't tripped into a spring election.
Public opinion has been remarkably static for many months, and another Harris/Decima opinion poll coming Tuesday is expected to maintain the trend line to nowhere.
The Conservatives routinely hold a small lead on the Liberals in minority-strength no-man's land. The NDP is mired in the mid-teens nationally. And flaccid support for the Bloc Quebecois is offset by a federalist split in Quebec among Tory and Liberal ranks.
On the face of it, Tuesday's federal budget appears unlikely to break the logjam.
Standard wisdom holds that Stephen Harper's Tories shot their bolt last fall with a mini-budget that delivered $60-billion in tax cuts over five years. With the North American economy faltering since then, the Fall Economic Update left little fiscal room for a fresh vote-buying spree this week - but it did include a finely calibrated time capsule.
Some $3.5 billion of retroactive income tax reductions for 2007-08 are about be realized by tax filers this spring.
Without committing a dime, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty need only lay out the promise of future income tax cuts Tuesday. His wishful prognostications will be given weight by all those fat refund cheques arriving in the mail in April.
The cash-flush Conservative party and the battle-hardened Harper are convinced they can out-campaign the Liberals and untested Stephane Dion, who will be in his first national election as party leader. Some influential Liberals quietly share that opinion.
Yet another signal of Tory bullishness was delivered Monday in the Commons in question period, when a friendly Conservative questioner asked if the government would be amenable to opposition budget amendments.
"Unlike the Liberals in previous years who amended their budget after it had been tabled, we will not accept any amendments that the Liberals would like to propose that will drive us into a deficit," responded a gleeful Ted Menzies, Flaherty's parliamentary secretary.
Dion couldn't even muster any phoney outrage at this latest Tory provocation.
"I never thought that we would be able to amend his budget anyway," he responded outside the House.
"So we'll see the budget and we'll react when we will have seen it."
It seems to be part of a Liberal pattern of sidestepping Tory-laid election triggers.
On Monday, a Senate committee heard from its last witness on the government's omnibus crime legislation. It's expected Bill C-2 will be sent to the full Senate chamber by the end of the day Tuesday after clause-by-clause examination. That sets the stage for the legislation to clear the Liberal-dominated upper House by the end of this week and meet the Harper government's entirely arbitrary deadline.
Also Monday, debate began in the Commons on a votable confidence motion to extend the military mission in Afghanistan to 2011. Given the compromises already reached by both Conservatives and Liberals, the vote set for late March appears all but assured of passing.
In a French-language interview at the end of last year that was largely overlooked in the English media, Dion said he found inspiration in the example of Prince Mikhail Kutuzov, the Russian general who allowed Napoleon's armies to overrun Moscow before he finally rounded on their starving ranks and defeated Napoleon in 1812.
Dion, in retreat, appears to be hoping the looming economic downturn in the United States eventually will do to the Conservatives what the Russian winter did to Napoleon's forces.
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