SprCForr SprCForr:
Can you provide a specific example?
WWI
- command on all sides conceptualizing the war (contrary to all available evidence) like the wars of the past.
WWII
- Most of American Pacific Naval command flat out denying the value of aircraft. Overvaluing battleships like those that naval battles in WWI were fought with.
- undervaluation of heavy armor until it was rolling through France.
- much of the docterine at the time was based on the experiences of trench warfare and thus woefully inadequate to deal with blitzkreig (a form of which *was* practiced in the last part of WWI).
The Iraq war
-assumption by many that it would be won like the first gulf war was won when a little forethought told anyone that there would be a signifigant and prolonged urban conflict. The US is just now buying some Golan urban combat vehicles from Israel. They don't need Bradleys or Abrams to patrol the streets, but that's what they had because that's what the last war there was fought with.
SprCForr SprCForr:
It seems to me that it's been a problem for any organization or person for that matter to predict the future. While that simplistic maxim may have applied in the past, I don't think it's applicable today. Going back to '96, would anyone have been able to predict the rise of AQ and the Taliban to where it is today? I'd say no. Go back to '89. The Cold War was in full swing. Did anyone see the collapse (it seemed like overnight) of the USSR? No again. Who will be the "enemy" in 15 years?
It's not so much that things change, it's that command dosent. With the collape of the soviet union it took over a decade for programs like the Comache helicoptor to be cancelled. The Comache had one purpose: to help destroy Soviet armor in the event of an invasion of Western Europe. That's what that was geared for, yet it took over ten years after the fall of the USSR for that program to be scrapped.
$1:
So we develop the means to fight an entrenched, continuous line of enemy? Or a cavalry charge? We haven't had to do that in recent history.
See, that's the exact thinking that causes the problem. "Havent faced in recent history" != "have faced in history waaaay back". That's still thinking in terms of the past.
Hiller said Canada dosent need tanks because we don't do anything that requires them. How does he know we won't need them? He dosen't, he said that because he was ready to fight the last war/conflct Canada was in.