Zipperfish Zipperfish:
Scape Scape:
Jingles is ex-british Navy. His take on why Russia invaded (water, oil and gas to Crimea) is spot on. Only once the land bridge to Crimea was secured and the water access was firmly in Russian hands did Putin start peace talks. Putin now has what he needs, he may have hoped Ukraine imploded so he could sack the country but he doesn't need the whole country to secure the Crimea and that was the whole point of the invasion.
Doesn't add up. Shelling civilian areas and civilians in humanitarian corridors is just about pointless from a military perspective. It does two things--it terrorizes the population (if that's the point it's not working) and it draws others in to the war. Can't help but think that Putin is trying to draw NATO into a war.
Handbrake turn Caspian report does a great analysis (again) on why the Russians are shelling civilians. Essentially they are working now on the 4th case scenario. The shelling of civilians is to force the Ukrainians to the table as they know NATO will never step in to the fight with a no-fly to save the cities. This is also a page from the 2008 playbook where they ground the population into the dust so they can never hope to catch up with the Russians after the peace is established.
The longer the war goes on the more damage the sanctions will do to the Russian economy and the west is trying to bleed the Russians white by supplying anti-tank, anti-air and drones to the Ukrainians. This is an act of war and every day this drags on brings us that much closer to article 5 being invoked. However, the Ukrainians are not rolling over as expected by either the Russians or the West. The foreign legion at last count is already at 20k and who knows how many of those are special operatives. The shelling is going to be the entire country in the coming days and they are going to attack anything and everything like the battle of Britain when the Germans shifted focus from the airfields and radar to bombing cities.
It will have the same results, Russia will lose and has already lost but it's not going down without taking Ukraine down 1st.