[saturn_656]

Jabberwalker Jabberwalker:

I see that Russia is starting to position themselves for a move on Estonia. This is an entirely different situation than with Crimea ... or even with the Ukraine.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... J620140319

You can see this one coming but that doesn't mean that it is not gravely serious.

If Russia steps into Estonia and NATO does not respond with deadly force, the alliance will be dead.

Putin will get to be the man who destroyed it.

We'd better be ready.

[xerxes]

But again the question will be: Is Estonia worth WW3?

[martin14]

xerxes xerxes:

But again the question will be: Is Estonia worth WW3?

Was Poland worth WW2 ?


Was Serbia worth WW1 ?


Was Vietnam worth 50,000 dead Americans ?


Was Afghanistan worth 158 of ours ?



Buck has to stop somewhere..

[ShepherdsDog]

Will Poland...Lithuania....Latvia? A line has to be drawn somewhere. I guess NATO treaties mean nothing

[saturn_656]

xerxes xerxes:

But again the question will be: Is Estonia worth WW3?

Some probably think it isn't, but where do we draw the line then?

Hungary? Romania? Poland? Germany?

What would it take for us to push back? How far would they get?

[xerxes]

Good points. But's be realistic. If Russia makes a move on Estonia or Moldova or Eastern Ukraine, NATO isn't going to do much. The costs of war (from a financial perspective to start) are too great to make Estonia worth fighting for. Sure, more and more sanctions will be slapped on Russia and they might even end up hurting after a while, but again I bet Putin is correctly guessing that NATO and the EU won't do much to save lowly Estonia as he looks to create the USSR 2.0.

[xerxes]

saturn_656 saturn_656:

xerxes xerxes:

But again the question will be: Is Estonia worth WW3?

Some probably think it isn't, but where do we draw the line then?

Hungary? Romania? Poland? Germany?

What would it take for us to push back? How far would they get?

Russia will have to fire the first shots and only then. He managed to pull off the most peaceful annexation of territory I think in the history of ever and I have to commend the Ukrainian's for resisting what must have been an overpowering urge to fight back even though it would have been grossly in vain.

[xerxes]

ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:

Will Poland...Lithuania....Latvia? A line has to be drawn somewhere. I guess NATO treaties mean nothing

Words are wind.

[westmanguy]

Its not just the cost. Its the symbolism. If NATO is to mean ANYTHING, than Russia violating the sovereignty of Estonia - an EU and NATO member - must be met with direct and swift force.

If not, NATO collapses and the West has no faith in its alliances and international relations gets a major shake up. The situation gets even worse as if that happens Russia will be further emboldened.

So questions like "Is Estonia worth WWIII?" (or a major war) seem like the on the surface "No...", but it represents so much more in the ways of NATO being worth the paper its written on.

Russia better tread carefully. I do think the West is preoccupied with its own domestic issues, but I still have faith that the NATO alliance is worth something. I hope.

[martin14]

xerxes xerxes:

but again I bet Putin is correctly guessing that NATO and the EU won't do much to save lowly Estonia as he looks to create the USSR 2.0.

Maybe.

Estonia is a full member of the EU, and uses the Euro.

They are also a full member of NATO.


If neither will go to bat for one of their own, the EU especially will fall apart.

[westmanguy]

^^^ That's why I think too.

Yah its "lowly" Estonia, but its the faith and confidence of the Euro Zone and NATO as international institutions. If the West doesn't go to bat for Estonia, there could be a major collapse of those systems.

[saturn_656]

xerxes xerxes:

saturn_656 saturn_656:

xerxes xerxes:

But again the question will be: Is Estonia worth WW3?

Some probably think it isn't, but where do we draw the line then?

Hungary? Romania? Poland? Germany?

What would it take for us to push back? How far would they get?

Russia will have to fire the first shots and only then. He managed to pull off the most peaceful annexation of territory I think in the history of ever and I have to commend the Ukrainian's for resisting what must have been an overpowering urge to fight back even though it would have been grossly in vain.

Estonia definitely won't be attacking first.

If we are going to have red lines anywhere, they have to be the borders of NATO countries. From Estonia right up to the US. Russia needs to be aware that crossing those lines will have extreme consequences.

[BeaverFever]

martin14 martin14:

xerxes xerxes:

But again the question will be: Is Estonia worth WW3?

Was Poland worth WW2 ?


Was Serbia worth WW1 ?


Was Vietnam worth 50,000 dead Americans ?



Buck has to stop somewhere..

Why do you only cosider the American deaths worthy of cosideration in Vietnam? An estimated 3.8 million people died violent deaths realted to the Vietnam War Shouldn't that number be the question, rather than just the 50,000 Americans?

[andyt]

Estonia is in NATO. If NATO is to mean anything anymore then yes, it must be defended even at the cost of WW III. Just read an article that said Crimea has made NATO relevant again. Estonia would prove if that was true or not.

[westmanguy]

Lets hope for the sake of the global economy and a host of other issues, that Russia isn't stupid enough to make us find out...